Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures finish at an all-time closing high on concerns about shrinking supplies. Traders expect federal forecasters Friday will slash their outlook for end-of-season corn supplies, already estimated at a 15-year nadir. Lower-than-expected March 1 inventories, reported Thursday, indicate high prices haven't slowed demand. "It appears that consumption is progressing at a rate that cannot be sustained by available supplies," says Darrel Good, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. CBOT May corn settles up 24 1/4c at $7.60 1/4 a bushel, above the previous high of $7.54 3/4 reached in June 2008. It earlier matched the intraday record of $7.65.
Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures close sharply higher on increasing fears that hot, dry weather is hurting production in the Plains. Parts of Kansas, the country's top wheat-growing state, saw record high temperatures and "incredibly dry air" during the weekend, according to Freese-Notis Weather. The region has struggled with dryness since hard red winter wheat was sown last fall. The USDA's first wheat ratings of the year, due at 4 p.m. EDT, are expected to reflect drought stress. CBOT May wheat climbs 30 1/2c to $7.90/bushel, KCBT May soars 41 1/2c to $9.48 and MGE May jumps 39c to $9.61 1/2.
Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures finish firmer on spillover support from rallies in neighboring markets. Rally in CBOT wheat -- up 4% -- lifted rice as both grains are global food staples, analysts say. Corn futures closed at an all-time settlement high on supply concerns, adding to the positive tone, they note. Rice lacks its own bullish storyline, as global supplies are ample. CBOT May rice rises 10 1/2c to $13.91 1/2 per hundredweight.
Oil Declines for First Day in Four on Qaddafi Ouster Plan Report, Supplies (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil declined for the first time in four days in New York after a report that the sons of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi are seeking his ouster and as analysts forecast an increase in U.S. crude inventories.
India Food Inflation May Have Eased To 8% End-March - Official (Source: CME)
Food inflation in India may have eased to around 8% at the end of March, and a good winter-sown crop will help cool prices further, a member of the Planning Commission, the top government think tank, said. The year-on-year inflation rate for food articles fell to 9.50% in the week ended March 19 from 10.05% a week before, according to latest government data. "We will have very good winter crop this year, so prices will come down," Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen told reporters. In India, winter crop is mostly harvested from April. Food inflation rose to more than 18% late December due to tight supplies of fruits and vegetables. Prices have cooled since because of government measures such as a temporary export ban on key vegetable onion, but are still high.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last week acknowledged that inflation, particularly in food products, remains a problem, although he was hopeful it would ease in coming months. Planning Commission's Sen also said the government should allow shipments of wheat and rice by private traders to make room for the new crop in choked warehouses, but urged that the government shouldn't whittle down its own reserves to prevent a sudden price surge. "Grain shipments by private trade should be allowed with an export tax," he said. The government has maintained a ban on export of wheat since 2007 and rice since 2008 to keep local supplies steady. India is expecting a record wheat harvest for a second successive year in the crop year through June, and traders are lobbying for grain shipments to benefit from strong demand and prices globally.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, its index of world food prices in February jumped 2.2% from January--the eighth monthly rise in a row--to the highest level since the agency started monitoring prices in 1990. India, the world's second-largest rice and wheat grower, had as much as 45.95 million tons of the two grains in government stocks as of end-February, more than double its requirement for welfare programs.
Ukraine Will Remove Grain Export Curbs If Exporters Finance Planting - Minister (Source: CME)
Ukraine's government will remove all limitations on the export of grain if the parliament approves the draft law allowing traders to export grain only if they pre-pay framers for future harvest, Agriculture Minister Mykolai Prisyazhnyuk said, as quoted by the agriculture ministry's press service. Prisyazhnyuk said the draft law was likely to be approved by the Parliament before this year's grain harvest began. The new law will stipulate that traders must pay 50% of their grain's value before planting, 30% while crops are growing, and the remaining 20% after the grain is harvested. He added that the practice existed in Ukraine before 1917 and was now adopted by many countries, including Brazil. The government imposed a quota of 2.7 million metric tons on the export of grain Oct. 19 until Dec. 31, including 500,000 tons of wheat, 200,000 tons of barley, two million tons of corn and 1,000 tons each rye and buckwheat.
Later the grain export quota was extended to the end of June this year and increased by 3.5 million tons, including 500,000 tons of wheat and three million tons of corn. Ukraine's grain harvest in 2010 fell by 14.8% on the year to 39.23 million tons in clean weight because of drought.
Australia Can Expect Bumper 2011-12 Winter Wheat Crop - USDA (Source: CME)
Australia can look forward to another bumper year for winter crops with high prices and excellent soil moisture levels in most growing areas likely to push plantings to near record levels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's foreign agriculture service said in a report. Wheat production in the 2011-12 crop year that started Friday is projected at 25.5 million metric tons, unchanged from a revised estimate for last crop year, with a significant increase in the area planted this year likely to be balanced by a return to normal yields, the USDA reported. Australia's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, said a month ago that it expects 2011-12 wheat output of 24.26 million tons, down a record 26.33 million tons in the crop year that ended Thursday. Plantings of 13.81 million hectares this year are up from 13.37 million hectares last crop year.
After annual domestic consumption of around 6.0 million tons is met, the balance of production is available for export, usually making Australia one of the world's top wheat exporters. The USDA estimated that wheat plantings this crop year will expand to 13.8 million hectares from an actual 13.35 million hectares, falling just short of record plantings in 2009-10 of 14.03 million hectares. Pre-planting soil moisture levels in some areas in eastern Australia are at their highest since 1974, while in other areas soil moisture might have reached record levels, it said. Wheat exports in the shipping year ending Sept. 30, 2012, is forecast by the USDA at 14.0 million tons, down from a revised estimate for this year of 15.0 million tons, which was raised in line with higher-than-expected shipments in the October-January period, the USDA reported.
Industry sources expect high monthly export levels to continue through May, with the 2010-11 crop experiencing "almost unprecedented export demand, particularly for weather-damaged wheat, and this has resulted in unusually high export volumes," the USDA said. Strong demand for 2010-11 crop exports will partially constrain growth in domestic consumption and growth in closing inventories, though domestic consumption is expected to reach above average levels, it said.
Corn rises for third day on tight supply, highest since '08
SYDNEY, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures rose for a third straight session touching their loftiest since the 2008 global food crisis and could be on track to set a fresh record soon on fears of tight supplies. The tight stocks estimate "raises prospects that if there are any production hiccups over the course of 2011, then the U.S. and indeed the world, is going to be running very short of feed grains for the next 12 months," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Philippines awards import rights for 255,348 T rice (Source: CME)
MANILA, April 4 (Reuters) - The Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) on Monday awarded import rights to 13 traders for an initial volume of 255,348 tonnes of rice, less than half of the amount approved for private sector purchases this year.
Private traders have been allocated 600,000 tonnes of imports this year, and bids for 693,748 tonnes were submitted last month.
India food inflation seen easing to 8 pct by end-March: adviser
NEW DELHI, April 4 (Reuters) - The prospect of a good winter harvest is likely to bring down food inflation in India to about 8 percent by end-March, a senior government adviser said on Monday.
Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen also said private traders should be allowed to export wheat with a small duty.
Spotty, light rains fall in U.S. Plains wheat belt
CHICAGO, April 1 (Reuters) - Light rains fell in the top U.S. winter wheat state of Kansas the past day providing some relief to the parched crop but the remainder of the belt was dry, a forecaster said on Friday.
"The crop is running on fumes in the west and no prospect for any change," said Mike Palmerino, forecaster with Telvent DTN weather. "Kansas is still hanging in there with these occasional light showers."
Cocoa rises early on Ivory Coast standoff (Source: Reuters)
ICE cocoa futures were higher in early trade as a standoff between presidential rivals in top grower Ivory Coast diminished expectations there could be a quick resolution to a conflict which has brought exports to a virtual halt. Raw sugar futures on ICE rose in early trade, tracking gains in other commodity markets.
Thailand may miss rubber target after floods-traders
BANGKOK, April 4 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's biggest rubber exporter, may not produce the 3.3 million tonnes it is aiming for this year because mudslides have devastated plantation areas and further heavy rain is forecast, traders said on Monday. Floods and mudslides have cut off road and air transport in southern Thailand and killed 45 people across 10 provinces.
Cotton market may fray, but not unravel after US plantings report
SINGAPORE, April 1 (Reuters) - A 14 percent surge in U.S. cotton plantings for 2011 may not be enough to halt the two-year rally that has pushed prices up over 500 percent to their highest since the American Civil War as strong demand from Asia underpins the market. Cotton was the top performing commodity in 2010, a feat it repeated in the first three months of 2011, attracting huge speculative interest that peaks in the third quarter of 2010 when fears of a supply squeeze started to emerge.
