Tuesday, November 30, 2010

20101130 0931 Global Economics News.

E.U: Growth to weaken as crisis 'shadow' remains next year . Budget cuts to stem a mounting debt crisis will hurt consumer demand and faltering global expansion curbs exports, the European Commission said. Gross-domestic-product growth in the 16-nation euro region may weaken to 1.5% YoY in 2011 from 1.7% YoY this year. While Germany may expand 3.7% YoY this year, the economies of Ireland, Greece and Spain will continue to shrink. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: House prices fell for a fifth month in November as demand for property dropped the most in almost two years, Hometrack Ltd. said. The average cost of a home fell 0.8% MoM from October to GBP155,000 (USD242,900). Demand for homes, measured by the change in new buyers registering with real-estate agents, fell 4.3% MoM, the biggest decline since January 2009. (Source: Bloomberg)

Spain: Inflation slowed in November after the economic recovery stalled in the third quarter. Consumer prices rose 2.2% YoY, based on a European Union measure, after advancing 2.3% YoY in October, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said in a statement. (Source: Bloomberg)

Ireland: To pay an average 5.8% for international bailout loans as part of an agreement that protected the senior bondholders of Irish banks and preserved the country's low corporate tax policy. The state was granted funds amounting to EUR 67.5b (USD 90b) with an average duration of 7 1/2 years by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, the government said. The average interest compares with a rate of around 5% charged to Greece for three-year loans earlier this year. (Source: Bloomberg)

Greece: Wins EU pledge for 4 1/2-year extension to repay bailout to match the seven-year term for the rescue Ireland received. Greece in May got a three-year aid package of EUR 110b (USD 146b) from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund to prevent a debt default. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Retail sales declined for the first time this year after a stimulus program ended and the tobacco tax was increased. Sales decreased 0.2% YoY in October the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo. From a month earlier, they tumbled 1.9% MoM. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Industrial output rises less than estimated in October . Output advanced 13.5% YoY compared to a median forecast for a 15.1% YoY gain. Production fell 4.2% MoM on a monthly basis, the third straight decline. (Source: Bloomberg) 

Thailand: May refrain from rate increase as growth risks climb
The Bank of Thailand may refrain from raising its policy interest rate, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting as risks to the nation’s economic recovery increase. The central bank will leave its benchmark one-day bond repurchase rate at 1.75%, according to 12 out of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The rest expect a quarter-percentage-point increase. (Bloomberg)

UK: Trims growth forecasts, sees no change in deficit
The British economy faces a “sluggish” outlook with the recovery likely to be slower than after previous recessions, the Treasury’s fiscal watchdog said. The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its 2011 growth forecast today to 2.1% from 2.3% and said the economy will expand 2.6% in 2012 instead of 2.8%. Growth will be faster than expected this year, it said. (Bloomberg)

Australia: GDP probably hit ‘soft patch’ as rates, currency rose
Australia’s economic growth slowed last quarter as higher borrowing costs and less government stimulus weakened the housing market, while a stronger currency hurt exports, economists predicted. Gross domestic product advanced 0.5% from the previous three months, when it grew 1.2%, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.(Bloomberg)

EU: Irish rescue fails to stem turmoil; Spain bonds drop
European governments’ EUR85bn (USD113bn) bailout package for Ireland failed to quell the market turmoil menacing the euro as stocks, bonds and the currency declined. Irish 10-year bonds slid after an early advance, Spanish bonds fell by the most since the euro’s launch and European shares sank 1.4%. The euro weakened against 15 of its 16 major counterparts and the cost of insuring the debt of Spain and Portugal against default soared to records.(Bloomberg)

EU: European economic confidence rises to three-year high
European confidence in the economic outlook improved to the highest in three years in November as Germany’s export-driven growth helped counter concerns that a spreading sovereign-debt crisis will hurt the recovery. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 105.3 from 103.8 in October, the European Commission in Brussels said in a statement. That’s the highest since November 2007. Economists forecast a gain to 105, the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. (Bloomberg)

US: Monthly job growth to double, RDQ’s Ryding says
Payrolls in the US are poised to grow by about 200,000 a month, double the pace so far this year, said John Ryding of RDQ Economics in New York. Employment increased by 145,000 workers this month after a 151,000 gain in October that marked the biggest advance since May, according to the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department data.(Bloomberg)

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