Friday, December 16, 2011

20111216 1655 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  side way range bound.
 Hang Seng chart reading : little downside biased.
KLCI chart reading : side way range bound.

20111216 1635 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

FOREX-Euro slide pauses but debt jitters persist
TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The euro was poised to end its worst week in about three months on an upbeat note, taking heart from light short-covering in most riskier assets on Friday on the back of a well-bid Spanish bond sale and solid U.S. economic data.
But the mood remained brittle with possible cuts in the credit ratings of euro zone countries looming after a key EU summit last week offered little respite to turbulent euro zone bond markets and cash-starved European banks.

Asian shares, euro gain after upbeat U.S. data
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose and the euro edged higher, as signs of strength in the U.S. economy temporarily broke through gloom over the European debt crisis that had driven a sell-off in riskier assets over the past three days.
"The American economy is continuing to improve and they are still the biggest economy in the world ... so if America is doing well that is going to help us all," said Michael Heffernan, senior client adviser and strategist Austock Group.

US wheat suppliers eye more Egypt sales
CAIRO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. grain suppliers are likely to start winning tenders to sell wheat to Egypt in February, when Russian wheat loses its competitive edge and Argentina retreats from the market, an official with a U.S. industry group said on Thursday.
Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, has relied heavily on wheat from the Black Sea since the start of the fiscal year on July 1.

U.S. soy rises for 2nd day on LatAm weather concerns
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans rose around half a percent on Friday, gaining for a second straight day on concerns over dry weather in South America which is likely to boost demand for U.S. beans.
"Dry weather in South America is very supportive factor for soybean and we expect the January contract will rise to around $11.30 to $11.50 next week," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief commodities analyst at Fujitomi Co. in Tokyo.

China 2012 cotton area forecast to decline 8.2 pct -survey
BEIJING, Dec 16 (Reuters) - China's 2012 cotton-growing area is forecast to decline 8.2 pct due to falling cotton prices, according to a survey published on an industry website on Friday.
Planned cotton acreage was estimated at 4.86 million hectares, or 72.94 million mu, said www.cncotton.com, operated by China National Cotton Reserves Corp.

Philippines may export rice by 2014 -farm secy
MANILA, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Philippines could become a rice exporter by 2014, or a year after attaining self-sufficiency in its national staple, and will study possible varieties it could sell to the international market, the agriculture secretary said.
The Southeast Asian country, the world's biggest rice buyer in recent years, has been working to expand rice acreage and build post-harvest facilities to achieve the goal of producing enough rice for domestic consumption by 2013, as well as exports of the grain, Proceso Alcala told reporters late on Thursday.

Canada Wheat Board bill becomes law, Ottawa takes control
OTTAWA/WINNIPEG, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Canadian Parliament gave final approval on Thursday to a government bill to end the Canadian Wheat Board's 68-year-old grain marketing monopoly, allowing the government to take control of the board from farmers who oppose its plans.  
Legal challenges, however, threaten to leave farmers and the grain industry in limbo into the New Year.

Argentine wheat outlook up to 13.6 mln T-exchange
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Argentina should harvest 13.6 million tonnes of wheat in the 2011/12 crop year, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, revising up a previous forecast of 13.0 million tonnes due to the impact of earlier rains on yields.  
Argentina is a leading global supplier of wheat, and Brazil is its biggest market. Farmers are gathering the grain now, and they normally finish harvesting in January.

Kenya expects maize surplus by June 2012
NAIROBI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Kenya expects a surplus of 6.45 million 90kg bags of maize by the end of June 2012 thanks to improved rains, its agriculture ministry said in a brief seen by Reuters on Thursday.
The ministry said its maize stocks as at November 30 stood at 16.58 million bags from 14.4 million the previous month, with the state-run National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) holding 2.29 million bags.

Brent rises above $104 on supply concerns; econ woes weigh
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose above $104 on worries about supply disruption after the U.S. Congress approved a bill imposing sanctions against Iran's central bank, limiting buyers' ability to pay for oil they buy from the Islamic Republic.
"The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are putting a floor, keeping prices supported at current levels despite growing worries about the economy," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress. "China can run but can't hide from what's going on in Europe. The fallout will hurt everybody."

PetroChina adds fuel supply amid shortages -paper
BEIJING, Dec 16 (Reuters) - PetroChina Co Ltd , China's second-largest refiner, was running its refineries at full capacity and will buy more fuel from external sources to cover ongoing domestic shortages, China Petroleum Daily reported on Friday.
Current output of refined oil products was 268,000 tonnes per day, up 2 percent from a year earlier, the newspaper said. The newspaper is run by parent China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

Nickel market in 5,600 T surplus in Jan-Oct'11-INSG
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The global nickel market was in supply surplus by 5,600 tonnes in the first ten months of 2011, the latest monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed.
In January to September the market was in deficit by 6,400 tonnes.  

Copper rebounds on signs of U.S. economic recovery
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Copper rebounded in early Asian trading, erasing declines for the week, after the U.S. economy showed signs of recovery while Europe's debt crisis slowed demand in emerging markets.
The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange  gained 0.92 percent to 53,540 yuan ($8,400) a tonne. Prices tumbled to a three-week low of 52,820 yuan in the previous session. Futures have lost 26 percent this year.

Japan Nov copper cable shipments fall 0.4 pct yr/yr
TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Japanese copper wire and cable shipments fell 0.4 percent in November from a year earlier to an estimated 60,400 tonnes, marking the second-lowest level for that month in the past 35 years, an industry body said on Friday.  
Japan's appetite for copper, often seen as a gauge of economic activity and already weak in the wake of the global financial crisis, took a fresh beating after the March earthquake prompted user industries to reduce domestic production.

Japan Nov copper cable shipments fall 0.4 pct yr/yr
TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Japanese copper wire and cable shipments fell 0.4 percent in November from a year earlier to an estimated 60,400 tonnes, marking the second-lowest level for that month in the past 35 years, an industry body said on Friday.  
Japan's appetite for copper, often seen as a gauge of economic activity and already weak in the wake of the global financial crisis, took a fresh beating after the March earthquake prompted user industries to reduce domestic production.

METALS-Copper rebounds on signs of U.S. economic recovery
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Copper rebounded on Friday, erasing declines for the week, after the U.S. economy showed signs of recovery while Europe's debt crisis slowed demand in emerging markets.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange  climbed 1.5 percent to $7,319 a tonne by 0518 GMT, reducing losses for the week to 6.3 percent. Prices are still headed for the biggest weekly loss since the end of September and the first annual decline in three years.

PRECIOUS-Gold up 1 pct on U.S. data, Spain bond sale
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Spot gold rallied 1 percent on Friday as a smooth Spanish bond auction and upbeat U.S. jobs data supported sentiment, but prices were on track for their biggest weekly drop in nearly three months on a year-end flight to cash.
Solid demand for Spain's bond auction on Thursday and data showing U.S. jobless claims at a 3-1/2-year low gave a reprieve to equities and commodities, which have suffered heavy losses this week.

Gold up 1 pct on U.S. data, Spain bond sale
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Spot gold rallied 1 percent as a smooth Spanish bond auction and upbeat U.S. jobs data supported sentiment, but prices were on track for their biggest weekly drop in nearly three months on a year-end flight to cash.
"People prefer to hold cash in hand at the year end," said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus in Hong Kong.

20111216 1321 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares, euro gain after upbeat U.S. data
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Asian shares edged up and the euro slunk higher on Friday, as signs of strength in the U.S. economy temporarily broke through gloom over the European debt crisis that had driven a sell-off in riskier assets over the past three days.
"Can the U.S. go it totally alone? No," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York. "But the rest of the world, with the exception of Europe, we are pretty positive about. We don't think it's going to fall apart."

COMMODITIES-Mostly lower as euro zone fears outweigh data
NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Major commodities markets ended flat to lower on Thursday as fears of recession in Europe offset some positive U.S. economic data.
"Continuing worries about the euro zone debt crisis are  keeping gains limited today, despite the positive U.S. data on  jobless claims and New York manufacturing activity," said Chris  Dillman, analyst at Tradition Energy.

Oil falls a second day in volatile expiry trade
New York - Oil fell a second straight day on Thursday in light volume trading, giving up early gains as investors remained cautious about prospects for economic growth in Europe and China.
"Brent is going into the expiry so we've got a bit of cover on that but the rest of the (crude) complex is taking it on the chin with all commodities," said Richard  Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of iitrader.com in Chicago.

NYMEX-Natural gas ends slightly lower despite EIA draw
NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended just slightly lower on Thursday, despite a bigger-than-expected weekly drawdown from winter inventories.
"Simply put the winter weather has not yet arrived and is not expected to arrive for a major portion of the U.S. through pretty much the rest of December," said Energy Management Institute's Dominick Chirichella.

Euro Coal-Prices stable, Plomin awards tender
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Physical prompt coal prices held steady on Thursday as the market ignored choppy oil trade but prices are likely to come under more pressure in the next few weeks due to poor demand, traders and utilities said.
"Everybody's clearing the decks before the market basically shuts down for the holidays," one European trader said.

20111216 1037 Global Economic Related News.

Indonesia: Regains investment grade rating as Fitch raises rating
Indonesia regained investment grade rating for its sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings after 14 years, as Southeast Asia’s largest economy withstands faltering global growth and contains borrowings. The country’s long-term foreign and local currency debt was raised to BBB- from BB+, Fitch said in a statement yesterday. The outlook on both ratings is stable. Indonesia lost the investment grade rating in December 1997, during the Asian financial crisis. The rating puts the nation on the same level as India. (Bloomberg)

Singapore: Retail sales rise more than estimated on vehicles
Singapore’s retail sales increased more than economists estimated in October as consumers spent more on vehicles and fuel. The retail sales index rose 8.5% from a year earlier after gaining a revised 0.2% in September, the Statistics Department said in a statement. Jobs growth and visitor arrivals in Singapore are helping boost sales at hotels, restaurants and department stores, with a report today showing the economy added 31,900 jobs last quarter. At the same time, consumer confidence may falter as Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil hurts Asian exports and threatens to push the world into another recession. (Bloomberg)

UK: Retail sales fall more than forecast as outlook darkens
UK retail sales fell more than economists forecast in November as cash-strapped households shunned a second month of price discounts and chose to save rather than spend amid warnings of a looming recession. Sales including fuel fell 0.4% from October, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.. Excluding auto fuel, retail sales fell 0.7% on the month. The figures underline the pressure being felt by consumers as wages fail to keep pace with inflation and concern mounts that the economy is following the crisis-stricken euro region into recession. Unemployment hit a 17-year high of 2.64m in the three months through October and is forecast to rise further next year. (Bloomberg)

US: Jobless claims lowest since ’08 as growth picks up
The fewest workers in three years filed claims for US jobless benefits last week, indicating the world’s largest economy is strengthening heading into 2012. The number of applications for unemployment payments dropped by 19,000 to 366,000 in the week ended 10 Dec, less than the lowest forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the least since May 2008, according to Labor Department figures issued yesterday. Other reports showed manufacturing accelerated this month after pausing in November. (Bloomberg)

US: New York manufacturing index rises more than forecast
Manufacturing in the New York region expanded more than forecast to the highest level in seven months in December, as measures of employment and new orders improved. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to 9.5, from 0.6 in November. Readings higher than zero signal expansion among companies in the so-called Empire State Index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut. Manufacturers may stay at the forefront of the economic expansion as they boost production to replenish depleted stockpiles and meet household and business demand. At the same time, the financial crisis in Europe and a slowdown in China may limit overseas sales. (Bloomberg)

20111216 1037 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Axiata subsidiary Dialog buys Sri Lanka Suntel for up to USD34.9m
Axiata Group’s subsidiary Dialog Axiata PLC is buying Sri Lanka’s leading fixed telecommunications provider Suntel at an enterprise value of between USD33.9m (RM107.84m) and USD34.9m cash pending a due diligence. Axiata said yesterday the acquisition of Suntel by Dialog’s fixed line subsidiary Dialog Broadband Networks (Private) Limited (DBN), provides the Dialog Axiata Group with a much enhanced leverage and footprint in the fixed telecommunications market space in Sri Lanka. (Financial Daily)

UMW: No submission to buy Khazanah’s 42.7% Proton stake
UMW Holdings has confirmed that it had not submitted any bid to Khazanah Nasional to acquire its 42.7% stake in Proton Holdings. “UMW also confirms that it is not in any form of discussion with any parties in this regard,” it said. Besides, UMW’s associate WSP Holdings Ltd has received a takeover offer from HDS Investments LLC for 60 US cents per American Depositary share in cash. (Financial Daily)

Tenaga to rebalance fuel cost mix, focus more on coal, says Che Khalib
TNB is looking to rebalance its fuel cost mix of between coal and gas to 50:50 in 2016 from 40:60 now to reduce its dependency on gas, said its president and CEO Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh. "The coal-fired plant in Tanjung Bin, Johor will be expanded to provide an additional 1,000 MW to meet the higher demand," he told reporters. Che Khalib said TNB hoped to receive payment of up to RM2bn on the additional cost it incurs for burning pricey oil and distillates from the government and Petroliam Nasional as soon as possible. (Financial Daily)

Coastal Contracts orderbook hits RM690m with new RM233m deals
Coastal Contracts’s year-to-date order wins rose to RM690m after the company secured new contracts worth RM233m. It said yesterday that its units have secured contracts for the sale of three offshore support vessels, two landing crafts and two barges for a total of RM233m. (Financial Daily)

Dialog rights shares fixed at RM1.20, warrants exercise price RM2.40
Dialog Group, which is undertaking a cash call to raise funds for more investments in the upstream oil and gas opportunities, has fixed the rights shares at RM1.20 each and the exercise price of the warrants at RM2.40 each. Dialog’s cash call involved a renounceable rights issue of up to 398.73m new shares of 10 sen each together with up to 100.36m free detachable warrants. This would be on the basis of two rights shares with one warrant for every 10 shares held as at 9 Jan 2012. (Financial Daily)

Felda Global on track for April listing
Felda Global Ventures Holdings SB is on track to make its debut on Bursa Malaysia by early second quarter of next year, its president Datuk Sabri Ahmad said. “We are on track. We have the bankers looking into it already. Hopefully, we can list it in April next year,” Sabri told a press conference at Felda Biotech Centre at Bandar Enstek yesterday. While the actual size of the initial public offering (IPO) has yet to be announced, it is expected to be worth billions of ringgit, making Felda Global one of the country’s 25 most valuable companies. (BT)

20111216 1004 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks Snap Three-Day Loss (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks (MXAP) rose, snapping three days of losses, after U.S. data on jobless claims and manufacturing beat estimates, easing concern Europe’s debt crisis will drag the global economy into a recession. Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s biggest exporter of consumer electronics, increased 1 percent in Seoul. Nikon Corp. (7731), the camera maker that about 27 percent of sales from North America, rose 1.1 percent in Tokyo. Insurance Australia Group Ltd. gained 0.8 percent after the Sydney-based insurer agreed to buy New Zealand’s AMI Insurance for NZ$380 million ($288 million). “The U.S. economy is ending the year in a bit better shape than people had anticipated, and that is good, but Europe is obviously not,” said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about $150 billion. “The European economy is heading toward recession next year, and I think it’s going to continue to weigh on markets.”

U.S. Stocks Gain on U.S. Economic Data (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rose, snapping a three- day decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX), as data on jobless claims and manufacturing signaling a strengthening economy overshadowed concern over Europe’s debt crisis. Utilities, health-care and consumer staples had the biggest gains out of 10 S&P 500 groups, advancing at least 0.9 percent. FedEx Corp. (FDX), the operator of the world’s biggest cargo airline, jumped 8 percent after earnings beat analysts’ estimates on increased holiday orders. Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS) surged 16 percent as Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) agreed to acquire the company. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,215.75 at 4 p.m. New York time, paring an earlier rally of 1.1 percent as oil declined and financial companies erased gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 45.33 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,868.81.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro steady, focus on Switzerland and Spain
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The euro steadied just off new 11-month lows, with eyes fixed on a Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting to consider its campaign of currency intervention while a Spanish bond auction will offer more signs on the depth of Europe's debt crisis.
"Overall, the outlook for the euro remains dark, with the unravelling of the treaty last week, refusal to lend to the IMF and the overall downside risks to global growth," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Global Banking.

Japan Stocks Snap 3-Day Loss (Source: Bloomberg)
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average snapping a three-day losing streak, after U.S. data on jobless claims and manufacturing beat estimates, easing concern Europe’s debt crisis will drag the global economy into a recession. Sony Corp. (6758), Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, rose 1.1 percent. Fanuc Corp. (6954), a leading maker of factory automation systems, added 1.2 percent. Maruzen CHI Holdings Co., a bookstore chain, fell 5.8 percent after forecasting its full- year loss will widen, citing slumping same-store sales. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.6 percent to 8,429.73 as of 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for a 1.2 percent weekly loss. The broader Topix index gained 0.3 percent to 727.44.

Manufacturing Output May Shrink From China to Europe: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Manufacturing may contract this month from China to the euro region as global demand slows and Europe’s leaders struggle to contain the worsening debt crisis. Chinese factory output may decline for a second month in December as Europe’s fiscal woes weigh on exports and home sales slide, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicate. In the euro area, manufacturers may face a fifth straight month of contraction as the region endures its worst quarter for 2 1/2 years, a separate report showed. Ripples from Europe’s debt turmoil have dented confidence among companies and consumers and hit global demand. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last month that trade in goods stalled in most major economies in the third quarter and it cut its growth forecast. The slowdown is spilling over into unemployment, with Nokia Siemens Networks announcing last month that it plans to eliminate 17,000 jobs worldwide.

Global Demand for U.S. Assets Climb $4.8 Billion Even as China Cuts Back (Source: Bloomberg)
Global demand for U.S. financial assets cooled in October amid optimism Europe would resolve its debt crisis, expectations that that have since diminished. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $4.8 billion during the month compared with net purchases of $68.3 billion in September, Treasury Department data showed today in Washington. Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net $48.8 billion compared with net buying of $65 billion the previous month. Demand for U.S. debt fell “as economic data improved and European leaders seemed to be getting a grip on the debt crisis” in October, Jay Bryson, global economist for Wells Fargo Securities, said in a note today. The European rescue fund was boosted to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) in October and investors agreed to a voluntary writedown of 50 percent on Greek debt.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop to Three-Year Low (Source: Bloomberg)
The fewest workers in three years filed claims for U.S. jobless benefits last week, indicating the world’s largest economy is strengthening heading into 2012. The number of applications for unemployment payments dropped by 19,000 to 366,000 in the week ended Dec. 10, less than the lowest forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the least since May 2008, according to Labor Department figures issued today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing accelerated this month after pausing in November. “The U.S. economy, unlike the rest of the world, is gathering momentum as we head toward year-end,” said Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York. “The labor market is improving sharply,” he said, and “we look for gains in industrial production.”

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Improves on Job Gains, Bloomberg Index Shows (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose last week to the highest level in two months, a sign that job gains may be lifting sentiment during the holiday shopping season. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was at minus 49.9 in the period ended Dec. 11, after a reading of minus 50.3 the prior week. Confidence among Americans with full-time jobs climbed to the highest level in almost five months. A decline in unemployment last month complemented by increasing payrolls may help reverse the recent decline in household confidence. At the same time, the European debt crisis and gridlock among lawmakers in Washington could prevent further gains in sentiment.

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rose in November (Source: Bloomberg)
Prices paid to U.S. wholesalers excluding food and fuel rose less than forecast in November, indicating inflation will remain contained. The so-called core measure increased 0.1 percent, less than the 0.2 percent gain projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The producer price index climbed 0.3 percent, paced by a 1 percent advance in food expenses. Slowing growth from Europe to Asia may restrain the cost of raw materials, while subdued job growth and stagnant wages may hold down demand in the U.S., giving companies little room to raise prices. Less inflation would validate Federal Reserve policy makers in their renewed pledge this week to hold rates “exceptionally low” at least through mid-2013.

Singapore’s Exports Unexpectedly Rose in November on Pharmaceutical Boost (Source: Bloomberg)
Singapore’s exports unexpectedly rose in November as pharmaceutical sales countered weak demand for electronics amid a faltering global recovery. Non-oil domestic exports climbed 1.6 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 16.3 percent slide in October, the island’s trade promotion agency said in a statement today. The median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.2 percent decline. Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis has curbed demand for Asian goods, prompting nations from Indonesia to China to shield expansion by easing monetary policy in recent weeks. Singapore’s government has forecast the city state’s gross domestic product may grow as little as 1 percent in 2012.

Indonesia Regains Investment Grade Rating (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia regained investment grade rating for its sovereign debt at Fitch Ratings after 14 years, as Southeast Asia’s largest economy withstands faltering global growth and contains borrowings. The country’s long-term foreign and local currency debt was raised to BBB- from BB+, Fitch said in a statement yesterday. The outlook on both ratings is stable. Indonesia lost the investment grade rating in December 1997, during the Asian financial crisis. The rating puts the nation on the same level as India. “The upgrades reflect the country’s strong and resilient economic growth, low and declining public-debt ratios, strengthened external liquidity and a prudent overall macro policy framework,” Philip McNicholas, director in Fitch’s Asia- Pacific Sovereign Ratings group, said in the statement.

Draghi Says Short-Term Contraction in Euro Area Unavoidable Amid Austerity (Source: Bloomberg)
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro area may not be able to escape a recession due to governments’ austerity measures. “The unavoidable short-term contraction may be mitigated by the return of confidence,” Draghi said during a speech in Berlin today. “But in the medium term, sustainable growth can be achieved only by undertaking deep structural reforms that have been procrastinated for too long.”

20111216 1003 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end lower, falling to a fresh nine-month low in a move traders say could spur more liquidation. The March contract closed below key support at $5.80, and traders say that technically there's little underlying support. "The psychology is not good at this point," says Jerry Gidel, analyst with North America Risk Management Services. Weak exports have weighed on prices recently. Gains in soybeans and a weaker dollar limit corn's losses. CBOT March corn ends down 1 3/4c to $5.79.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures end slightly lower as weak exports and pressure from corn offset a weaker dollar and gains in soybeans. A weaker dollar helped prompt some short-covering in a market that has fallen sharply throughout the fall, but weekly exports were lackluster, reaffirming that ample world supplies are limiting demand for U.S. wheat. Analysts expect that trend to continue. March CBOT wheat ends down 1 1/2c to $5.79 1/4 a bushel, some deferred contracts higher. KCBT March wheat up 3/4c to $6.36 1/4, MGEX March wheat flat at $8.15 3/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures eke out small gains, ending higher on a weaker dollar. The small gains came after the market set another fresh 5 1/2-month low. The January contract is down 27% since Sept. 12, as poor export demand and a lack of supply problems around the world weigh. A retreat in the dollar after sharp Wednesday gains boosted some commodities. CBOT Jan. rice ends up 1 1/2c to $13.66 1/2 per hundredweight.

Corn struggles on European debt woes; soy firms
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn was little changed after sliding to a nine-month low in the last session, while the benchmark wheat languished at contract lows as concerns over Europe's worsening debt crisis continued to plague the global markets.
"Grains and oilseeds are not in a Christmas mood, it's all because of the macro economic situation," said Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "Buyers are seeing some bargain hunting in soybeans near the psychological support level of $11 a bushel."

French analyst sees EU 2012 soft wheat crop up 3 pct
PARIS, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The European Union's soft wheat crop should reach 133.5 million tonnes next year, up 3 percent on 2011, French analyst Strategie Grains said in its first official forecasts for 2012 EU crops released on Thursday.
The analyst had told Reuters last month that it estimated the EU soft wheat crop at 135.8 million tonnes in 2012, up 5 percent on year.

China may hold corn imports until H2 2012 amid record harvest
BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A record domestic harvest and easing food inflation show little sign that China, the world's second-largest corn consumer, will resume imports from global markets until maybe the second half of next year, analysts said.
Sinograin, which manages state reserves, has shifted to stockpile domestic crops after it purchased 3-4 million tonnes of U.S. corn this year to help refill state reserves and cool food inflation.

Vietnam may cut 2012 rice exports to 6.5 mln T-report
HANOI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Vietnam may cut its 2012 rice exports to 6.5 million tonnes after shipping a record volume of 7.2 million tonnes this year, and prices could fall on ample supply, a state-run newspaper quoted an Agriculture Ministry official on Thursday as saying.    
Thanks to high value of the rice sales in 2011, farmers have been expanding the area of low-quality varieties, Nguyen Tri Ngoc, head of the ministry's Crops Department was quoted by the Vietnam Economic Times newspaper as saying.

Dry conditions to worsen in Argentina's crop belt
Dec 14 (Reuters) - Dry conditions in parts of east-central Argentina are likely to worsen and expand in the next week, potentially threatening the region's corn and soybean crops, a U.S. agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday.
Parts of Brazil's crop belt have also been dry, although moisture expected in the next week should ease concerns.

Italy 9-mth soft wheat, maize imports up-Anacer
MILAN, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Imports of soft wheat into Italy, a major grain buyer in Europe, jumped 13.4 percent year on year and maize imports surged 38.3 percent in the first nine months of 2011, Italian cereals body Anacer said on Wednesday.
Soft wheat imports rose to 4,027,945 tonnes in the January-September period from 3,552,051 tonnes in the same period of 2010. Maize imports rose to 1,918,962 tonnes from 1,387,358, Anacer said in a statement.

Tightness In Global Grains Markets To Continue - IGC (Source: CME)
General tightness in global grains and oilseeds markets is set to continue, the International Grains Council said, with a further decline forecast for grain exporters' carryovers in 2011-12. However, the IGC said recent steep falls in export prices reflect ample immediate market supplies, especially for wheat after large Black Sea crops and big harvests in the southern hemisphere. The situation for corn remains tighter, the IGC said, especially after the disappointing outcome of the U.S. harvest. This is despite a considerable slowdown in corn usage for biofuels and the ready availability of feed wheat as a substitute. The five-year prospects for wheat appear relatively comfortable, the IGC said, even assuming continued high feed use. However, corn's carryover stocks are likely to decline further, despite the maturing of the ethanol sector in the U.S.
The IGC added that global soybean supplies will remain delicately balanced following a reduced U.S. crop and continued heavy demand in Asia, with much depending on the outcome of upcoming harvests in Argentina and Brazil.

Russia 2011 Grain Output Revised +2M Tons To 92M Tons-SovEcon (Source: CME)
Russian agricultural analysis body SovEcon has revised upwards its projections for the country's grains output this year to 92 million metric tons, 2 million tons more than the previous forecast, SovEcon said. Andrey Sizov Sr., senior economist and chief executive of SovEcon, said it also revised upwards its expectations for 2011 wheat production to 56.5 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons on the previous estimate. Grain production in the Commonwealth of Independent States has exceeded expectations this year, recovering sharply from drought-reduced output last year. Cheaper wheat from the Black Sea region, as a result of ample supplies, is giving European grain a run for its money and is likely to limit any price gains in Western Europe's futures market during the 2011-12 crop year, analysts and traders said.
JPMorgan warned Wednesday that Russia could remain a major exporter of wheat in 2012, barring significant capacity constraints, as production in the Black Sea region rebounded significantly from drought-hit 2010 levels. Higher production as a result of ideal harvesting conditions, weak export competition and strong demand from North Africa and Western Asia has meant exports of Russian grain have soared during the first three months of the 2011-12 crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Analysts now predict that Russia, the world's second-largest exporter of wheat, could export 19 million tons this year, up from 12 million tons last year. Russia could harvest between 95 million and 100 million tons of grain next year, similar to levels during 2008, one of the country's largest harvest on record, Sizov said earlier this month.
The healthy projection forecast is a result of an increase in acreage and improved winter planting conditions," Sizov said.

EU Wheat Surplus Rises On Export Competition - Strategie Grains (Source: CME)
The European Union's wheat surplus increased over the last month because of export competition from Australia and Argentina, Strategie Grains said, adding this could pull down prices across the bloc in the short-term. The influential analyst said it estimates EU wheat exports to third-party countries were down by 0.7 million tons this month, to 14.9 million tons, as supply from the southern hemisphere arrived on the market and stirred competition. As a result, Strategie Grains said EU wheat must recapture some export demand on the world market, with countries such as the UK and Romania needing to target other suppliers within the bloc, such as France. This could lead to a short-term price fall in these countries, the analyst said, which in turn could pull down wheat prices across the EU because of the increased competition.
However, Strategie Grains said French milling wheat prices could increase slightly in the long-term due to Russia's reduced presence on the world market, which would restrict the downside potential for wheat from other origins. EU wheat prices have been pressured by fierce competition from the Black Sea region in recent months after production rebounded significantly from drought-hit 2010 levels. But JPMorgan said Wednesday it thought that Russia could remain a major exporter of wheat in 2012, barring significant capacity constraints. Strategie Grains added that price movements at the end of this crop year will be more dependent on the outlook for the following season, with 2012-13 shaping up to be fairly comfortable at a global level and slightly more so in the EU.

China 2012 cotton growing area forecast to decline 10.5 pct -Beijing Cotlook Survey
BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) - China's cotton planting area is projected to decline 10.5 percent in 2012 from this year due to falling cotton prices, a subsidiary of U.K.-based Cotlook Ltd. said in its Beijing Cotton Outlook survey published on Thursday.
The country's cotton area next year is forecast to be 4.81 million hectares, or 72.16 million mu, according to the Beijing Cotton Outlook's survey, which is based on 13 major cotton producing areas.

Colombia coffee output falls 13.7 pct in Nov -Growers
BOGOTA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee output fell for the eighth straight month in November, dropping 13.7 percent from a year ago due to heavy rains that limited flowering, the coffee growers federation said on Wednesday.
The world's third biggest exporter after Brazil and Vietnam has seen output drop since 2009 and struggled to regain historical production levels because of bad weather and a renovation program to replace aging trees.

S.Korea Nov LNG imports drop 34.5 pct y/y after stock build
SEOUL, Dec 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) dropped 34.5 percent in November from a year ago, as the world's second-largest buyer reduced volumes after building winter inventories in September and October, customs data showed on Thursday.
South Korea imported 2.32 million tonnes in November, down from 3.54 million tonnes a year earlier, Korea Customs Service data showed.

Oil Declines a Third Day in New York on Signs Industrial Output Shrinking (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil headed for the biggest weekly decline since September in New York as investors speculated that fuel demand may falter amid shrinking industrial production in the U.S., Europe and China. Futures fell a third day after figures from the Federal Reserve yesterday showed output at factories, mines and utilities in the U.S. slid 0.2 percent in November, the first decrease since April. Chinese factory production may decline for a second month in December, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicated. Euro area manufacturers may face a fifth straight month of contraction, a separate report showed. Crude for January delivery dropped as much as 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $93.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.59 at 10:51 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday slid 1.1 percent to $93.87, the lowest close since Nov. 2.

Gold Market Rout Leaves Traders Least Bullish in Four Months: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold’s biggest rout in three months means traders are the least bullish since July and Dennis Gartman, the economist who sold the last of his metal on the day the slump began, warned of further declines. Ten of 21 surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to gain next week, the lowest proportion since July 29. Three were neutral. While bullion’s slide of as much as 9 percent this week took its drop from the record $1,923.70 an ounce reached in September to almost 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market, investors are still holding the most metal ever in exchange-traded products, a wager now valued at $119.2 billion.
Commodities retreated the most in almost three months and more than $640 billion was wiped off the value of global equities on Dec. 14 after the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new stimulus measures. That combined with signs of increased funding stress in Europe helped drive the dollar to the highest since January against the euro. Gold typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.

Record Big Ship Deliveries to Hit Asia Lines as Europeans Team Up: Freight (Source: Bloomberg)
Container lines are losing money on Asia-Europe routes after slashing rates more than 50 percent this year because of a price war and excess capacity. In 2012, 42 of the biggest ships ever built will join the competition. The record number of ships able to hold more than 13,000 containers entering service will be almost double this year’s tally of 22, according to Alphaliner and Clarkson Plc data. They will boost the total fleet to about 100. Ships this big are only used on Asia-Europe routes as they are too large for U.S. ports. Mediterranean Shipping Co. and its new partner, Marseilles- based CMA CGM SA, will lead the surge, receiving 21 ships and boosting their combined fleet to 49. Asian lines will have 26 such-sized vessels by the end of next year, leaving them reliant on smaller, less fuel-efficient ships to compete with the alliance and Copenhagen-based A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, which together account for about half of Asia-North Europe capacity.

20111216 1002 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soy futures end higher amid worries about the South American crop. Dry weather in Argentina fueling concerns about potential yield loss, although traders say the growing season is still early. A weaker dollar added to the support. Traders also say the market's inability to pierce support at $11 prompted short-covering. Prices rallied despite losses in corn. CBOT March soy ends up 11 3/4c, or 1.1%, to $11.11 3/4 a bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
March soybean oil ends up 0.56 cents to 49.36 cents/lb, while March soybean meal flat at $286.30 per short ton.

Palm oil slides as euro zone debt woes deepen
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures tumbled as much as 2.2 percent, with a global commodities sell-off extending from the previous day over concerns that the European debt crisis is spiralling out of control.
"There was no reason for the market to go up yesterday, so it is giving back what shouldn't happened in the first place," said a trader with a commodities firm in Malaysia.

Argentine soy crushing falls 8.4 pct in October
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Argentine soy-crushing fell 8.4 percent in October year-on-year to 3.3 million tonnes following a record 2009/10 crop and a smaller 2010/11 harvest, the government said in its latest crushing report.  
Argentina is the world's top supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the No. 3 exporter of unprocessed beans.

Rain sparse in south Brazil as soy planting wanes
SAO PAULO, Dec 14 - Rains forecast for Brazil's main soy belt should alleviate concerns that a few weeks of dry weather might turn into a widespread drought and hurt the world's second largest soy crop.
But fields in the No. 3 growing state Rio Grande do Sul, which is about to finish planting in the coming days, will likely continue dry for a couple weeks, local forecasters said. And the southernmost state has a history of prolonged droughts.