GENEVA, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Russia's ban on wheat exports, imposed after drought ravaged crops, could very well be extended until the end of 2011 if mounting worries about the next crop are confirmed, exporters, traders and analysts said.
Moscow said in August it would suspend all grain exports until the end of the year and officials have hinted the ban was likely to be extended until the end of the 2010/11 season on July 1-- step participants at a 3-day Global Grain conference in Geneva this week said was inevitable.
Gold holds gains as Ireland worry eases
SINGAPORE, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied, holding onto gains from the previous session, as a cure is seen imminent for Ireland's debt crisis, which helped boost the euro.
"I think a rate hike, if materialized over the weekend, is likely to exert a bit of volatility for commodities, including precious metals," said Yingxi Yu, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
Oil extends gains to $82 as Irish worries ease
TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Oil extended gains to near $82 a barrel on Friday, continuing to get support from an improved outlook for Ireland's debt crisis, which weakened the dollar and boosted appetite for stocks and other commodities.
"Precious metals such as silver and palladium are climbing and so are stocks, boosting market sentiment," said Shuji Sugata, manager at Mitsubishi Corporation Futures.
U.S. corn, soy drop on talk of China rate hike, wheat dips
SINGAPORE, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures slid nearly 1 percent, while soybeans lost 0.7 percent as fears of possible steps by China, the world's biggest soy importer, to curb food inflation weighed on the grain markets.
"Soybeans and corn are being driven by talk of rate hike in China," said Garry Booth, a trader with MF Global Australia.
More China corn imports decided by market-official
BEIJING, Nov 19 (Reuters) - China's grain deputy chief said commercial companies and market prices would decide if more corn would be imported into the country while the government holds ample reserves and can ensure supplies.
"Corn imports currently are conducted by enterprises, not at the needs of the government in ensuring domestic supplies," Zeng Liying, deputy director of the State Grain Administration, told state media.
OIL: Crude rises above $82/bbl on Ireland hopes
TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures extended gains to above $82 a barrel on Friday as hopes for economic recovery increased after worries about Ireland's debt crisis began to diminish, pushing the dollar lower and boosting appetite for stocks and other commodities.
Energy futures drew additional support from economic data showing manufacturing activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region touched a one-year high this month and that new U.S. claims for jobless benefits barely rose last week.
COMMODITY MARKETS: Relief over Ireland sparks commodities rally
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Oil broke a four-day fall and gold snapped its longest losing streak in almost six months as a multibillion-dollar bailout plan for Ireland restored calm in commodity and financial markets on Thursday.
"We're seeing a little bit of confidence starting to creep back into these markets," said Daniel Smith, an analyst at London's Standard Chartered.
GLOBAL MARKETS: GM's IPO, US data drive stock and commodity gains
NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - A blockbuster General Motors Co
"This is bigger than just an IPO. It's an American icon coming back onstream and it is feeding optimism to the stock market," said Bernie McGinn, president of McGinn Investment Management in Alexandria, Virginia.
Hong Kong On Alert After Bird Flu Case; Downplays Threat(Source: CME)
Hong Kong health authorities are on alert following the discovery of the city's first human case of bird flu in seven years, even as they downplayed the threat of a major new outbreak. Officials, meanwhile, are still struggling to determine if the 59-year-old woman who tested positive for Influenza A (H5), a variant of the avian flu, contracted the disease within the city. York Chow, the secretary for food and health, said the risk of avian flu in Hong Kong is "not significantly higher than before." Nonetheless, he said all public hospitals are operating at the serious response level under the government's preparedness plan for an influenza pandemic, requiring visitors to wear surgical masks, limiting the number of visitors and shortening visiting hours. The Center for Health Protection is also testing all severe pneumonia cases for the bird flu. The city's last case of avian flu in humans was in 2003.
In 1997, Hong Kong was home to the world's first major outbreak in humans, when six people died from the virus' mutation. The government will also increase testing of chickens that cross the border with mainland China. In addition, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department will inspect 30 Hong Kong farms and obtain samples for further testing. The victim, currently in serious condition at Princess Margaret Hospital, traveled in mainland China for 10 days before returning to Hong Kong Nov. 1. She developed her first symptom, a runny nose, the next day. Mr. Chow said it is "most likely" she contracted the flu in the mainland, where she didn't have contact with live poultry and didn't visit farms, but officials haven't confirmed how the flu originated since the incubation period can range from one day to two weeks.
Inflating the Risks To China's Economy (Source: CME)
The fight against inflation in China is getting ever more serious. Beijing's top body, the State Council, is now mulling price controls for some consumer staple goods. It's also cracking down on speculators, who've been driving up vegetable prices, while giving extra welfare payouts to poorer families. Such announcements help the government give the impression it is doing all it can to fight inflation, particularly in the cost of food. The consumer price index's spike to 4.4% on-year in October was mostly due to a 10.1% on-year rise in food prices. Politically it's an important move, showing Beijing's keen to prevent social unrest that might result from a sharp uptick in the basic cost of living. Still, the greater war it has to fight is to bring down the excess money swilling around China's economy. That's a result of the main of the credit Chinese banks pumped into the economy over the last two years, now exacerbated by potential hot money inflows on the back of loose U.S. monetary policy.
There's certainly reason to be skeptical price controls will work. Mark Williams, Capital Economics' China economist, says that when such measures were implemented in January 2008, wholesale food prices still rose 17% over the following two months because controls weren't always comprehensively implemented. Price caps can become counterproductive for consumers, if, for example, producers respond by limiting their output or increasing exports, leading to domestic shortages of key goods. Even if price controls do have a temporarily beneficial effect, Chinese policy makers will continue to face problems if they don't tackle the causes of inflation rather than its symptoms. Back in 2008, high food inflation was mostly a result of supply bottlenecks.
Federal Reserve officials see need for full QE2
WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is likely to follow through on its entire $600 billion bond buying program based on an anticipated weak economic recovery.
"As the forecast looks right now it looks like we'll be purchasing at this pace through the end of the second quarter to add up to $600 billion," St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.
PRECIOUS-Gold rebounds as euro recovery benefits commodities
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Gold rose more than 1 percent on Thursday, recovering after four sessions of losses, as hopes for a rescue package for Ireland boosted the euro, helping commodity prices recoup some of this week's hefty losses.
Spot gold was bid at $1,356.20 an ounce at 1241 GMT, against $1,335.70 late in New York on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose $19.20 to $1,356.10.
FOREX-Euro rises as Ireland optimism fuels speculative rally
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The euro rallied on Thursday as optimism that Ireland's debt crisis may be easing fuelled speculative buying, but the move was seen as undermined by peripheral risks elsewhere and position-squaring into the year-end.
The dollar was broadly softer after subdued U.S. inflation data on Wednesday reinforced the U.S. Federal Reserve's case for monetary easing.
US wheat, corn rise; weak dollar prompts bargain hunting
SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat gained 1 percent , rising for a second straight session, while corn future added 0.6 percent as the grain markets recovered from over three-month lows, with a weaker dollar prompting bargain-hunting.
"Grains are slightly firmer today which is not surprising as there has been a large selloff in the last few of days," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at FCStone Australia. "There is possibly some profit-taking. After commodities selloff its probably some bargain-hunting today."
Volatile markets cool US corn, soy export demand
CHICAGO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Highly volatile markets have chilled export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, but demand for wheat has picked up as prices have fallen to multimonth lows, traders and analysts said on Wednesday.
They said demand for corn and soybeans would come roaring back once markets stabilize, fueled by narrowing supplies and rising consumption in China where soaring food costs have driven consumer price inflation to a 25-month high.
Stocks, euro gain as Ireland worries ebb
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Global stocks rebounded , while the euro recovered ground against the dollar on optimism that Ireland may soon see a solution to the debt problems which have recently dogged financial market sentiment.
"It's absolutely vital for the authorities to take proactive steps in order to try to resolve this crisis as soon as possible. The market should see some relief in relation to that," said Henk Potts, equity strategist at Barclays Wealth.
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