Monday, October 24, 2011

20111024 0949 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures close little changed, pulling back from gains early in the session. Profit-taking and expectations for harvest to advance this weekend weighed on prices, analysts say. Brokerage firm Country Hedging predicts harvest will be almost 70% complete in USDA's weekly crop report Monday, up from 47% a week earlier. Yet, the losses could not wipe out gains from earlier this week. CBOT December corn ends down 1/4c at $6.49 1/4/bushel, up 1.4% for the week.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures finish little changed as grain markets pared gains ahead of the close. Profit-taking and a setback in corn prices pressured the markets, traders say. Wheat lacks strong export demand for support as Russia continues to undercut US grain prices on the world market. "It's been tough to find buyers," says Dave Marshall, an independent grain analyst. CBOT December wheat ends up 1 1/4c at $6.32/bushel as KCBT December slips 2c to $7.23 and MGEX December rises 1 3/4c to $9.19 1/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures close higher on worries about crop losses due to severe flooding in Thailand, the world's top exporter of the grain. Floodwaters reached Bangkok, and some towns were under water more than six feet high. "These floods in Thailand are pretty darn serious. It's going to drive the price of rice up," says Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading. CBOT November rice jumps 9c to $16.40 1/2/hundredweight.

Corn up for 2nd day, harvest pressure limits gains
SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) - U.S. corn and wheat rose half a percent, gaining for a second straight day in cautious optimism ahead of a weekend meeting of European leaders on the region's debt crisis.  
"The markets seems to be reacting positively but if you look at it realistically the rally may not last as there is nothing very concrete, it's just speculations about possible resolution to the debt crisis," said Lynette Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

India, Pakistan rice exports to rise- trade officials
HO CHI MINH CITY, Oct 21 (Reuters) - India, the world's second-largest rice producer after China, is forecast to produce 102 million tonnes of rice in the 2011/2012 season, up around 3 percent from the previous season, an executive at a rice export company said on Friday.
The country, which returned to the market in September with a plan to ship 2 million tonnes of non-basmati rice by March 2012, has 5 million tonnes set aside for export, Chairman Karan Chanana of the New Delhi-based Amira group told Reuters.
Ukraine grain export duties expire on Oct.22
KIEV, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Export duties on Ukrainian wheat and maize will expire on Saturday, according to a law published on Friday.
Ukraine imposed the duties in July and traders have said the measure slashed Ukrainian exports as Ukrainian-origin grain proved unable to compete with cheaper Russian exports.

India won't allow food grain exports from govt stocks-min
NEW DELHI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - India, the world's second-biggest wheat and rice producer, will not allow overseas sale of food grains from government stocks, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said on Friday.
"No, we want to be cautious and government has not allowed exports from government stocks," Thomas said when asked whether such grain exports would be permitted.

China 2012 rice import seen steady at 700,000T-govt
HO CHI MINH CITY, Oct 21 (Reuters) - China's milled rice import demand in 2012 is expected to be  around 700,000 tonnes, similar to this year due to sufficient stock while market prices would remain high, a government official said on Friday.
The 2012 import, equivalent to around 1 million tonnes of rough rice, or paddy, would come from Thailand and Vietnam, the official from the government-run National Grain and Oilseeds Information Center told Reuters, adding that the higher-priced Thai grain would meet demand for the luxury market.

High rice prices to hit Thai, Vietnam exports
HO CHI MINH CITY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - High prices may lead to a 30 percent cut in rice shipments from top exporter Thailand next year and No. 2 seller Vietnam may be unable to increase its export volumes as buyers turn to cheaper rice from India, traders and industry officials said.
India, the world's second-biggest producer, eased curbs on exports last month and its grain is around $100 a tonne cheaper than Thai and Vietnamese rice, they said at a rice conference in Vietnam.

US Grain Exports- China buys, corn sales hit 7-mth high
CHICAGO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - A big U.S. corn purchase by China propelled export sales of the grain last week to a near seven-month high, although the sales fell short of trade expectations, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data released early on Thursday.
USDA confirmed a large purchase by the emerging corn importer last week, along with a sizable sale to undisclosed buyers. But absent those sales, the week's tally was disappointing, analysts said.

EU clears 296,000 tonnes wheat exports this week
PARIS, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The European Union this week granted export licences for 296,000 tonnes of soft wheat, taking the total since the beginning of the 2011/12 (July-June) season to 4.35 million tonnes, official data showed on Thursday.
The total so far this season remained well below the volume seen at the same stage in 2010/11, when 7.7 million tonnes of export licences had been cleared, the data showed.

EU wheat sowing going well in good weather
HAMBURG, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Wheat sowing in key European Union producing countries is progressing well in favourable weather and farmers may be choosing wheat over other grains and oilseeds, analysts said on Thursday.
"The EU could be heading for a slightly larger wheat harvested area in 2012 but sowing problems in Germany could cut the rapeseed area," one analyst said. "Overall a good start has been made with wheat and plants in the main producing countries in good shape to face the winter."

Russian grain harvesting 91.6 percent over - AgMin
MOSCOW, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russia had harvested 93.4 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by Oct. 18, up from 62.2 million by the same date last year but down from 98.2 million tonnes two years ago, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Thursday.
Russia officially expects to harvest 90-92 million tonnes of grain this year, up from 61 million in 2010, when it was hit by a drought, the most severe in decades, but les than the 97 million tonnes reaped in 2009.  

Rains slow harvesting in eastern US Midwest; Plains parched
CHICAGO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Overall good harvest weather continued in the U.S. Midwest with the exception of the soggy eastern part of the region, including much of the northern Ohio River Valley, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday.
"Most of the Midwest is okay but there was a lot of rain in the eastern Corn Belt especially in Ohio, Michigan and eastern Indiana," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

Nearly 2.5M Hectares Of Crops Destroyed By SE Asia Floods - FAO (Source: CME)
The devastating floods that have left hundreds dead in south-east Asia may cause further problems for the region as millions of hectares of crops have been destroyed, the United Nations warned. Intense monsoon rains, typhoons and tropical storms have flooded more than 2.5 million hectares of cropland in Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, according to research by the Food and Agriculture Organization. Meanwhile, millions of animals have already been killed and millions are thought to be at risk from the flood waters and already overspilling damns. In worst-hit Thailand, 1.6 million hectares--12.5% of the area under crops nationwide--has been flooded, along with an estimated 12% of acreage in the Philippines and 7.5% of plantings in Cambodia. "The floods occurred when the current main wet season cereal crops were in the field, with paddy rice at the initial to mid growing stage, and maize at an advance critical flowering stage," said the FAO.
"Loss of livestock and poultry is reported and significant numbers are considered to be at risk."

India Won't Allow Foodgrain Exports From Govt Stocks - Minister (Source: CME)
India won't allow any grain exports from surplus government stocks as it is worried about high food inflation and wants to preserve supplies to meet a proposed food security law, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said. "We have to be cautious as we will need enough foodgrains...once we introduce the food security law," he told reporters. The food security law, which guarantees cheap grain supplies to the majority of the country's population, is expected to be introduced in parliament in December.

Czech Republic's 2011 Grain Harvest Showed Record Yields - USDA (Source: CME)
Grain production in the Czech Republic rose almost 20% on the year to 8.2 million metric tons in 2011 as farmers harvested a record yielding crop, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. "This year's harvest is one of the best in the last decade" with yields jumping to an average of 5.62 tons a hectare and most grain of good quality, the USDA's Prague attache said in a note. "Sufficient exportable surplus of milling wheat is anticipated," it said. For next year, farmers are expected to continue to expand plantings of the most lucrative crops, including wheat, corn and rapeseed, at the expense of grains such as barley and rye, the attache added.

Argentina's Kirchner, Farmers Make Peace Ahead Of Second Term (Source: CME)
With reelection almost certain this Sunday, Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner is actively courting the support of farmers who nearly four years ago blocked highways to protest her attempt to hike taxes on grain producers. Argentina is blessed with some of the world's most productive farmland, ranking No. 1 in global soymeal and soyoil exports, and second in corn exports. Taxes on grain exports provide significant revenue to the federal government. Those exports are also the country's single largest source of hard currency. Grain export dollars have allowed Argentina to run a hefty trade surplus for years as well as accumulate international reserves that the government taps to pay its creditors. Farmers still grumble about the government's policy of limiting corn and wheat exports to keep food prices low at the expense of producers. But with Kirchner on the cusp of winning a second, four-year term with an overwhelming mandate from voters, many farm groups have decided to make peace with the government.
Kirchner made the unprecedented gesture on Monday of attending a three-hour lunch and meeting with representatives of farm group Coninagro, whose leaders have been among her most vocal critics over the past three years. "A new phase has opened up with the government," Coninagro president Carlos Garetto said in televised comments after the meeting at the group's headquarters. "Neither the farmers nor the government want conflict," he said. "The state needs the farmers and the farmers need the state." High global prices for soy and grains have also helped both sides smooth over the lingering resentment from the 2008 strike. Soybean prices on the local grain exchange have risen 8% this year, and global corn prices are up about 17%, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Even the conservative Argentine Rural Society, which historically represented the cattle barons and big landowners who dominated politics in the early 20th century, is cautiously optimistic about the government's peace overtures.
"It's an important change of attitude [but] it doesn't mean that there is going to be a change in the policies nor does it mean that she's going to recognize that our demands are right," Rural president Hugo Biolcati told Radio 10. Kirchner could receive as much as 55% of the vote this Sunday, giving her a nearly 40-point lead over the nearest challenger and easily surpassing the threshold to avoid a runoff, according to respected pollster Poliarquia. Her Frente Para La Victoria coalition, which claims to represent the populist-nationalist movement founded by former President Juan Domingo Peron in the 1940s, is also poised to retake control of Congress. In recent months, Kirchner has sought to mend fences with disaffected farmers and industrialists in what some analysts say is a precursor to a grand social pact early next year to correct some of the more serious distortions of her high growth, high inflation policies.
While the government has made it clear that the export limits are here to stay, Kirchner is keen to get farmers' support for a 10-year plan aimed at lifting agricultural production 60% between now and 2020. The government wants to increase grain output 50% to 150 million metric tons from the record crop harvested during the 2010-11 season, while beef production is seen rising 70% thanks to the use of feedlots. Those ambitious targets are feasible with the use of biotechnology and increasing the amount of farmland, brokerage Panagricola vice president Ricardo Baccarin said in a phone interview. Farmers are looking forward to another gangbuster harvest this season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest forecast puts the 2011-12 soy crop at 53 million metric tons, the second-largest ever, while corn production is expected to smash all records at 27.5 million tons.

ICE sugar, coffee firm as commodities recover
LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - ICE raw sugar, cocoa and arabica coffee futures firmed in early trade on Friday, tracking a broad-based recovery in other commodity markets as stocks bounced after France and Germany said a comprehensive euro zone debt deal was on its way.
Uncertainty about the euro zone's resolution of its debt crisis was likely to cap gains.Raw sugar futures were firmer, with the market focused on news on when Indian exports may be authorised.

China 2011/12 cotton consumption seen down-report
NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Cotton consumption in China, the world's top consumer of the fiber, is seen falling over 5 percent in 2011/12 to 9.4 million tonnes, industry publication Cotlook said on Thursday.
Cotlook said the use of cotton by China "has undergone a further downward adjustment, principally as a result of a decrease in projected mill use of raw cotton in China, where a modest net decline in consumption is now foreseen."

Costa Rica coffee harvest suffers some damage from rains
SAN JOSE, Costa Rica, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Torrential rains in Costa Rica caused an estimated loss of at least 23,000 60-kg bags and that number could rise as plant disease spreads in the country's soaked fields, the national coffee institute said on Thursday.
Officials at the institute, known as ICAFE, had forecast coffee production at around 1.58 million 60-kg bags for the 2011/12 crop that began in October.

Euro Coal-Price slide continues at $1.50 a day
LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices on Thursday fell by $1.00-1.50 for the fourth day running as traders and utilities sold fourth-quarter cargoes in expectation of further price falls.
The stagnation which has plagued the coal market for most of this year may be over, they said, now that prices have broken out of their range on the downside and continued to fall.

Brent crude oil steady above $109 before EU summits
LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude held above $109 per barrel as financial markets awaited two key summits of European leaders to agree a solution to the euro zone's debt crisis.
"The big risk for markets is that EU leaders don't deliver what is expected: a solution to the debt crisis," said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Oil Gains a Second Day Before European Debt Summit; Brent Premium Widens (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil rose for a second day in New York before European leaders meet this week to agree on a blueprint to tackle the region’s sovereign debt crisis. London- traded Brent’s premium to U.S. crude widened. Futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent after earlier declining 0.5 percent. European leaders yesterday outlined plans to aid banks while ruling out using the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to boost the region’s rescue fund. They may agree to a complete plan at a summit on Oct. 26. Saudi Arabia, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ largest oil producer, is waiting for a successor to the crown prince after the death of Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. “The market is still riding on optimism,” said Jonathan Barratt, a managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Crude did come off a little bit and it might have something to do with a little bit of nervousness in terms of control on compliance in OPEC after the Sultan passed away.”

S.Korea's Sept crude oil imports up 7.5 pct y/y -KNOC
SEOUL, Oct 21 (Reuters) - South Korea's crude imports in September rose 7.5 percent from a year earlier thanks to bullish regional demand for oil products, while the country's year-on-year crude runs were lower in the month due to some maintenance shutdown.
Crude imports by the world's fifth-largest crude buyer rose to 80.6 million barrels last month from 74.9 million barrels a year ago, state-run Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) said on Friday.

Australia's Indo Mines plans $1 bln Indonesia iron project-govt
JAKARTA, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Australia's Indo Mines  is to start construction of a $1 billion project on Indonesia's Java island in December, to begin operations in at least three years to produce 9-15 million tonnes of iron ore a year, a government official said on Friday.
The joint venture will involve PT Jogja Magasa Iron, which will own a 30 percent stake in the project, said Mudrajad Kuncoro, a local government official in Yogyakarta, central Java.

Iron Ore-Spot eyeing biggest weekly fall since July 2010
SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Spot iron prices slid to their lowest in a year and are set to post their biggest weekly decline in 15 months as demand from top importer China remained thin, fuelling expectations prices could drop further.
Weaker demand for steel in China, the world's biggest consumer and producer, dragged down steel prices and slashed appetite for iron ore, the key steelmaking raw material.

Baltic index rises for 2nd day, capes drive gains
LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose for a second day on Thursday helped by firmer demand for larger capesize vessels hauling iron ore and coal to China.
The overall index rose 21 points or 0.98 percent to 2,161 points.

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