US 4Q real GDP revision was +0.2% pt to +5.9%, reflecting more inventories and business software investment. Key real final sales weakened a bit to +1.9% but are still in an uptrend from a weak 1H09. Even more of the growth than in the initial estimate was from inventories. Inventories added 3.88 pts to the latest 4Q growth estimate. (Xinhua)
US sales of existing single-family homes, town homes, condominiums and cooperatives dropped 7.2% in January, the second month of unexpectedly large decline, but a new tax credit bounce later is still expected, the National Association of Realtors reported. The January result was the second largest sales drop on record after January turned out to be the largest but was still 11.5% above a year earlier. The national median price slipped 3.4% from December to $164,700 but was unchanged from a year ago. (Xinhua)
The US Treasury said China holds US$139.4bn more US Treasuries than previously counted, to reach a new total of US$894.8bn, again the largest such holder. Japan holds an estimated US$765.7bn. The UK's holdings were made US$124.4bn smaller, at US$178bn. Caribbean US Treasury holdings were US$56.5bn less, at US$128.2bn. (Xinhua)
Business activity in the US expanded in February at the fastest pace since 2005, a private report showed. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer climbed to 62.6 from 61.5 last month. Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 59.7. (Bloomberg)
Confidence among US consumers declined as job prospects dimmed. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for February fell to 73.6 from 74.4 in January. The final February figure compares with the preliminary reading of 73.7 released on Feb. 12. The index of expectations six months from now, which projects the direction of consumer spending, dropped to 68.4 from 70.1 in January. The preliminary February reading was 66.9. (Bloomberg)
Europe’s economic recovery may fail to gather strength for most of 2010 as governments phase out stimulus measures and domestic demand remains “subdued,” the European Commission said. Gross domestic product in the 16-member euro region may rise 0.2% in the first, second and third quarters before increasing 0.3% in the last quarter, the Brusselsbased commission said. European domestic demand remains weak and it’s not yet clear to what extent the euro region will benefit from a global recovery, the commission said. (Bloomberg)
European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly worsened in February after the euro region’s recovery almost stalled in 4Q09. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations using the euro slipped to 95.9 from a revised 96.0 in January. Economists projected it would expand to 96.4 in February. (Bloomberg)
European inflation accelerated by 1.0% yoy in January (0.9% in Dec 09), marking the fastest in almost a year led by surging energy costs. That’s in line with an initial estimate published on 29 Jan and median estimate. (Bloomberg)
UK’s gross domestic product rose 0.3% qoq in 4Q09, compared with a previous calculation of 0.1% growth. The median forecast was for a 0.2% increase. (Bloomberg)
Japan’s consumer prices fell for an 11th month in January, putting renewed pressure on policy makers to eradicate deflation that hampers the recovery. Prices excluding fresh food slid 1.8% yoy in January (-2.0% in Dec 09).Economists projected it would decline by 2.0% yoy in January. (Bloomberg)
Japan’s factory output rose 2.5% mom in January (1.9% in Dec 09), the 11th straight gain and the longest streak in more than 12 years. It rose more than the 1.0% median estimate. (Bloomberg)
Japan’s retail sales unexpectedly jumped 2.6% yoy in January (-0.2% in Dec 09). The gain in retail sales was the biggest in almost two years, confounding analysts’ median projection for a 0.2% drop. (Bloomberg)
Hong Kong’s exports jumped 18.4% yoy to HK$222.3bn in January (9.2% in Dec 09), the biggest gain since 2006, after falling the most in half a century in Jan 09. While imports rose 39.5% yoy (18.7% in Dec 09) leaving a trade deficit of HK$29.5bn in January (- HK$33.4bn in Dec 09).
- This number was distorted by the timing of a Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, held in January last year and February in 2010. Economists forecast both exports and imports would rise by 21.2% and 34.5% respectively in January. (Bloomberg)
Singapore’s industrial production rose 39.4% yoy in January (14.6% in Dec 09) as manufacturers ramped up output of electronics and pharmaceuticals to meet rising demand. Economists projected for a 19.3% gain. (Bloomberg)
Singapore’s visitor arrivals registered a 17.6% yoy rise to 908,000 in January. This was the highest recorded visitor arrivals in January, according to the Singapore Tourism Board (STB).The top five visitor-generating markets were Indonesia with 173,000 visitors, China (99,000), Australia (90,000), Malaysia (68,000), and India (57,000), which in total accounted 54% of total tourist arrivals. Hotel room revenue grew 8.5% yoy to reach an estimated S$137m in January. (Bernama)
Thailand’s manufacturing production rose 28.6% yoy for a fifth straight month in January (35.9% in Dec 09) as the global economic recovery helped boost demand for automotive parts and electronics. The median estimate was for a 36% yoy increase.
Thailand’s exports increased 31.4% yoy in January (26.2% in Dec 09), marking the biggest gain in 18 months. Imports rose 50.1% yoy in January (33.0% in Dec 09), resulting in a trade surplus of THB591m (-THB122m in Dec 09). (Bloomberg)
India’s government set a target of becoming the world’s fastest-growing economy within four years, counting on an expanding pool of savings to help finance the nation’s development. India’s
growth rate will accelerate to 8.2% in the financial year beginning 1 Apr, a government report showed. (Bloomberg)
India’s expansion slowed in 4Q09, reflecting a poor monsoon rainfall that hurt farm output.
Gross domestic product grew 6.0% yoy (7.9% in 3Q09). The government forecasts growth to quicken to 7.2% in the year to March. (Bloomberg)
India’s government pledged to shrink its
budget deficit by more than 1.0 -pt of GDP this year from the highest level since 1994. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, presenting the annual budget to parliament, said he plans to narrow the gap to 5.5% of GDP in the year starting 1 Apr from 6.9 % the previous year. He also said economic growth may reach 10.0% in the “not-too-distant future.” (Bloomberg)
Banks have pared their reliance on central banks and governments for liquidity support as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression ebbs, according to a study by the Bank for International Settlements. “The take up of many measures has declined,” economist Petra Gerlach wrote in the study. The report comes as central banks such as the US Federal Reserve trim some of the emergency programs they introduced to combat the crisis. (Bloomberg)
European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will likely push Greece to do more to cut its budget deficit as governments craft a possible
rescue package for Greece. Euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about €25bn (US$34bn) in aid should it need help financing its debt. (Bloomberg)
Thailand's Supreme Court ruled Friday that fugitive former
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had abused his power for personal gain and should be
stripped of THB46bn or US$1.4bn of his frozen US$2.3bn fortune. The decision appeared designed to strike a balance between competing camps by leaving some of his fortune untouched. (LA Times)
