Tuesday, October 11, 2011

20111011 0959 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures ended higher, driven by broader-based commodity buying on easing global economic fears. Signs of progress in euro-zone debt crisis triggered selling in US dollar and, in turn, attracted buyers to USD-denominated commodities, analysts say. USD's slide took outside pressure off soybeans, opening the door for prices to consolidate after setting new autumn lows last week, says John Kleist, ebottrading.com senior analyst. Traders actively covered some recently sold positions heading toward Wednesday's government crop report, but farmer and commercial selling emerging on the rally capped the day's advances, Kleist adds. CBOT Nov soy end up 19 1/4c or 1.4% at $11.77 1/2/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures closed higher, fueled by a broader based commodity rally and spillover support from higher soybean prices. Soymeal and soyoil were also supported by optimistic outlooks for demand emerging after recent price breaks, analysts say. CBOT Dec soymeal ended up $4.20 higher at $308.50/short ton, and Dec soyoil was up 0.79c at 50.11 cents/pound.

US Soy Production Seen Up On Harvest Results (Source: CME)
Favorable yield results from the 2011 U.S. soybean harvest have most analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipating a modest increase on Wednesday in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 2011 soybean crop projection. USDA is scheduled to release its latest forecast for production, inventories and demand on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). Most analysts look for yields to be increased in the report, but uncertainty has been raised about the potential for lost acres, as USDA incorporates reductions in the number of acres affected by flooding or drought reported by the USDA's Farm Service Agency. In recent weeks, several private firms have released crop estimates that were above the USDA's September forecast.
"Despite concerns over finishing weather in many areas of the Midwest, soybean yields have generally exceeded expectations, as a result, we have increased our national bean yield 1.2 bushels per acre from our September estimate," analysts at the Linn Group in Chicago wrote in a pre-report market letter. For October, the USDA will forecast the soybean harvest at 3.094 billion bushels, up 0.3% from its estimate a month ago, according to the average prediction of 23 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Estimates ranged from 3.050 billion to 3.162 billion bushels. The survey predicts the USDA will forecast the average yield at 42.0 bushels an acre, 0.4% above last month's estimate. Estimates ranged from 41.0 bushels to 42.9 bushels an acre.
There is still some uncertainty surrounding soybean yields, as generally favorable yield reports from harvests could by offset by a reduction in yields from fields that were nipped by frost in the northern Midwest, said Don Roose, president Iowa-based brokerage U.S. Commodities. Meanwhile, the government's outlook on the balance between supply and demand is expected to experience some adjustments in relation to the change in 2011-12 production and beginning stocks. "If U.S. output rises just 22 million bushels, limited adjustments in bean's 2011/12 balance sheet are likely," Jerry Gidel, analyst with North America Risk Management Services, said. Domestically, more dramatic changes in U.S. livestock numbers are needed for soybeans' crush level to change much at this time, and the current strong protein demand from Asia and particularly China isn't likely to abate, so not making further cuts in U.S. exports until South America's prospects are better known seems a more prudent approach, he added.
As for the end of the crop year, the average of 20 analysts' estimates pegged inventories as of Aug. 31, 2012 at 181 million bushels, up from the September forecast of 165 million bushels. The estimates ranged from 153 million to 255 million bushels, reflecting uncertainty about 2011 production. In the Sept. 30 USDA Quarterly Stocks report, the government reported 2010-11 ending stocks at 215 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from its estimate on Sept. 12. On the world balance sheet, analysts do not anticipate any changes to Brazil or Argentina's crop projections at this time, but modest reduction in China output is possible.

Palm rises on export data, economic outlook
JAKARTA, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil rose almost 2 percent, with prices supported by export data in second largest producer Malaysia and hopes that Europe's debt crisis will be resolved soon, but gains are expected to be capped by rising inventories.
"Looks like the downward trend may want to continue," said a Kula Lumpur-based trader. "Trading was rather cautious ahead of the MPOB."

China projected to import 14.2 mln T soy in 4Q -CNGOIC
BEIJING, Oct 10 (Reuters) - China will likely import a total of 14.2 million tonnes of soybeans in the last quarter, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center said in its daily report on Monday.
If the projection is confirmed, that would be a 3.0 percent fall from 14.64 million tonnes it imported in the same period last year.

Rains spread into Brazil's main soy belt - Somar
SAO PAULO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Heavy rain is expected in Brazil's main southern soybean producing states over the weekend, and important center-west states will get widespread  rainfall later next week, local forecasters Somar said on Friday.
Planting has started in the early-planting center-west states despite the absence of widespread rains. Growers in isolated areas of the No.1 soy producing state of Mato Grosso in the region have seen sufficient showers to begin planting.

India could burn fingers with aid to domestic palm refiners
KUALA LUMPUR/NEW DELHI, Oct 7 (Reuters) - India's plan to hike a domestic levy on refined palm oil, designed to protect its refiners from cheaper exports by top palm oil producer Indonesia, will backfire in the absence of  rival suppliers to meet the appetite of the south Asian nation.  
The world's top edible oil buyer could end up spending more on Indonesian crude palm oil , which has risen as high as $84 over benchmark Malaysian futures  after Indonesia raised taxes on the crude in the middle of September.

U.S. soy stocks bolstered by weak exports
CHICAGO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean stocks are expected to rise 11 percent from a month ago due to high prices denting demand, but a government report next week is likely to keep its estimate of yield unchanged, analysts polled by Reuters said.
Global soybeans stocks are also expected to rise, but by less than 1 percent, the analysts said, ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply-demand report on Wednesday.

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