Argentine soy area unchanged despite severe dryness
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 wheat harvest is expected to beat initial estimates and reach 14.5 million tonnes, while the outlook for corn and soy area is stable despite dryness, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
The South American country is the world's No. 3 soybean supplier and the top global provider of soyoil and meal. It is also the second-biggest corn exporter and a major source of wheat, especially for neighboring Brazil.
Stocks end 2010 at over 2-year highs; Asia shines
LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - World stocks are set to end the year at their highest levels in 28 months as investors gear up for continued risk-taking into 2011, prompted by a wilting dollar and narrowing yields on safe-haven U.S. bonds.
"In many ways 2010 is ending on a similar note to 2009, with markets rallying on hopes of economic recovery. This is certainly in line with our view of the world economy," said Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders.
Argentine wheat output seen higher at 14.5 mln T
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 wheat harvest is expected to total 14.5 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate for output of 13.5 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
The exchange also held its forecasts for 2010/11 corn and soy plantings despite dry weather that has driven global prices higher in recent weeks.
Brazil's South Faces Little Rain, Threatening Soy-Somar (Source: CME)
Southern and northeastern Brazilian states face little rain in the coming days while ample rains are forecast to fall in other states, according to private weather service Somar. A maximum of 10 millimeters of rain is forecast for Parana, Brazil's second-largest soy producer state, by Jan. 3, said Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Somar in Sao Paulo. In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's third-biggest producer of the oilseed, five millimeters of rain are forecast by Jan. 3, according to Oliveira. The farmers "still are not talking about losses though the sparse rain brings worries" in the two Brazilian states, Oliveira said. Dry weather caused by the La Nina weather pattern already is damaging fields in Argentina, which will be the world's second-largest corn exporter this crop year and third-largest soybean exporter, according to U.S. data. The forecast, though, is for ample rains in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producer of soy, and Goias, another significant producer of the oilseed, Oliveira said.
Brazil is the world's largest soy producer after the U.S. Brazil recently finished planting its 2010-11 crop, which will be harvested between January and May of the coming year. Rains may reach between 200 millimeters and 300 millimeters in some regions in Mato Grosso and Goias between now and Jan. 3, according to Oliveira. This compares with average rain of 400 millimeters for the entire month of December, he said. No rains, though, are forecast for Mato Grosso do Sul. There are worries about the dry weather in the soy producer state, though losses aren't yet recorded, Oliveira said. Though there are no losses yet, there could be soy crop losses in the northeastern Brazilian states of Maranhao and Piaui, according to Oliveira. The soil is already dry in the two states, he said. Oliveira, discussing weather throughout Brazil, said lack of rain in the states of Maranhao and Piaui is "the largest worry."
Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop is forecast to reach 68.6 million metric tons, the country's Ministry of Agriculture Conab unit announced earlier this month. Celeres, a Brazilian agricultural consultancy, forecast early this month that the 2010-11 Brazilian soy crop would reach 68.1 million tons.
China Aims To Boost Agricultural Self-Sufficiency Next 5 Years -Ministry (Source: CME)
China hopes to raise its self-sufficiency level for some important agricultural commodities, including vegetable oils, cotton and sugar over the next five years, in an effort that could limit import growth in the face of rapidly rising consumption. Realizing its targets won't be easy, as China's grain output growth is at the mercy of weather, while the expansion of farmland is limited by rapid urbanization and yields are constrained by a lack of irrigation infrastructure. Only 50% of China's farmland is effectively irrigated and about 70% of the nation's farmland is low- to medium-yielding. China will try to raise its self-sufficiency rate for vegetable oils beyond the 40% level--the government's threshold for national food security, between 2011 and 2015--while boosting output of oilseeds to 35 million metric tons, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The self-sufficiency rate is currently around 34%, according to state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
China's oilseed output this year is expected to exceed 31.5 million tons, steady on year, Vice Minister Wei Chaoan said, according to a transcript on the ministry's website of his comments at a national planting conference. The government is targeting annual cotton output of more than 7 million tons during China's 12th Five-Year Program period, compared with about 6.2 million tons this year, which was down 180,000 tons from 2009, Wei said. The government will increase vegetable output to about 650 million tons during the period, up from this year's 637 million tons and it will aim to expand planted vegetable area on the outskirts of China's medium- and large-sized cities to reduce transportation costs, Wei said. Self-sufficiency in sugar will be raised to more than 90% from about 80% by 2015, with output of sugar crops to reach about 140 million tons, he said, adding that the country is completely self-sufficient in rice, wheat and corn.
To realize its self-sufficiency targets, planted area must be guaranteed at more than 1.6 billion mu, or 110 million hectares between 2011 and 2015, he added. The area planted to corn, soybeans and rice will be increased, while wheat yields must be enhanced, he said. "Increasing grain output by merely expanding farmland area would come to a dead end," Wei said. China lost about 50 million tons of grain due to natural disasters and 25 million tons due to insect damage in 2010, about 14% of the nation's total grain output of 546.4 million tons, Wei said. China will allocate a larger share of its fixed-asset investment budget to rural infrastructure such as irrigation, the central government said Dec. 23, following the conclusion of its annual Central Rural Work Conference.
US Grain Exports-Wheat sales at 3-month low, soy down 20 pct
CHICAGO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat export sales fell 27 percent to the lowest level in more than three months last week as demand waned after big rains in Australia prompted a rash of buying early this month, U.S. Agriculture Department data showed on Thursday.
Export sales of U.S. corn fell 17 percent to a one-month low, while soybean export were down 20 percent, USDA said.
U.S. wheat jumps to 5-month top on Australia floods
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures started the New Year with a gain of 1.6 percent to a new five-month top as floods in Australia hampered grain shipments, threatening to further tighten global supplies.
"There is supporting news from Australia as it seems that Australia is not going to recover from floods soon," said Ker Chung Yang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Oil extends rally above $91, eyes US econ data
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Oil extended its rally above $91 a barrel on optimism that the global economic rebound is gathering momentum, driving demand growth and sending prices into triple-digit territory later this year.
"Snowstorms aside, more econ data will set the tone and direction this week for oil," said Geoff Howie, markets strategist at MF Global in Singapore.
OIL: Oil eases; holds above $91 on hopes of econ recovery
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Crude oil eased on Monday, but held above the $91 a barrel mark on optimism the gathering momentum in the global economic recovery would drive demand growth and send prices into triple-digit territory later this year.
Warmer weather forecasts after the blizzard that pummeled the U.S. Northeast have cast doubts on sustained domestic demand for heating fuel, and could cap gains in oil prices.
COMMODITY MARKETS: Second year of top gains set high hopes for 2011
NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Commodities head into 2011 with a second year of asset-beating gains that elevated oil and grains to their highest prices since the financial crisis and copper to a record.
"I think the fundamentals in commodities will overweigh any type of currency play in 2011. Supply situations from copper to coffee are really tight," said Sean McGillivray, vice-president at Oregon-based Great Pacific Wealth Management, which does asset allocation for over 30 commodity-based funds.
GLOBAL MARETS: Stocks, commodities shine in 2010; euro suffers
NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - World stocks ended 2010 at their highest levels in 28 months on Friday and oil touched a 26-month peak as expectations of a further recovery in the global economy supported investors' appetite for risk heading into the new year.
"In many ways 2010 is ending on a similar note to 2009, with markets rallying on hopes of economic recovery. This is certainly in line with our view of the world economy," said Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders.
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