Tuesday, September 20, 2011

20110920 1032 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export down 16.4% to 978,087 tonnes for the period of 1~20 Sep 2011.
SGS CPO export down 17.4% to 967,859 tonnes for the period of 1~20 Sep 2011.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures dropped to their lowest levels in five-weeks, as investors continued to trim riskier positions from the market amid global economic concerns and seasonal pressure. Declining global equity markets and a stronger US dollar left investors concerned about soybean demand holding up in the face of a sluggish world economy, analysts say. Seasonal harvest weakness added to the mounting pressure on prices, as demand for the crop remains sluggish while grain buyers wait for cheaper prices once the harvest to pick up speed. CBOT Nov soy end down 19 1/2c at $13.36/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures stumbled in unison with soybeans, succumbing to the broader based selling pressures seen across asset classes. Concerns about slowing demand and increased availability of soybeans for crushing once the harvest begins attracted sellers to pin prices in negative territory, analysts say. CBT Dec soymeal end down 1.3% at $348.50/short ton, Dec soyoil drop 1.8% to 55.84 cents/pound.

Palm oil falls as global economic uncertainty grows
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell as Europe stumbled over attempts to solve the euro zone debt crisis, strengthening investor fears commodity demand growth may slow.
"Sentiment is rather weak. Exports are definitely slower in September but India's Diwali festival is coming up and there should be some support from there," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage, referring to the Hindu festival on Oct. 26.

Global Vegoil Prices To Fall In 4Q Amid U.S Harvest (Source: CME)
Global prices of oilseeds and vegetable oils will likely fall in the next few weeks as the current harvest in the U.S. gathers momentum but that won't change the medium-term bullish outlook, Thomas Mielke, editor-in-chief of Hamburg-based Oil World industry journal said. The prices of palm oil will fall in tandem with soybeans and soybean oil, he said. "There is the potential for some downward pressure in palm oil, but I see support at $1,000 a [metric] ton for [refined, bleached and deodorized] palm olein," free-on-board Malaysian ports, Mielke told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of an industry conference. RDB olein for October shipment was offered late last week around $1,095/ton, FOB Malaysian ports, he said. "The bullish supply-side fundamentals are apparently sufficiently discounted in the prices of soybean and corn but the harvest is now expanding, so prices will come under pressure," Mielke said.
He said the weak price sentiment may continue during the fourth quarter but by early 2012, bullish factors may become dominant again. Consumption of oils and fats will exceed production in 2011-12 and stocks-to-usage ratios of both oilseeds and oilmeals will fall to multi-year lows, Mielke noted. By the end of the current marketing year on August 31, global soybean stocks will be down by 6.6% to 71 million tons, he said. Consumption of vegetable oils by the biofuels sector will rise sharply this year, particularly in soybean oil exporting countries. This could cause a decline in its global trade by 3% to 9.8 million tons. Biofuels account for only about 12% of the total global demand for oils and fats but that has an outsized impact on prices, he said.
As the availability of soybean oil shrinks, the global dependence on palm oil has accelerated in the last six months and this is expected to rise further in 2011-12, absorbing the increase in production and therefore not resulting in fresh creation of a surplus, Mielke said. Global palm oil trade may rise to 39.3 million metric from 37.9 million tons in 2010-11, he said. In the next marketing year from Oct. 1, Indonesia's palm oil exports may rise to 18.2 million tons from 17.4 million tons estimated this year, while Malaysia's shipments may rise to 17.6 million tons from 17 million tons, he added.

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