20180605 Soybean Futures Technical View

Soybean Technical: 

Could test further downside if defense near 993 level fail. 

Else, might rebound.

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St set for flat open as trade worries offset tech glow - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 09:13:20 PM

• Twitter jumps on addition to S&P 500 index
• Francesca's Holdings drops after Q1 results
• Mylan gains as biosimilar gets FDA nod

Adds comment, details; Updates prices

By Medha Singh

June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were on track for a flat open on Tuesday, as a surge in technology stocks, that had pushed Nasdaq to a record close, was offset by trade concerns.

A strong gain in technology stocks on Monday, led by Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, boosted investment sentiment, which had already got a lift from the recent strong jobs data.

However, U.S. equity futures gave little indication if the gains would hold. U.S. President Donald Trump may seek separate talks with Canada and Mexico in a bid to get individual trade deals with the two countries, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday.

"The market is a little bit on edge when it comes to trade talks," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist and senior portfolio manager at SlateStone Wealth LLC in New York.

A relentless rally in stocks last year, that sent the main U.S. indexes to record highs almost every other week, came to a halt in late January on issues ranging from rising interest rates, trade concerns to geopolitical issues.

However, strength in the U.S. economy, as shown by the latest jobs report, helped investors shift their focus back to fundamentals.

"The carry-over from Friday, with the strong employment report, is a fact that a lot of people have been light on their equity holdings and they're using this report as a reason to get back."

At 8:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 1 points, or 0 percent. S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.25 points, or 0.01 percent and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 10.5 points, or 0.15 percent.

Mexico is set to impose a 20 percent tariff on U.S. pork imports, sources told Reuters, in response to Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum levied last week.

Later this week Canada plays host to the G7 summit with six of the seven members outraged at the United States over a slew of recent moves by Trump.

Twitter gained 4 percent in premarket trading on the social network's inclusion in the benchmark S&P 500 index. Netflix, which is set to join the S&P 100, rose marginally.

Accessories and apparel retailer Francesca's Holdings fell 13 percent after first-quarter revenue came in below analysts' estimates.

Starbucks dropped 1 percent after Executive Chairman Howard Schultz, who built the coffee chain into a global powerhouse, decided to step away.

Mylan rose 4.4 percent after U.S. health regulators approved its biosimilar to Amgen Inc's blockbuster drug, Neulasta.

In economic data, ISM's non-manufacturing PMI for May is due at 10:00 am ET. It is expected to have increased to 57.5 from a prior reading of 56.8.

(Reporting by Shounak Dasgupta in Bengaluru)

 

 

 

PRECIOUS-Gold holds steady, but upbeat economic outlook a threat - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 08:59:38 PM

• Spot gold targets low of $1,281.76/oz -technicals
• Palladium off six week highs hit on Monday

(Recasts, updates prices, adds details)

By Maytaal Angel

LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday as the dollar steadied near a six month high, but upside in the precious metal was firmly capped by bullish global economic fundamentals.

Investors are awaiting economic data that might confirm the U.S. economy is on track for a strong quarter, with rising bond yields also supporting the greenback and making dollar priced gold costlier for non-U.S. investors.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery were flat at $1,297 per ounce.

"Prices have been dropping since May in anticipation of a Fed rate hike. There's still some strengthening of the dollar to come. Geopolitics is on the backburner," said Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data released on Friday fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its policy meeting starting on June 12.

Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and reduce investor interest in non-yielding bullion.

A strong reading on ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May later this session will seal the case for another Fed rate hike, following up on a rate hike in March and might even prompt the central bank to strike a hawkish stance.

"There is lack of interest in gold. It is more interesting for equities and people are making profit there, so nobody wants to trade in gold for the time being," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

Global stocks hit a record high on Tuesday, spurred on by a new all-time peak for Apple, a 17-year top for European tech firms and news that Twitter and Netflix were set to join Wall Street's flagship S&P 500 index.

Rising equity markets tend to signal strong investor risk appetite, weighing on gold, seen as a safe haven asset.

Spot gold is still targeting the May 21 low of $1,281.76 per ounce, as its bounce from this level has completed, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

In other precious markets, silver rose 0.3 percent to $16.42 an ounce.

Platinum fell 0.7 percent to $894.20 an ounce. It earlier hit a low of $888, the lowest since May 21.

Palladium was 0.6 percent lower at $988.80 per ounce after hitting a six-week high of $1,010.50 the previous session.

 

(Additional reporting by Karen Rodrigues and Swati Verma in Bengaluru
Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Alexander Smith)

 

 

 

CBOT Trends-Wheat up 7-9 cents, corn up 2-3, soybeans up 1-2 - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 09:22:49 PM

CHICAGO, June 5 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Tuesday.

NOTE: Mexico responded in kind to U.S. President Donald Trump's metals tariffs by imposing its own duties on American steel, while also targeting politically sensitive agricultural products from pork to bourbon.

WHEAT - Up 7 to 9 cents per bushel

• Higher on a technical bounce following Monday's 3.4 percent slide in the CBOT July contract. Worries about poor yield prospects in the Black Sea region and Australia add support.
• Rally limited by seasonal pressure from the start of the U.S. winter wheat harvest.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture late Monday said the U.S. winter wheat harvest was 5 percent complete. The USDA also rated 37 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 38 percent the previous week.
• The USDA rated 70 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop as good to excellent, near the average analyst expectation of 71 percent.
• CBOT July soft red winter wheat last up 9 cents at $5.14-1/4 per bushel. K.C. July hard red winter wheat last traded up 9-3/4 cents at $5.31-1/4 and MGEX July spring wheat was up 7 cents at $6.00-1/4 a bushel.

CORN - Up 2 to 3 cents per bushel

• Corn heading higher in a technical bounce after the July contract hit a two-month low at $3.80 in early moves. Upside momentum capped by mostly favorable U.S. weather and strong crop condition ratings.
• Traders eyeing chart support at the July contract's 200-day moving average at $3.82.
• The USDA late Monday rated 78 percent of the corn as good to excellent, down from 79 percent a week earlier but still among the highest U.S. corn ratings for this time of year in records dating to the 1980s.
• CBOT July corn last traded up 3 cents at $3.83-3/4 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Up 1 to 2 cents per bushel

• Soybeans higher in a technical bounce after the CBOT July contract set a two-week low below $10 in early moves. Rally capped by favorable U.S. growing conditions and uncertainty about U.S. trade tensions with China, the world's top soy importer.
• The USDA late Monday rated 75 percent of the U.S. soybean crop as good to excellent, above an average of analyst expectations of 74 percent.
• India is considering raising import tax on some edible oils, government sources said.
• CBOT July soybeans last up 2 cents at $10.03-3/4 per bushel.

 

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

 

 

 

VEGOILS-Palm hits near 1-month low on weak exports - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 07:07:10 PM

• Malaysia's June exports could be lower than May
• Palm trims losses on report India will hike import duty on soft oils
• Palm falls 4.7 pct in 2018 after shedding 20 pct last year

Updates with closing prices

By Rajendra Jadhav

MUMBAI, June 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended declines on Tuesday to hit their lowest in nearly a month, weighed down by lacklustre export demand, but they trimmed losses in the second half of the trading session on reports India will raise an import tax on soft oils.

The palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.37 percent at 2,400 ringgit ($604.53) a tonne by the close. Earlier in the session, the contract hit 2,382 ringgit, its lowest since May 8.

Trading volume stood at 33,099 lots of 25 tonnes.

"Ramadan buying has fizzled out. Fresh export orders are not coming in at the expected pace," a Kuala Lumpur-based palm trader said.

Buyers typically stock up on palm oil a month before Ramadan, which began in mid-May this year.

Malaysia's palm oil exports in May dropped 8.8 percent from April to around 1.2 million tonnes, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said last week.

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) said the country's May palm oil exports fell 9.9 percent from a month ago.

In Indonesia, the world's top palm oil exporter, shipments of palm and palm kernel oils plunged 13.6 percent in April, data from the Indonesia Palm Oil Association showed.

"If the current trend continues, then Malaysia's June export numbers could be lower than May," another Kuala Lumpur-based palm trader said.

The market pared losses later in the session on reports India could raise an import duty on soft oils like soyoil, making palm competitive, the dealer said.

Indian farm secretary said an import duty on soft oils could be raised in a week.

In related vegetable oils, the Chicago July soybean oil contract was down 0.2 percent, while September soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped up to 1.25 percent.

Palm oil is affected by movements in rival edible oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Palm oil may break a support at 2,408 ringgit per tonne and fall to the next support at 2,364 ringgit, as suggested by a retracement analysis, said Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, are expected to slip to an eight-month low in May, weighed down by a decline in production, according to a Reuters poll.

 

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1100 GMT
Contract	Month	Last	Change	Low	High	Volume
MY PALM OIL	JUN8	2404	-9.00	2384	2407	373
MY PALM OIL	JUL8	2399	-7.00	2379	2406	2,186
MY PALM OIL	AUG8	2400	-7.00	2382	2410	14,060
CHINA PALM OLEIN	SEP8	5022	-100.00	4992	5092	410,950
CHINA SOYOIL	SEP8	5832	-74.00	5754	5888	693,504
CBOT SOY OIL	JUL8	30.86	5.40	30.71	30.97	7,285
INDIA PALM OIL	JUN8	646.60	5.40	636.40	649.80	1,614
INDIA SOYOIL	JUN8	755.00	4.55	746.10	759.95	17,430
NYMEX CRUDE	JUL8	64.52	-0.23	64.43	65.29	154,338
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

 

 

($1 = 3.9700 ringgit)

($1 = 6.4108 Chinese yuan)

($1 = 67.2000 Indian rupees)

 

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Jane Merriman)

 

 

 

U.S. asks some OPEC producers to pump more oil, no specific figure – sources - Reuters

05-Jun-2018 09:13:56 PM

DUBAI/LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - The United States has unofficially asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers to raise oil output, three OPEC and industry sources said on Tuesday, although it has not requested a specific figure.

Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. government had asked them to increase oil production by about 1 million barrels a day (bpd).

 

(Reporting by Rania El Gamal and Alex Lawler; editing by Louise Heavens)

 

 

UPDATE 4-Oil nears one-month low on report U.S. asked OPEC to raise supply - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 07:01:07 PM

• Market focuses on oil supplies, OPEC meeting on June 22
• U.S. asked OPEC for 1 mln bpd output hike - Bloomberg

Updates throughout

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures hit their lowest in close to a month on Tuesday following a report that the U.S. government had asked Saudi Arabia and other major exporters to increase oil output.

International benchmark Brent was down $1.09 by 1040 GMT at $74.20 a barrel, its lowest since May 8. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 21 cents to $64.54.

The U.S. government has asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers to increase oil production by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd), Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The request comes after U.S. retail gasoline prices surged to their highest in more than three years and President Donald Trump publicly complained about OPEC policy and rising oil prices.

It also follows Washington's decision to reimpose sanctions on Iran's crude exports that had previously displaced about 1 million bpd from global markets, the report said.

"With the midterm elections coming up, obviously he wants lower gasoline prices, but at the same time, he's alienating himself from the rest of the world ... so is anybody, apart from Saudi Arabia, maybe going to listen, or comply or cooperate?" PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said.

"This seems to be an intervention in OPEC's supply policy ...(the U.S.) walks away from the Iran (nuclear) deal, which pushes up oil prices and less than a month later, demands producers raise production ... this story is Trump-esque."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Vienna on June 22 to decide whether the group and non-OPEC producers, including Russia, should raise output to make up for any supply shortfall from Iran and Venezuela.

Saudi Arabia and Russia were already discussing raising OPEC and non-OPEC oil output by around 1 million bpd, sources familiar with the matter said on May 25.

Global oil supply has tightened with the OPEC-led production cuts that began in early 2017.

"(The output decision) is going to be the main event of the month and the main input for the second half of the year, so any change in OPEC policy is a big event," Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said.

Fund managers this year racked up a record bet on a continued rise in oil prices, but the sustained increase in U.S. shale production and now the prospect of higher OPEC supply have prompted many investors to pare those positions.

 

(Additional reporting by Chung in SEOUL and Roslan Khasawneh in SINGAPORE; Editing by Dale Hudson)

 

 

 

FOREX-Dollar heads towards 6-month highs as trade war fears rise - Reuters News

05-Jun-2018 08:19:34 PM

• Strong ISM data would seal case for a U.S. rate hike next week
• Mexican peso leads losers on trade war concerns

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar on Tuesday edged towards a six-month high hit last week as the latest bout in a trade war between the U.S. and its commercial partners prompted selling in emerging market curencies, but gains were capped before a summit this weekend.

Markets were also awaiting data that might confirm the U.S. economy is on track for a strong June quarter, lifting Treasury yields as well as giving the dollar an additional boost.

"I am surprised the latest round of trade tariffs hasn't fuelled a bigger drop in other currencies as this basically signals inflationary pressures will rise in the U.S. and prompt the Fed to raise interest rates more," Commerzbank FX strategist Esther Maria Reichelt said.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar climbed 0.1 percent at 94.13. It hit 95.02 last week, its highest since early November 2017, and has risen more than 5 percent since mid-April.

The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar led losers against the dollar as trade war concerns rose.

Mexico said it will impose a 20-percent tariff on U.S. pork imports after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium.

The tariff was in response to the Trump administration's decision last week to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexican exporters on grounds that countries including Mexico engage in competition damaging to U.S. national security.

The U.S. decision to go ahead with the steel and aluminum tariffs has complicated talks with Mexico and Canada to rework the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). I

ING strategists said in a note the latest moves by Mexico might prompt Trump to pull out of NAFTA altogether.

With correlations between short-dated U.S. bond yields and the dollar strengthening to their strongest since January 2017, investors have responded by buying the greenback in recent days, especially against the euro and emerging market currencies.

Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields are up by about 20 basis points (bps) in a week, pushing two-year government yields to 2.50 percent and within a whisker of a decade high of the 2.59 percent hit last month.

"The dollar is perched around some important levels and its strength can be judged from the fact that the euro/dollar has failed to break above the $1.17 line despite falling Italian political concerns," Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux said.

EURO ZONE CONCERNS

The dollar's strength was also helped by the euro's lingering weakness with latest headlines offering little evidence that Italy would stick to a path of fiscal restraint.

Bond yields rose on Tuesday, after new Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte promised to bring radical change as he sought parliamentary backing for an anti-establishment government.

The euro was broadly flat at $1.16930. Since hitting a 10-month low of $1.1510 a week ago, it has recovered somewhat as investors took comfort from the formation of a coalition government in Rome.

However, market moves were muted before a Group of Seven summit starting on Friday.

The June 8 to June 9 meeting in Canada will begin with a working session on economic growth and trade - topical issues after Trump's imposing the steel and aluminium tariffs.

Strong U.S. employment data published on Friday has revived bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three more times this year. Market expectations are for two further rate hikes before until December.

A strong reading on ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May later in the day might seal the case for another rate hike at its policy meeting next week, following up on a rate hike in March and might even prompt the Fed to take a hawkish stance.

"The U.S. jobs data was really strong. The Fed could indicate it will raise rates four times this year, including an expected hike in June and one in March," Daiwa senior currency strategist Yukio Ishizuki said.

 

(Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in TOKYO
Editing by Louise Ireland)