Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures finish lower as some market participants worry the USDA may make a smaller-than-expected cut to its inventory forecast. The government, in a monthly crop report due Monday, is projected to tighten its supply outlook nearly 11%, according to a survey of analysts. However, that is less than what some had previously projected, notes Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting. That led to traders "deflating some of the price balloon ahead of the USDA report." CBOT December corn drops 14c to $7.34/bushel.
Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures closed lower as strength in the dollar fueled concerns about weakening demand. The rising greenback makes US grains less attractive to foreign buyers at a time when exporters are already struggling on the world market, analysts note. The US faces stiff competition for exports from countries in the Black Sea region like Russia. US wheat export sales are expected to be a lackluster 300-500K tons in a weekly report due Friday. CBOT December wheat slid 13 1/2c to $7.38/bushel while KCBT December shed 13c to $8.46 and MGEX December stumbled 18 1/4c to $9.08 1/4.
Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures close lower as traders book profits following a surge to contract highs last week. November rice has pulled back 3.2% since climbing to a fresh high Friday. Traders were taking money off the table ahead of a monthly USDA crop report that will update forecasts for supplies and demand. CBOT November rice slides 1.7% to $17.83/hundredweight.
Ukraine AgMin sees bumper wheat, maize exports 11/12
KIEV, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine plans to boost its grain harvest to 51 million tonnes in 2011 from 39.2 million a year ago and hopes to double exports to 24 million tonnes in the 2011/12 season, Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Wednesday.
Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters the former Soviet republic had harvested 22.2 million tonnes of wheat this year and had the capacity to ship abroad 10 million tonnes of the commodity in 2011/12, although current export restrictions were a big obstacle to this ambition.
EU wheat can hold its own against Russian export flood
PARIS, Sept 7 (Reuters) - European farmers will not have to struggle to sell their wheat this season, despite a flood of cheap Russian exports onto world markets as the EU benefits from ample internal demand and from its established African buyers.
Although it is very unlikely to repeat the hefty sales numbers from last season when it benefited from Russia's pullout of the market after a drought slashed crops, the 27-member bloc could sell all of its surplus this season, provided U.S. grains remain supported by weather problems, analysts and traders say.
US wheat falls for 2nd day on supply; corn, soy steady
SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures slid around half a percent, falling for a second straight day as the market was weighed down by higher supplies in Canada and an improved weather outlook in Australia.
"The market is in a holding pattern prior to the USDA report," said Adam Davis, a senior analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne.
Cropcast weather pegs US corn/soy output below USDA
CHICAGO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Cropcast, a weather information service widely watched by grain traders for its U.S. and global weather forecasts, on Wednesday estimated the 2011 U.S. corn and soybean harvests far below USDA's projections as a hot summer was seen stressing the crops.
Cropcast, a division of MDA Information Systems, forecast the U.S. corn crop at 11.913 billion bushels, reflecting an average yield 145.2 bushels per acre. That compares to USDA's August estimate of 12.914 billion bushels and an average yield of 153 bpa.
France raises maize outlook, sees bigger beet crop
PARIS, Sept 7 (Reuters) - France's farm ministry raised on Wednesday its outlook for the upcoming maize harvest, now expecting the crop to exceed last year's production.
This year's maize grain crop is now seen at 14.1 million tonnes, up from 13.3 million tonnes projected a month ago, and above last year's crop of 13.8 million tonnes.
Ukraine AgMin sees bumper wheat, maize exports 11/12
KIEV, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine plans to boost its grain harvest to 51 million tonnes in 2011 from 39.2 million a year ago and hopes to double exports to 24 million tonnes in the 2011/12 season, Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Wednesday.
Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters the former Soviet republic had harvested 22.2 million tonnes of wheat this year and expected to ship abroad 10 million tonnes of the commodity in 2011/12.
FAO: World Food Prices Nudge Lower In August (Source: CME)
World food prices nudged lower in August, as gains in cereal prices were counterbalanced by falls in oils/fats and dairy, the United Nations food body said. The Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index, based on a basket of food commodities, nudged lower by 0.4% to 231 points in August. This is up 26% compared with the same time last year, but down from the record 238 points in February this year. However, despite August's price fall the cereals index posted gains of 2.2% "stemming from a supply and demand balance that remains tight," the FAO said. The U.N. food body said the corn supply situation remained concerning due to downwards revisions to prospects in the U.S., the world's largest producer, after unfavorable weather in July and August.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month announced cuts to its forecasts for corn production as damaging heat took its toll on fields. Farmers in the U.S. are now forecast to produce 12.914 billion bushels of corn this year, 556 million bushels less than the USDA predicted in July. Still, gains in the cereals index were counterbalanced by significant falls in the oils/fats and dairy prices indexes. The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 221 points in August, down significantly from 228 points in July. "Downward movements in milk powder and casein prices, both of which dropped by 6% between July and August, were the main drivers behind this decline. Butter and cheese values also fell," the FAO said. The FAO Sugar Price Index fell 2% in August, to 394 points, helped by positive prospects for Europe, India and Thailand. But for now, immediate relief seems out of reach for the U.S. corn crop.
Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the FAO's Intergovernmental Group on Grains, said it was unlikely the U.S. Department of Agriculture would revise upwards production forecasts for corn production next week. "Because the buffers are low in corn and we aren't seeing any recovery in inventory, this will keep the grains market on edge this year," he said. "Still, the tone for the grains market will be set after results of the U.S. harvest and if output is better than expected it's possible we could even see a big correction to prices." The FAO forecast the world cereal harvest will hit 2.307 billion metric tons in 2011, almost 6 million tons lower than the July estimate but still higher than predictions earlier this year.
Food-Price Gains Driven by Chinese Consumers Defy Easing Global Inflation (Source: Bloomberg)
Rising food prices may be an exception to easing inflation worldwide, posing dilemmas for policy makers, particularly in emerging markets including China, panelists at a forum said today. A growing middle class seeking higher-protein foods is contributing to increased demand and prices, Abby Joseph Cohen, partner and senior U.S. investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), said at the Bloomberg Global Inflation Conference in New York hosted by Bloomberg Link. Central banks “should be concerned” about food-price inflation, said Roberto Rigobon, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor, while James Rickards, senior managing director of Tangent Capital Partners, said China risks harming employment if the country tries too hard to contain inflation. Their comments compare with signals today from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank that the inflation outlook is benign enough to allow further easing.
Corn Crop Shrinking as Hottest Summer Since ’55 Spurs Record Harvest Price (Source: Bloomberg)
The hottest summer since 1955 in parts of the Midwest has eroded corn yields in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, sending prices to record highs for the harvest season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 may cut its crop forecast for a second straight month, to 12.554 billion bushels, down 2.8 percent from an August projection of 12.914 billion, according to the average estimate of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Inventories before next year’s harvest will be the lowest since 1996, according to the survey. Cash-corn prices in Iowa and central Illinois, the two largest growing states, have risen at least 71 percent in the past year to the highest ever before harvesting began this month, government data show. Crops in parts of the Midwest were damaged by the hottest temperatures in more than 100 years, boosting costs for livestock producers including Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) and ethanol makers such as Poet LLC.
ICE coffee eases early, cocoa hits 3-week low
LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - ICE arabica coffee and cocoa futures fell in early trade, tracking modest setbacks in crude oil and many other commodity markets and weighed by a firmer dollar.
ICE arabica coffee futures eased as the market retreated further after rising last week to the highest level in nearly four months.
Philippines says may nearly double 2011/12 sugar export
MANILA, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Philippines' sugar exports in the current crop year ending August 2012 may climb around 86 percent from a year ago with a forecast surplus in domestic supply, the industry regulator said on Thursday, adding to the global oversupply.
More than a fourth, or 672,000 tonnes, of the Philippines' projected raw sugar output of 2.4 million tonnes in the 2011/2012 crop year can be sold to the United States and other countries, Regina Bautista-Martin, chief of state agency Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), told Reuters.
Vietnam has no coffee stocks at new season start-Vicofa
HANOI, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer after Brazil, will run out of beans soon and have no stocks to carry forward to the next 2011/2012 season, an industry official said on Thursday.
"Warehouses are now running out of beans while in previous years Vietnam often had around 100,000 tonnes to bring forward," Chairman Luong Van Tu of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said.
India seen exporting 2.8 mln T sugar in 2011/12
NEW DELHI, Sept 7 (Reuters) - India is likely to allow unrestricted exports of 2.8 million tonnes of sugar in 2011/12 season, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, up from 1.5 million tonnes so far this year and the second straight year of exports from the world's top consumer.
Export estimates ranged from a low of 2.0 million tonnes to a high of 4.0 million tonnes in forecasts by 10 leading sugar firms, traders and analysts at a global sugar conference in New Delhi this week.
ISO sees China sugar imports up in 2011/12
LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The International Sugar Organization on Wednesday forecast China's sugar import demand to grow to 2.75 million tonnes in 2011/12, allowing a 500,000-tonne stock rebuilding, which will make the country the fourth largest sugar importer.
"China's purchases from the world market are expected to rise considerably in the second half of 2011," the ISO said in its latest monthly report.
Oil Erases Loss in New York After Obama Job Plan; Nate to Become Hurricane (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil headed for a third weekly gain as investors bet President Barack Obama’s job-creation plan will support demand for fuel and as Tropical Storm Nate was forecast to become a hurricane, threatening supplies in the world’s biggest crude-consumer. Futures climbed as much as 0.4 percent, erasing a decline of 0.8 percent, after Obama called on Congress to pass a proposal that would inject $447 billion into the economy. Prices slid yesterday after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the nation’s recovery is fragile. Energy companies began evacuating platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude for October delivery gained as much as 38 cents to $89.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $89.38 at 11:53 a.m. Sydney time. Prices are 3.4 percent higher this week and 20 percent the past year.
Brent eases as awaits economic news, oil data
LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Brent oil eased on Thursday, falling from its highest in a month, ahead of news from the heads of the European and U.S. central banks, a jobs package from the U.S. president and weekly oil inventory data.
"Oil prices are in the hands of macro financial developments interrupted by occasional local developments," said David Hufton, managing director of PVM Oil Associates in London.
Mexico's largest oil refinery reopens after outage
MEXICO CITY, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Mexico's largest oil refinery reopened on Wednesday a day after it was closed for a power outage and operations should be back to normal on Thursday afternoon, state oil monopoly Pemex said.
The outage occurred at the 330,000 barrel-per-day capacity Salinas Cruz refinery in the southern state of Oaxaca, forcing Pemex to shut down 26 processing plants for safety reasons.
Oil price volatility a concern for Asia
SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Oil traders have been the only beneficiaries from this year's sharp swings in energy prices, but even they have been caught off guard at times, falling prey to geopolitics and wider financial market risk appetite swings.
That sums up reflections at Singapore's Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) this week, where oil traders, company executives and business leaders gathered to discuss an increasingly turbulent and volatile trading environment.
New IEA head rules out oil reserves use to lower price
PARIS, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release emergency oil reserves only in case of a supply disruption and not to help the economy or lower prices, its new executive director said on Thursday.
Maria van der Hoeven, a former Dutch economy minister who started at the IEA on Sept. 1, also said the agency's release of oil from its emergency reserves in June was a success and there was no plan for a further move.
Gold Poised for Weekly Decline as Obama Employment Plan May Boost Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold fell, set for a weekly decline, amid optimism a plan by U.S. President Barack Obama will create jobs and spur growth in the world’s largest economy, sending equities higher and trimming demand for safer assets. Bullion for immediate delivery shed as much as 0.9 percent to $1,853.93 an ounce and was at $1,858.70 at 9:41 a.m. Singapore time. December delivery futures in New York gained 0.2 percent to $1,861.60 an ounce. Obama called on Congress to pass a jobs plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy through spending on infrastructure, subsidies to local governments to stem teacher layoffs, and cutting in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small-business owners. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared a 0.5 percent loss to trade little changed today.
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