Wednesday, September 12, 2012

20120912 1306 Crude Oil Daily Chart Study.



OIL-Oil rises awaiting Fed meeting, German court
NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday in choppy trading as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to bolster the economy and that a German court will approve a euro zone rescue plan put pressure on the dollar and boosted crude futures.
"Moody's downgrade pressured the dollar and added support for crude, but markets are waiting for the German court and Fed decisions," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

POLL-US crude stocks seen falling for 2nd week after Isaac
Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week for the second straight week, pressured by lower production and imports on the U.S. Gulf Coast after Hurricane Isaac, an expanded Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Crude inventories are forecast to have fallen by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Sept. 7, according to the survey of 14 analysts. 12 analysts projected a draw in inventories.

US sees tighter oil market; OPEC disagrees
NEW YORK/LONDON Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. government and OPEC offered differing outlooks for global oil markets on Tuesday, with Washington ratcheting up price forecasts for oil on stronger demand while OPEC highlighted rising output from the exporter group.
In separate monthly reports, both emphasized the possibility that a worsening European crisis could still drag down oil prices, warnings that may complicate deliberations over whether to tap into strategic oil reserves again.

NATURAL GAS-Technical buying drives US natgas futures up 6 pct
NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday for a second straight day, driven by technical buying and expectations for another light weekly inventory build despite moderating U.S. weather this week that should slow air-conditioning demand.
"I think there's been a lot of technical buying this week," a Pennsylvania-based trader said, noting recent shorts, now out of the money, were likely getting "squeezed" by the move up.

EURO COAL-Prices fall $1/T as more cargoes offered
LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Physical coal prices fell by $1.00 a tonne on Tuesday as more prompt cargoes were offered amid slack demand.
"You could expect a rise of a few dollars over the next few months and into 2013 but $110, $105 or anything over $100 isn't looking very likely," one Pacific-based producer said.

Global Oil Prices Seen Slipping in 2013, Says Energy Department By U.S. Energy Information Administration - Tue Sep 11 17:00:00 CDT 2012 CT 
Tepid Outlook for U.S., Europe Demand
Benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices in 2013 are expected to be higher than previously forecast, though still down from 2012 levels amid increasing production and weaker consumption in industrialized countries, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
WTI spot prices will average an estimated $92.63 a barrel next year, down 3.2% from a projected $95.66 this year but up from $90.25 in the EIA’s previous 2013 forecast. Brent is forecast to average $103.38 in 2013, down 7.5% from $111.81 in 2012. Last month, the EIA estimated Brent would average $100 in 2013.
EIA figures suggest sluggish economies in the U.S. and Europe will dampen energy demand into next year. Projected crude and liquid fuels consumption in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries is expected to decline 0.4% in 2013, to 45.21 million barrels a day, though total global consumption is seen rising 1.1%, led by China.
WTI’s discount to Brent is expected to shrink to an average of about $9 a barrel by the end of 2013 from $17 during the fourth quarter this year.
In natural gas, growth in U.S. consumption is expected to weaken as projected higher prices relative to coal slows the trend toward substituting gas for coal to fire electric power plants. Coal-fired electricity generation is projected to rise 9% next year while gas generation falls 10%

Recap Energy Market Report(CME)
October crude oil prices rallied for the third session in a row and settled above the $97.00 level. Early support for the crude oil market came from continued weakness in the US dollar, which fell to a new four month low, and improvement in risk-taking sentiment. While the market turned choppy during the later morning hours, the latest monthly report from the EIA raised their 2012 and 2013 global oil demand forecasts. Still some traders were looking for a current read on the US supply situation in the wake of Hurricane Isaac. Expectations for this weeks EIA report are for draw of around 2.5 barrels, which would be the seventh consecutive weekly decline. 

Thomson Reuters: Crude Update By Thomson Reuters - Tue 11 Sep 2012 07:51:04 CT
Brent crude futures fell for the first time in four sessions as investors took profits, though they remained above $114 a barrel with declines limited by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would unveil further steps to stimulate the economy this week.    

Chart Reading :
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound market within an uptrend market.
MACD Histogram : recovering, buyer still in.
Support : 97, 94, 92 level.
Resistance : 100, 103, 106 level.
Idea : Long at support or break up above resistance, must set stop loss few points below support. Short at resistance, must set stop loss few points above support.

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