ITS Cargo Surveyor Crude Palm Oil export up 8.9% for the period 1~25 Jun 2010
Soyoil futures stumbled near two-week lows, as a bearish up of stocks reported in the Census crush report weighed on prices. Soyoil has become an excess by product of the crush with demand from the biodiesel industry shut down, said Don Roose, president of U.S. commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. Technical weakness helped anchor prices as well, but solid export demand limited losses. July soyoil settled 0.42 cent, or 1.1%, lower at 37.17 cents per pound.(Source: CME)
Supply, Favorable Conditions To Depress Soybean Prices(Source: CME)
Strong soybean harvests expected over the next two years may depress prices of the commodity as stocks rise, boosting supplies of soybeans and soyoil, a Rabobank International analyst said Thursday.
Strong demand from China is likely to push corn prices higher, however, and to limit any losses for soybeans and other oilseeds.
Global soybean stocks may reach 60 million metric tons in the 2009-10 crop year to September, and are likely to hit 74 million tons during 2010-11, said John Baker, Rabobank's regional head in Asia for Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory.
Soybean prices may decline slightly to $9 a bushel in September, he said. In electronic trading, Chicago Board of Trade prices for soybeans to be delivered in July were up 5 1/2 cents at $9.635/bushel around 0930 GMT.
The expected decline in soybean prices will likely be limited, however.
Rising demand from China for soybeans and other oilseeds are expected to support global prices, as China's imports of soybeans alone may reach 50 million tons during 2010-11. The China National Grain & Oils information Centre forecasts 2009-10 imports at 47.5 million tons.
Palm oil prices, which track soyoil prices because they are rival products in many export markets, may "fall off slightly in the next few months, but I expect crude palm oil to (continue to) trade above $700/ton," Baker said.
The U.S. corn crop, the world's largest, may reach 13.5 billion bushels in 2010-11, up from 13.2 billion bushels in 2008-09, and Argentina's current corn harvest may yield 21 million tons, he said.
"Production in Brazil may reach 54.1 million tons in 2009-10, up 6.2% from the previous marketing year," he said.
Despite the large harvests, corn prices will be supported by demand from China as dry weather conditions hurt its domestic corn production.
Corn prices may "gradually trend upwards and reach $4.10/bushel in March 2011," Baker said.
Palm oil up on strong demand hopes
KUALA LUMPUR, June 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures made little headway as players took positions ahead of export data expected to be strong, although lacklustre crude markets curbed gains. "The market is consolidating but there is short covering ahead of the export numbers," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.
China's eating to sharply outpace food output-OECD
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - China's rate of food consumption growth is expected to be double its domestic agricultural production growth by 2019, prompting steady inports growth, a senior OECD official told Reuters on Thursday. "For China one of the major challenges is food security," said Wayne Jones, head of the agro-food trade and markets division at the the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
China soy purchases slow after record June imports -CNGOIC
BEIJING, June 24 (Reuters) - Chinese soy importers have slowed bookings of new cargoes after record-high imports in June and hefty purchases already made for July, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) said on Thursday. China's June soy imports were set to hit a record of 6 million tonnes, with many ports reporting bulging inventories, the centre said.
Rains cast doubt on Canada crop stats
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, June 23 (Reuters) - The Canadian government on Wednesday estimated that farmers planted or intended to plant a record canola area and less wheat and barley this year, but Statistics Canada admitted the report may not reflect the full impact of record spring rains. Traders and analysts view the report as inaccurate, since Statscan surveyed farmers between May 25 and June 3, prior to disastrous June rains that left Western Canada's biggest unplanted acreage in 39 years.
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