20111130 1820 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3018, changed : -44 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : falling lower, seller testing market.
Support : 2970, 2950, 2920, 2900 level.
Resistance : 3020, 3050, 3070, 3100 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded loss for the 7th day with quiet volume transacted. Overnight soy oil ended little higher and currently trading lower while crude oil price also trading recording loss.
Traders choose to reduce exposure as Bali palm oil conference(ends Friday) started today awaits fresh catalyst or latest research from industry expert.
Daily chart formed a down bar candle with small upper and lower shadow closed in between middle and lower Bollinger band after market opened and edge up little higher followed by selling activities pressed price downward all the way to closed near the low of the day.
Technical reading switch to suggesting a side way range bound market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111130 1757 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1459, changed : +14 points, volume : lower(remained high for Dec volume).
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, seller leaving.
Support : 1458, 1445, 1440, 1435 level.
Resistance : 1470, 1477, 1485, 1491, 1500 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded gains gains with increased in Dec contract volume participation doing about 5.5 points premium compare to cash market that closed substantially higher. Overnight U.S. market closed little higher and today Asia markets ended mixed while European markets currently trading lower.
Heavy buying activities on index linked stock lifted both KLCI and FKLI to trade higher despite news on S&P cuts U.S. bank's credit ratings. Meanwhile, Thailand cuts interest rate as floods condition needs more easing. Germany reported lower unemployment and better retail sales.
Daily chart formed an up bar candle closed above middle Bollinger band resistance level after market opened and soften little lower followed by upward recovery surging higher all the way into positive territory to closed near the high of the day.
Chart study revised to suggesting a side way range bound market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111130 1721 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

DJIA chart reading :  pullback correction little downside biased.

 Hang Seng chart reading : pullback correction little downside biased .

KLCI chart reading : side way range bound.

20111130 1611 Global Markets & Commodities Related News.

Asian Stocks Fall After Standard & Poor’s Cuts U.S. Banks’ Credit Ratings (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks fell after Standard & Poor’s reduced credit ratings for lenders including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. as Europe’s debt crisis cuts the global earnings outlook. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. Japan’s second-biggest bank by market value, fell 1 percent in Tokyo. Nanya Technology Corp. (2408), a Taiwanese memory-chip maker, slumped 6.7 percent after a report DRAM prices for the second half of November fell. Japanese power producers led gains among companies whose earnings are viewed as stable throughout the economic cycle. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 112.63 as of 3:40 p.m. in Tokyo, headed for a 7.5 percent drop for the month. All but three of 10 industry groups on the measure declined, with about five stocks falling for every four that advanced.

Asian shares fall on caution over euro zone bailout progress (Bloomberg)
TOKYO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell and the euro trimmed gains as caution set in over the chance for more progress in resolving euro zone debt woes after officials agreed to strengthen a rescue fund and seek more aid from the International Monetary Fund.
"The focus remains on who will give money, to which no fresh news was provided," said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo, adding that investors were likely  relaxing their risk aversion stance.

China’s Stocks Fall Most in 4 Months After Xia Sees Tight Policies in 2012 (Bloomberg)
China’s stocks fell the most in almost four months after a central bank adviser said he sees the nation keeping tight monetary policies next year and Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. forecast plunging export growth. China Vanke Co. (000002) and China Citic Bank Corp. led declines for financial stocks after Xia Bin said policy fine-tuning doesn’t mean a loosening of credit or changes in interest rates. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (600019) and Anhui Conch Cement Co. slid more than 3 percent after Shenyin & Wanguo estimated the export growth rate almost halved this month while industrial output slowed. PetroChina Co. slid to a record low and Jiangxi Copper Co. fell to the lowest in 16 months after Morgan Stanley said further commodity gains may be limited next year. “Investors who expected looser policies have come to realize that’s not going to happen,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The economy is going to slow down. That’s bad for stocks.”

South Korea Factory Output Drops as Europe Contagion Hits Exports: Economy (Bloomberg)
South Korea’s industrial output fell, India’s economy grew the least in more than two years and Thailand cut interest rates as an Asian slowdown limits the region’s ability to support a faltering world recovery. Korea’s production fell 0.7 percent in October from September, Statistics Korea said today. India’s gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in the three months through September, the government said. Thailand’s benchmark rate fell to 3.25 percent from 3.5 percent. Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is capping demand for shipments from economies in the region that has been leading the global recovery. In China, stocks tumbled on concern a slowdown will deepen after central bank adviser Xia Bin said a government pledge to fine-tune policies doesn’t mean credit controls will be loosened or property curbs reversed.

FOREX-Euro inches up, takes EFSF plans in stride
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The euro inched higher on Wednesday as the market gave a guarded reception to details on the euro zone's new lending facility and on proposals to expand funding for the IMF so it could lend to troubled members such as Italy.
"Flows from institutional investors show that they have returned to selling (risky assets) again," Tomita said.

U.S. wheat drops 0.7 pct; euro zone worries weigh
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat slid amid a broad-based weakness in the commodity markets following a near 4 percent rally in the last session, its biggest one-day gain in more than a month.  "Corn and wheat markets are generally tracking the outside market as Europe's debt crisis is still playing in the minds of investors," said Lynette Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Firm cash seen limiting CBOT wheat/corn deliveries
CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. grain traders largely expect no corn and wheat deliveries against the Chicago Board of Trade December contracts on Wednesday, the first notice day for deliveries, due to strong prices in the cash markets.
Eight traders and analysts polled by Reuters were expecting no deliveries in oats, but deliveries of 2,000 to 3,000 soyoil contracts and zero to 200 soymeal. Two of the eight said there could be large deliveries of wheat by speculators.

Weather seen taking toll on Brazil '12 coffee-coop
BRASILIA, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2012 coffee harvest will be smaller than the last 'on-year' crop in 2010 because of bad weather that has taken a heavy toll on trees, local cooperative Cooparaiso said on Tuesday.
The coop is still preparing its output estimate for the world's top coffee grower, though it joins a growing number of local producers and exporters in dismissing the idea the next crop will be the boom year that some foreign analysts predict.

Dry, warm autumn brings risks for W.Europe grains
PARIS, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Unusually dry and warm autumn weather in western Europe could leave grains more vulnerable to a cold snap this winter in France and Germany and may already have led to some sowings being disrupted in Spain, analysts and crop experts said.
It was too early to predict potential losses and the arrival of rain and cooler weather in the coming weeks would ease the situation by strengthening plants, they said.

World sugar consumption to hit 201 mln T by 2020-ISO
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - World sugar consumption is set to grow to 201 million tonnes by 2020, growing by an average 2.02 percent a year, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) said on Tuesday.
ISO senior economist Leonardo Bichara Rocha told the annual ISO seminar that 60 percent of world consumption growth by 2020 would come from the Far East and the Indian sub-continent.

Cuban sugar harvest gets under way, 20 pct rise seen
HAVANA, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Cuba's 2011-2012 sugar harvest got under way on Tuesday as cane cutting began in Eastern Guantanamo province, official media reported, amid optimism that improved organization and more cane will translate into a 20 percent increase in raw sugar production.
The first of 46 mills was scheduled to open on Wednesday, and a second on Thursday, with plans calling for output to reach 1.45 million tonnes by the time the season ends in April, compared with 1.2 million tonnes Reuters estimates was produced during the previous harvest.

Brazil cane output seen down for first time in decade
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Centre-south Brazil is on track to produce 490 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2011/12, representing the first fall in sugar production in the South American country in a decade, Plinio Nastari, president of consultancy Datagro, said on Monday.
He told the annual International Sugar Organization (ISO) seminar that he expected total sugar production in Brazil to fall to 35.4 million tonnes in 2011/12 from 38.0 million in 2010/11. Brazil is the world's top sugar producer and exporter.

Africa's coffee output to rise by a third by 2015
NAIROBI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Africa's coffee output could leap by a third within the next five years as farmers scramble to replace mature trees with disease-resistant seeds to cash in on soaring global prices for the beans, a senior industry official said.
Poor prices, drought, disease and political instability in major producers such as Ivory Coast have led to neglect of coffee farms, while some farmers ditched the commodity in favour of planting staple foods such as maize.

Brent stays above $110, boosted by Mideast tensions, Europe bailout
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Brent crude stayed above $110, holding onto its previous session gains, as Iran's escalating tensions with the West and an agreement by euro zone ministers to ramp up the firepower of their bailout fund helped support prices.
"Overall sentiment in the market remains bullish even though oil futures edged down this morning," said Victor Shum of energy consulting firm Purvin & Gertz.

LME copper falls 1.3 pct as euro zone woes weigh
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Copper fell as a concrete solution to Europe's debt struggle remained elusive with a European Central Bank official saying the crisis has significantly worsened, further clouding the outlook for industrial metal demand.
"The situation in Europe and the world has significantly worsened over the past few weeks," ECB governing council member Christian Noyer said at a conference in Singapore. "Market stress has intensified."

Indonesia smelters to ship 800T tin despite export ban
PANGKAL PINANG, Indonesia, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Indonesian tin smelters will ship a total of 800 tonnes of tin to Singapore this week, breaking the industry's self-imposed ban on shipments from the world's top exporter, an official of the country's tin association said on Tuesday.
Smelters in Indonesia's main tin producing region of Bangka island stopped shipments from Oct. 1 in an effort to push benchmark tin prices above $23,000 a tonne, although PT Koba Tin sent a shipment to Singapore last week.

Thailand sees record 2011/12 sugar output at 9.9 mln T
BANGKOK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's second-biggest sugar exporter, has started its 2011/12 crushing season and is forecast to produce a record 9.9 million tonnes of the sweetener this year and may export  7.5 million tonnes in 2012, a senior official said on Tuesday.  
Although the forecast was more or less within market expectations of around 9.5 million to 10 million tonnes of sugar and largely unaffected by the floods, more supply from Thailand could put pressure on Thai premiums, a key indicator of demand.

China daily crude steel output steady in mid-Nov
BEIJING, Nov 29 (Reuters) - China produced 1.664 million tonnes of crude steel per day over the Nov 11-20 period, unchanged from the first 10 days of the month but still at a 12-month low, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association.
Chinese steel output has plummeted since the end of September, with uncertain demand prompting the country's mills into scheduling a series of overhauls, and the market is not expected to recover until next year.

Italy steel industry: revamp or meltdown
MILAN, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Italy's steel industry, second only to Germany's in the European Union, must focus on top quality specialised output for energy, engineering and other high-tech industries and its fragmented family firms consolidate if they are to beat off Asian rivals.
The industry still produces too much basic quality, low margin semi-finished steel products, known as commodity, in which it has been losing to lower-cost rivals, such as China, India, Turkey, Iran and other non-EU countries, analysts said.

Chile Oct copper output up 1 pct yr/yr
SANTIAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Chile, which provides around one-third of the world's copper, produced 466,822 tonnes of the red metal in October, up 1 percent from the same month last year, the government said on Tuesday.
Chile produced 436,743 tonnes of the metal in September, down 1.9 percent from the same month last year, the government said last month.

Gold on course for 3rd day of gains; Europe eyed
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Spot gold rose more than half a percent in thin trade, on course for a third consecutive session of gains, as investors continue to watch euro zone nations struggle to contain the region's two-year-old debt crisis.
"The dollar is slightly weaker compared to yesterday and gold is getting ahead," said a Shanghai-based trader, "But there is no clear direction in the market and people prefer to hold cash under such circumstance."

Russia's 10-m gold output up 5.1 pct at 177 T-lobby
MOSCOW, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Russian gold firms produced 177 tonnes of gold in the first 10 months of 2011, 5.1 percent more than in the same period of 2010, the Gold Industrialists' Union industry lobby said on Tuesday.  
The lobby expects Russia to produce 211 tonnes of gold this year, of which 185 tonnes will be mined.

METALS-LME copper falls 1.3 pct as euro zone woes weigh
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Wednesday as a concrete solution to Europe's debt struggle remained elusive with a European Central Bank official saying the crisis has significantly worsened, further clouding the outlook for industrial metal demand.
"The situation in Europe and the world has significantly worsened over the past few weeks," ECB governing council member Christian Noyer said at a conference in Singapore. "Market stress has intensified."

PRECIOUS-Gold on course for 3rd day of gains; Europe eyed
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Spot gold rose more than half a percent in thin trade on Wednesday, on course for a third consecutive session of gains, as investors continue to watch euro zone nations struggle to contain the region's two-year-old debt crisis.
"The dollar is slightly weaker compared to yesterday and gold is getting ahead," said a Shanghai-based trader, "But there is no clear direction in the market and people prefer to hold cash under such circumstance."

20111130 1219 Global Economic Related News.

South Korea: Current-account surplus widens to one-year high
South Korea’s current-account surplus widened to a one-year high in October as exports withstood weakening global demand and imports declined. The surplus was USD4.23bn, compared with a revised USD2.83bn in September, the Bank of Korea said in a statement. The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income. (Bloomberg)

China: Exports to Europe ‘falling off cliff’
Slumping shipping costs show exports to Europe from China are “falling off a cliff” as the euro- region crisis chokes off consumer spending. The chart of the day shows how the cost of hauling goods to Europe from China is falling faster than rates for deliveries to the US. The price for shipments to Europe is down 39% to USD511 per twenty-foot box since 31 Aug. That’s more than double the 18% slide in the cost to the US West Coast, measured in 40-foot units. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Global slowdown hits Japan as unemployment rate surges
Japan’s jobless rate surged by more than the predictions of 29 economists, adding pressure on the central bank to expand stimulus as Europe’s debt crisis deepens and gains by the yen impede the nation’s recovery. The unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in October from 4.1% in September, the statistics bureau said. Panasonic Corp. and TDK Corp are cutting jobs as a yen near a post World War II high against the dollar erodes profits and the nation struggles to recover from the March earthquake. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa indicated yesterday that JPY55trn (USD708bn) of credit and asset-buying programs will be expanded if necessary. (Bloomberg)

EU: Euro-Region economic confidence falls to two-year low
European confidence in the economic outlook dropped more than economists forecast in November as the 17-nation euro region edged closer to a recession and the fiscal crisis started to hit larger countries. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area fell to 93.7 from 94.8 in October, the European Commission in Brussels said. That’s the lowest since November 2009. Euro-area finance chiefs meeting in Brussels today are under increasing pressure to step up their crisis response as the two-year sovereign debt crisis spreads from the periphery to core countries, clouding growth prospects. Services and manufacturing contracted in November and the European Central Bank this month unexpectedly trimmed borrowing costs. (Bloomberg)

EU: EFSF gets Ministers’ approval for expansion of its capacity
Euro-area finance ministers have agreed to extend the capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund by “introducing sovereign bond practical risk participation and a co-investment approach,” the EFSF said in an e-mailed statement. The EFSF has a current lending capacity of EUR440bn. Without knowing the exact amounts needed, EFSF should be able to leverage its own resources of up to EUR250bn, the statement said. The options are “designed to enlarge the capacity of the EFSF so that the new instruments available to the EFSF can be used efficiently,” the statement cites Klaus Regling, EFSF CEO, as saying. Under the partial-risk protection, EFSF would provide a partial-protection certificate to a newly issued bond of a member state, the statement said. (Bloomberg)

US: Jump in US consumer confidence exceeds forecasts
Consumer confidence snapped back more than forecast in November as Americans turned less pessimistic on the outlook for jobs and wages, one reason why spending has jumped at the start of the holiday season. The Conference Board’s index increased to 56 from a revised 40.9 reading in October, the biggest monthly gain since April 2003. The improvement in sentiment may help sustain household purchases, which account for about 70% of the economy, after sales climbed on 25 Nov and 28 Nov, so-called Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Another report showing home prices continue to drop raises the risk that, without a pickup in hiring, consumers will retreat in early 2012. (Bloomberg)

20111130 1218 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

MAHB to increase terminal size of KLIA 2
Malaysia Airport Holdings has announced a larger terminal footprint for its new airport badged KLIA2, which is set to cost between RM3.6bn-RM3.9bn from an earlier estimated cost of RM2.5bn. Upon completion, KLIA2 will be the world’s largest purpose-built terminal for low-cost carriers (LCCs) with the capacity to serve up to 45m passengers annually. (Malaysian Reserve) Please see accompanying report

PSC could turn Sumatec around
Sumatec Resources has entered into a framework agreement with Markmore Energy (Labuan) Ltd and CaspiOilGas LLP for the award of a production sharing contract (PSC) for the Shelly oil field in Kazakhstan. Sumatec MD James Chan told The Edge Financial Daily: “This is a good contract and should be able to get Sumatec out of PN17 in about a year”. Sumatec has been in the PN17 category since April. (Financial Daily)

Yeoh expects YTL Comms to turn around
YTL Power International expects its subsidiary YTL Communications SB to turn around within two years, MD Tan Sri Francis Yeoh told shareholders at the company’s AGM yesterday. YTL launched its YES 4G wireless network in Nov last year. Yeoh told shareholders that YTL will launch an Android smartphone together with an “easy to understand” price plan in January next year. (Financial Daily)

Hap Seng sells KK Land for RM85m in RPT
Hap Seng Consolidated’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hap Seng Realty SB, is disposing of 2.16 acres of land with a cinema complex in Kota Kinabalu to Akal Megah SB for RM85m cash or RM90/sq ft. It said that the disposal price was arrived at after taking into consideration the sizeable area and prime location within the central commercial district of Kota Kinabalu City Centre. Hap Seng Realty acquired the land for RM28.5m in March 2010. (Financial Daily)

Eco Palm to invest RM820m on Pahang plant
Eco Palm Paper SB, a recycling-based company, expects to invest RM820m to set up a three-phase corrugated paper plant in Pekan, Pahang. Its MD Larry Yong said the company expects to see annual revenue of RM875m once the plant is fully completed by 2017. Berjaya Corp is the major shareholder of Eco Palm. (Malaysian Reserve)

MAS, Qantas in talks on closer ties
MAS and Qantas Airways are holding talks on a closer partnership in the run-up to the national carrier joining the One World Alliance. The partnership may include a code-sharing alliance that is expected to allow joint marketing, scheduling and pricing. (BT)

20111130 1155 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares, euro inch up after euro zone bailout plans
TOKYO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro inched up on Wednesday after European officials agreed to strengthen a bailout fund and seek more aid from the International Monetary Fund to help lend to troubled economies as Italy's borrowing costs hit fresh highs.
"Market reaction is muted as details about the EFSF were no surprise, the focus remains on who will give money, to which no fresh news was provided," said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo.

COMMODITIES-US oil up 3rd day; wheat, natgas also
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil rose for a third straight day on Tuesday, leading commodities up, as  stronger U.S. consumer confidence and a relatively successful  Italian bond auction raised investors' hopes in the economy.
"It's all the macroeconomic events that are driving every  single market," said Ron Lawson, a commentator on gold and  partner at commodities investment firm LOGIC Advisors in New  Jersey. U.S. gold futures rose about half a percent versus the  more than 3 percent gain in wheat and natural gas.

Oil rises on U.S. consumer data, Iran-UK row
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday on a report of improved U.S. consumer confidence, an Italian bond auction attracting demand and after an attack by Iranian protesters on two British embassy compounds in Tehran.
"A combination of the geopolitical risks related to the Iranian situation and the positive U.S. consumer confidence data have boosted oil futures," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

U.S. crude oil imports down in September-EIA
WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil imports continued to decline, falling 223,000 barrels per day in September from a year earlier, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
Crude imports averaged 9.006 million bpd in September, down 2.4 percent from the 9.229 million bpd imported during the month in 2010.

US crude and distillate stocks post surprise jump-API
Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories jumped unexpectedly last week as imports rose, while distillate stocks also climbed as refinery runs increased, weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.
U.S. crude stockpiles rose 3.4 million barrels in the week to Nov. 25, compared with analysts' expectations for a 200,000-barrel fall.

Natgas ends up 3 pct on firm cash, cool forecasts
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Tuesday, backed by firmer cash prices in the face of colder weather forecasts despite mild early-week temperatures and concerns about record high supplies.
"Cash was firmer today - there's been some cold weather in Texas and the forecasts look cooler - but production continues to lurch higher," a Texas-based trader said.

Euro Coal-Kalimantan bridge collapse not a factor
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Physical prompt coal prices were little changed on Tuesday afternoon, bolstered by stronger oil and a euro rise against the dollar but unaffected by the collapse of a bridge in Indonesia which halted barge transport over the weekend.
"The Chinese are still re-negotiating contracts, still looking for low prices and probably would welcome the delay to some Indonesian shipments," one European trader said.

20111130 1150 Global Market Related News.

Most Asian Stocks Decline as S&P Cuts U.S. Banks’ Credit Ratings (Source: Bloomberg)
Most Asian stocks (MXAP) fell after Standard & Poor’s cut credit ratings for lenders including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316) Japan’s second-biggest lenders by market value, fell 1.2 percent. Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets more than 80 percent of its sales abroad, slid 0.2 percent in Tokyo. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the largest global mining company, fell 0.5 percent in Sydney after metal prices declined. Japanese power producers advanced after the Nikkei newspaper said Kansai Electric Power Co. added 12 banks to its ranks of lenders. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 113.07 as of 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for a 7.3 percent drop for the month. Six of 10 industry groups on the measure declined, with seven stocks retreating for each that advanced.

Stock Futures in U.S. Decline After Bank Ratings Cut by Standard & Poor’s (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will end a two-day rally, after S&P cut credit ratings for lenders including Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Citigroup Inc. (C). The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) lost 0.7 percent as Bank of America and Citigroup both slumped 0.6 percent. Goldman Sachs decreased 0.2 percent. Morgan Stanley (MS), which was also downgraded, retreated 1.1 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped 0.2 percent. S&P 500 futures expiring in December declined 0.6 percent to 1,189.40 at 8:26 a.m. Tokyo time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 51 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,514. “Banks are in a difficult position,” Matt McCormick, a money manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl & Gaynor Inc., which oversees $4.1 billion, said in a telephone interview. “There are so many unknowns for the industry, including Europe. The reward is not worth the risk right now.”

European Stocks Climb as Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet on Debt Crisis (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks advanced for a third day as euro-area finance ministers met to discuss insuring a portion of bonds issued by debt-stricken countries and U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in November. BASF SE and K+S AG pulled a gauge of chemical makers higher, rising more than 2 percent. IG Group Holdings Plc rallied the most since 2010. Colruyt SA, Belgium’s biggest discount-food retailer, plunged to a four-year low after reporting worse-than-estimated fiscal first-half profit. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.8 percent to 231.68 at the close. The Stoxx 600 rallied 3.8 percent yesterday amid speculation the euro area’s policy makers are intensifying their efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis.

China Stocks Fall, Head for Monthly Drop as Export Slump May Hurt Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s stocks fell for the first time in three days, driving the benchmark index towards a monthly loss, on concern exports and industrial output will slump as the economy slows and European demand falters. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (600019) and Anhui Conch Cement Co., the biggest makers of steel and cement, slid after Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. forecast the export growth rate will be halved this month. Jiangxi Copper Co. and Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co. paced a decline for metal producers after Morgan Stanley said further gains for commodities may be limited next year. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. dropped 1 percent after BOC International cut its share-price estimate by 17 percent amid earnings concerns. “There’s a consensus view that economic growth will slow next year and companies related to investment will suffer,” said Dai Ming, fund manager at Shanghai Kingsun Investment Management & Consulting Co. “The key is whether the economy is poised for a soft landing as is expected by the market.”

Topix Declines First Time in Four Days After S&P Cuts Banks’ Ratings (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks fell, with the Topix index headed for its first drop in four days, after Standard & Poor’s cut credit ratings for U.S. lenders including Bank of America Corp. and a European official said the region’s bailout fund is falling short of its goal. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316), the Japan’s No. 2 bank by market value, fell 1.5 percent. Sony Corp., the country’s biggest exporter of consumer electronics, lost 3 percent. Nippon Electric Glass Co. sank 4 percent after industry leader Corning Inc. cut its earnings forecast. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (9107) and other shipping lines slid, ending a three-day streak of gains. The Topix lost 0.6 percent to 725.28 at the 11:30 a.m. trading break in Tokyo, with almost two stocks (TPX) falling for each that gained. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) dropped 0.8 percent to 8,406.56. The gauge has declined 6.5 percent this month, erasing October’s gains, as signs emerged that Europe’s debt crisis is spreading to major economies.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Tops Forecasts at Start of Holiday Season: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence snapped back more than forecast in November as Americans turned less pessimistic on the outlook for jobs and wages, one reason why spending has jumped at the start of the holiday season. The Conference Board’s index increased to 56 from a revised 40.9 reading in October, the biggest monthly gain since April 2003, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The gauge exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The improvement in sentiment may help sustain household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, after sales climbed on Nov. 25 and Nov. 28, so-called Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Another report showing home prices continue to drop raises the risk that, without a pickup in hiring, consumers will retreat in early 2012.

Fed’s Lockhart Is ‘Skeptical’ More Bond-Buying Will Help Stimulate Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said expanding securities purchases is unlikely to give a sufficient boost to U.S. growth, without ruling out the strategy or other easing options. “I am skeptical that further asset purchases will produce much gain in terms of increased economic activity,” Lockhart, who votes on monetary policy next year, said in a speech in Atlanta. “I don’t believe further bond purchasing by the Fed is a potent policy option given the set of circumstances we currently face.” Fed policy makers are discussing whether to increase record monetary stimulus through a third round of securities purchases or being more specific about how long interest rates will remain close to zero. Lockhart has supported the use of unconventional policy instruments in August and September to revive a recovery that has left the unemployment rate stuck near 9 percent or higher for more than 30 months.

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall More Than Forecast, Case-Shiller Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Residential real estate prices dropped more than forecast in the year ended September, showing the industry at the center of the 2008 financial crisis continues to struggle. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 3.6 percent in September from the same month in 2010 after decreasing 3.8 percent in the year ended August, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 3 percent decrease. Unemployment at 9 percent, tight lending standards and a looming supply of distressed properties that may drag down home values further will probably keep hurting housing demand into next year. Sliding prices have left some people with loans that exceed the value of their properties, preventing them from boosting spending on other goods and services.

Goldman Ends Bet on China Stocks as Growth Estimates Cut by UBS, Citigroup (Source: Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said clients should exit a bet that Hong Kong-listed companies in China will gain as UBS AG and Citigroup Inc. cut growth forecasts for the world’s second-biggest economy. “We are closing our recommended long position in Chinese equities” after the trade lost 5 percent, Goldman analysts including Noah Weisberger wrote in an e-mailed report dated yesterday. In a Nov. 6 report, the analysts favored shares in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. (HSCEI). Premier Wen Jiabao’s crackdown on property speculation is damping home sales and construction just as Europe’s soveriegn- debt crisis threatens exports. The central bank triggered speculation that monetary policy may be further loosened to spur growth by allowing reserve requirements for some rural credit cooperatives to fall this month.

S&P Rates China Banks Higher Than U.S. Rivals (Source: Bloomberg)
Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. (939) were upgraded by Standard & Poor’s after the ratings firm revised its criteria, giving the Chinese lenders higher grades than most of their largest U.S. rivals. Bank of China and Construction Bank were raised to A from A-, and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd.’s rating was maintained at A by S&P, according to a statement issued today. The changes reflect the “very high” likelihood of China’s government providing help for the lenders in the event of financial distress, S&P wrote in separate statements. Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. had their long-term credit ratings cut to A-, while UBS AG and Barclays Plc were downgraded to A and HSBC Holdings Plc to A+. The Chinese banks’ elevation underscores their turnaround since a decade-long overhaul of the state-run lenders that had cost the Asian nation $650 billion by 2008.

Japan Factory Output Rises 2.4% on Automakers (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s industrial production increased more than analysts expected in October, gains that may not be sustained as overseas demand cools. Factory output increased 2.4 percent from September, rebounding from a 3.3 percent drop, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for output to increase 1.1 percent. Manufacturers are contending with a yen near postwar highs against the dollar that has eroded profits and prompted Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) President Akio Toyoda to say this month that his company “will collapse” unless the currency weakens. Thailand’s worst flooding in almost 70 years has also caused parts shortages that may force companies to cut output.

South Korean Output Grows at the Slowest Pace Since August on Europe Woes (Source: Bloomberg)
South Korea’s industrial production rose in October at the slowest pace since August as Europe’s debt crisis and a global economic slowdown damped domestic and overseas demand. Output rose 6.2 percent from a year earlier after gaining a revised 6.9 percent in September, Statistics Korea said today. The median estimate of 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 5.4 percent rise. Production fell 0.7 percent last month from September, when it expanded by revised 1.2 percent. Finance Minister Bahk Jae Wan said sustaining growth will be the government’s policy priority next year as the economy shows signs of slowing due to Europe’s financial woes and global weakness. The Bank of Korea refrained from raising interest rates for a fifth month on Nov. 11, pausing its fight against inflation to support the nation’s expansion.
“We’re bombarded with bad news from outside everyday and many economists are rushing to cut their growth forecasts,” Oh Suk Tae, an economist at SC First Bank Korea Ltd. in Seoul, said before the release. “We expect a further slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter and the BOK may have to cut interest rates.”

ECB Fails to Attract Sufficient Bids to Mop Up Liquidity From Buying Bonds (Source: Bloomberg)
The European Central Bank failed to fully offset the extra liquidity created by its bond purchases for the first time in seven months, a sign of mounting tensions among euro-area banks. The Frankfurt-based ECB said today that 85 banks bid a total of 194.2 billion euros ($259 billion) for seven-day term deposits. It had aimed to drain 203.5 billion euros, the amount its bond purchases have created since the program began in May last year. It last fell short of its intended total on April 26. “It’s just another indication of how uncertain the situation is,” said Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “At the moment, banks are holding more cash than necessary. There’s a lot of caution.”

Euro-Region Economic Confidence Falls to Two-Year Low: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
European confidence in the economic outlook dropped more than economists forecast in November as the 17-nation euro region edged closer to a recession and the fiscal crisis started to hit larger countries. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area fell to 93.7 from 94.8 in October, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the lowest since November 2009. Economists forecast a drop to 93.9, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. Euro-area finance chiefs meeting in Brussels today are under increasing pressure to step up their crisis response as the two-year sovereign debt crisis spreads from the periphery to core countries, clouding growth prospects. Services and manufacturing contracted in November and the European Central Bank this month unexpectedly trimmed borrowing costs.

Euro Region’s Boost to Bailout Fund Falls Short of 1 Trillion-Euro Target (Source: Bloomberg)
Euro-area finance ministers approved enhancements to their bailout fund while backing off from setting a target for its firepower and seeking a greater role for the International Monetary Fund in fighting the debt crisis. The finance chiefs of the 17 nations using the euro agreed to work on boosting the resources of the IMF so it can “cooperate more closely” with the European Financial Stability Facility, Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters late yesterday in Brussels after leading the meeting. “It’s very important that the IMF globally will increase its resources either by raising its capital or by bilateral loans so that it can lend more money to euro-zone countries in need,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said in an interview with Bloomberg Television after the meeting. “If we open the IMF effort, that will be sufficient together with the leverage options in the EFSF.”

EFSF Gets Ministers’ Approval for Expansion (Source: Bloomberg)
Euro-area finance ministers approved enhancements to their bailout fund while backing off setting a target for how much firepower they plan to muster to stem a growing debt crisis. After a series of stop-gap accords failed to protect Italy and Spain from widening bond yield, the ministers met in Brussels under growing pressure from U.S. leaders and financial markets to find ways to boost the European Financial Stability Facility’s effectiveness. They agreed to create certificates that could guarantee up to 30 percent of new issues from troubled euro-area governments and to create investment vehicles that would boost the EFSF’s firepower to intervene in primary and secondary bond markets. “It’s impossible to give one number; it’s a process,” EFSF Chief Executive Officer Klaus Regling told a press conference in Brussels, backing off an earlier goal of 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion). “We will need money if countries make a request, and market conditions change over time.”

Hungary May Face More Rate Increases as Credit Downgrade Threatens Forint (Source: Bloomberg)
Hungarian interest rates may rise further from the European Union’s highest level as policy makers seek to protect the forint from the effects of the country’s debt being downgraded to junk, the central bank said. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank is ready to increase the two-week deposit rate after boosting it to 6.5 percent from 6 percent yesterday, central bank President Andras Simor told reporters in Budapest yesterday. Forward-rate agreements rose, indicating investor expectations for higher borrowing costs. The first rate increase since January failed to boost the forint, which fell to its weakest ever against the euro this month and helped push the government to seek international aid. Hungary losing its investment grade at Moody’s Investors Service tipped the scale for policy makers, who had balanced shielding the currency against slowing economic growth.

FOREX-Euro consolidates gains; yen edges lower
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The euro edged up against the dollar on Tuesday, consolidating the gains made the previous day on hopes that European officials will finally make some progress in tackling their debt crisis this week.
"We remain cautious as the market remains vulnerable to headline risk ahead, with the Eurogroup/Ecofin meetings taking place over the next two days," BNP Paribas analysts said.

20111130 1148 Global Commodities Related News.

Climate Summit In Africa Looks At Farmers' Woes (Source: CME)
Subsistence farmers in Africa, victims of changing weather patterns, are caught in a global debate over a special climate fund for which few nations want to pay. Throughout the continent, farming groups are trying to adapt to seasons that are more unpredictable than ever. Frequent droughts or rainy seasons that last too long have ravaged crops. Scientists forecast even worse weather in Africa over the next 50 years. These are some of the problems the United Nations' Green Climate Fund was supposed to address. On Monday, representatives of the 192 countries plus the European Union, parties to the U.N.'s climate body, gathered in Durban, South Africa, at a U.N.-sponsored talk to try -- among other things -- to elicit $100 billion in pledges. Officials say the bulk of this amount will go to the Green Climate Fund. Negotiations are just beginning, but already there are signs of tension between industrialized nations and emerging countries.
More contentious is who will foot the bill. China and developing countries want the industrialized nations to pay for the fund, which would help poorer countries pay for programs, policies and other actions that would help them adapt to climate change and mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. The U.S. and Europe are balking. The U.N. is hoping host South Africa can coax voluntary contributions from participants. The so-called COP17 climate talks, which end Dec. 9, are yet another sign of floundering efforts to bring countries together on issues related to global warming, and to help those in the poorest nations hit hardest by changes in weather patterns. The Kyoto Protocol, which is aimed at getting signatory countries to reduce carbon emissions, expires next year, and no political breakthroughs are expected at the meetings in South Africa.
The U.S. reiterated on Monday that it wants developed economies to face the same demands to reduce carbon emissions as major emerging nations such as China do, a point that could hinder major advances here. Farmers in Africa are likely to pay a steep price for the diplomatic discord. The COP17 meeting is taking place on a continent battling one of its worst droughts and famines in decades. Some observers say new foreign investment coming into land for food cultivation -- and a number of countries adopting subsidies and other pro-farmer policies -- has improved the outlook for Africa's domestic food production. Agricultural output in Africa rose 3.5% in 2008, beating the 2% population growth, according to the latest figures from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Still, Africa produces only about a quarter of the grain it needs and yet has the world's fastest-growing population.
The number of people on the continent is expected to hit two billion by 2050, surpassing both China and India, according to U.N. figures. The population growth, coupled with climate change, raises the prospect of more food shortages and conflict stemming from them. Atiang Okwi, who grows cassava, a staple root vegetable, in eastern Uganda, said she is noticing a change in traditional seasons. This year, her crop rotted in soil that was hit by too much rain, and she worries next year will be too dry. "This weather system is confused," Ms. Okwi said.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures bounced, fueled by strength in external financial markets, with traders covering short positions amid ideas the market was oversold. Government reports released Monday showed the huge amount of fund selling that has happened over the past week, leading to short covering in the absence of pressure from external financial markets, analysts say. Weakness in the US dollar and perceptions prices have dipped enough to spur demand, attracted buyers, analysts add. CBOT March corn ended up 7c at $6.05 1/2/bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures pushed higher, leading the grain complex, with weakness in dollar an underpinning feature attracting buyers. Wheat led the gains with a nearly 4% jump, as traders took note of CFTC data yesterday afternoon that hedge-fund related positions at the biggest net short since possibly Jan'06, says Mike Zuzolo, president Global Commodity Analytics. The short positions sparked views the market was oversold, particularly with a weaker dollar and crude oil and equities rising. CBOT March wheat ended up 23c at $6.16/bushel, March KCBT wheat climbed 17 1/2c to $6.70, and March MGEX wheat finished up 18c to $8.33 1/2.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures close higher as weakness in the US dollar provided broad support on grain markets. Rice bounced with corn, soybeans and wheat. Further price support was derived from end-of-month profit-taking by traders, following sharp declines last week, analysts say. CBOT Nov Jan end up 22 1/2c to $14.37 per hundredweight.

US wheat dips on improved crop rating; corn steady
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat edged lower, giving up some of the gains made in the previous session as improved crop condition and stiff competition for U.S. wheat weighed on the market.
"Slow demand for U.S. wheat continues to remain a fundamental drag on prices," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a daily note.

S.Africa's 2010/11 final maize crop seen at 10.3 mln T
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 29 (Reuters) - South Africa's May 2010-April 2011 maize harvest is likely to be 10.3 million tonnes, compared with 12.815 million tonnes reaped in the previous season, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
The forecasts of six trading houses ranged between 10 million tonnes and 10.608 million tonnes.

US wheat dips on improved crop rating; corn steady
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat edged lower, giving up some of the gains made in the previous session as improved crop condition and stiff competition for U.S. wheat weighed on the market.
"Slow demand for U.S. wheat continues to remain a fundamental drag on prices," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a daily note.

Global natural rubber output seen up 3.6 pct in 2012-ANRPC
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Global natural rubber output could rise 3.6 percent to 10.388 million tonnes in 2012, but growth is expected to be slower than in the previous year as falling prices affect yield, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said on Tuesday.
The ANRPC, whose members account for 92 percent of global rubber output and exports, pegged output at 10.023 million tonnes in 2011, up 6.6 percent from 9.490 million tonnes in 2010.

Vietnam picks 35-40 pct of 2011/12 coffee crop-trade
HANOI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Between 35 and 40 percent of Vietnam's 2011/2012 coffee crop has  been harvested in major growing areas but farmers are slowing down sales and waiting for prices to rise further, traders said on Tuesday, after gains in London robusta futures overnight.
"The harvest is progressing well with good quality of beans, but farmers are not rushing to sell dry beans, waiting for prices to grow further," said an exporter in Buon Ma Thuot, the capital of Daklak, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing province.

Brazil on-year coffee crop smaller in '12-exporter
BRASILIA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Top coffee grower Brazil will see its output dip in the 2012 harvest compared with the last 'on-year' crop in 2010, due to a mixture of harsh weather and pruning of trees, exporter Terra Forte estimated on Monday.
The exporter estimated the next harvest, the 2012/13 crop, would turn out 52.5 million 60-kg bags of coffee, down from the 55.4 million bags it estimated were produced in 2010/11.

Rains aid Argentine soy ahead of a cool, sunny week
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Rain storms over the weekend helped build ample soil moisture in Argentina's main farming region, ahead of sunny and in some places cold weather during the days ahead, local meteorologists forecast Monday.
Some isolated pockets of frost may form in the southern part of key producing province Buenos Aires and forecasters warn of La Nina-related dryness next month.

Colombia coffee growers see lower output in Nov/Dec
BOGOTA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee growers said on Monday they expect production to be lower than normal in November and December due to heavy rains and the roya fungus, rounding out months of output decline this year.
The coffee federation of the world's top producer of high-quality Arabia beans expects full-year 2011 output to come in below historical averages for a third year running due to bad weather, the roya fungus and a tree renovation program.

ICE cocoa slips to 2-1/2 year low, sugar eases
ICE cocoa futures fell to a fresh two-and-a-half year low, while sugar also dipped and coffee was steady, with all eyes on euro zone talks as investors hoped for more concrete action to tackle the crisis.
ICE cocoa prices slipped in early trade, as ample supplies combined with the bearish investor sentiment to weigh on prices.

Ukraine produces 2.07 million T sugar so far 2011
KIEV, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Ukrainian sugar refineries produced about 2.07 million tonnes of white sugar from sugar beet as of Nov. 28 or 42 percent more than at the same date in 2010, Ukraine's sugar union Ukrtsukor was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Ukraine's Economicheskiye Izvestia daily quoted Ukrtsukor data as showing that refineries had received about 17 million tonnes of sugar beet and processed 15.6 million tonnes.

Thailand sees 2011/12 sugar output at 9.9 mln tonnes
BANGKOK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's second biggest sugar exporter, has started its 2011/12 crushing season and is forecast to have a record 99 million tonnes of cane this year, a senior official said on Tuesday.
"Crushing has started, since Nov. 15, and we expect to have 99 million tonnes of cane or roughly 9.9 million tonnes of sugar this year as the floods caused minimal damage to the crop," Prasert Tapaneeyangkul, secretary-general of the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB), told Reuters.

Global natural rubber output seen up 3.6 pct in 2012-ANRPC
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Global natural rubber output could rise 3.6 percent to 10.388 million tonnes in 2012, but growth is expected to be slower than this year as falling prices affect yield, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said on Tuesday.
The ANRPC, whose members account for 92 percent of global rubber output and exports, pegged output at 10.023 million tonnes in 2011, up 6.6 percent from 9.490 million tonnes in 2010.

Vietnam picks 35-40 pct of 2011/12 coffee crop-trade
HANOI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Between 35 and 40 percent of Vietnam's 2011/2012 coffee crop has  been harvested in major growing areas but farmers are slowing down sales and waiting for prices to rise further, traders said on Tuesday, after gains in London robusta futures overnight.
"The harvest is progressing well with good quality of beans, but farmers are not rushing to sell dry beans, waiting for prices to grow further," said an exporter in Buon Ma Thuot, the capital of Daklak, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing province.

Brazil on-year coffee crop smaller in '12-exporter
BRASILIA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Top coffee grower Brazil will see its output dip in the 2012 harvest compared with the last 'on-year' crop in 2010, due to a mixture of harsh weather and pruning of trees, exporter Terra Forte estimated on Monday.
The exporter estimated the next harvest, the 2012/13 crop, would turn out 52.5 million 60-kg bags of coffee, down from the 55.4 million bags it estimated were produced in 2010/11.

Colombia coffee growers see lower output in Nov/Dec
BOGOTA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee growers said on Monday they expect production to be lower than normal in November and December due to heavy rains and the roya fungus, rounding out months of output decline this year.
The coffee federation of the world's top producer of high-quality Arabia beans expects full-year 2011 output to come in below historical averages for a third year running due to bad weather, the roya fungus and a tree renovation program.

Brazil rains keep up, nurture young coffee crop
BRASILIA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Moderate rains should fall over Brazil's southeastern coffee belt for most of the week, forecaster Somar said on Monday, providing a welcome top-up of moisture as the 2012 crop takes hold on the trees.
Rains have improved in late November after a worryingly dry start. Some key parts of top coffee state Minas Gerais had only received half the average rainfall due for the entire month by Sunday 27 Nov, with 90 millimeters versus 180.

Brazil CS sugar output down as season nears end
SAO PAULO, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Sugar output in Brazil's center-south in the first half of November fell 13.8 percent from a year ago as more mills finished crushing the 2011/12 cane crop, industry association Unica said on Monday.
Sugar production in the period totaled 1.26 million tonnes, compared with 1.46 million tonnes a year earlier.

Thailand sees 2011/12 sugar output at 9.9 mln tonnes
BANGKOK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's second biggest sugar exporter, has started its 2011/12 crushing season and is forecast to produce a record 9.9 million tonnes of the sweetener this year, a senior official said on Tuesday.
"Crushing has started, since Nov. 15, and we expect to have 99 million tonnes of cane or roughly 9.9 million tonnes of sugar this year as the floods caused minimal damage to the crop," Prasert Tapaneeyangkul, secretary-general of the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB), told Reuters.

POLL-U.S. crude stocks seen up as imports rebound
Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week after three straight weeks of drawdowns, as imports rebounded, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
Domestic crude stockpiles were forecast up 1 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 25, the poll of five analysts showed.

Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain as U.S. Confidence Counters Crude Supply (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the highest close in almost two weeks and headed for a second monthly gain as optimism about the U.S. economy countered signs of rising stockpiles in the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures were little changed after sliding as much as 0.5 percent. Prices advanced for a third day yesterday after U.S. consumer confidence climbed the most in more than eight years and Iranian protesters vandalized the British Embassy’s compound in Tehran, stoking speculation that tension in the Middle East may escalate and threaten crude supplies. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said oil stockpiles climbed by 3.44 million barrels last week. “We’ve got profit-taking today off the rally driven by the attack on the U.K. embassy,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “That provided support on top of the good economic data out of the U.S. The API data poured some cold water on that bullish news.”

METALS-Copper slips after steep gains; euro zone meet eyed
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - London copper pulled back on Tuesday, after posting its biggest single-day gain in a month in the previous session, as investors weighed whether euro zone policymakers can actually come up with solid measures to resolve a widening sovereign debt crisis.
"There was some optimism in markets yesterday but Europe's intractable problems are clearly difficult to combat and there are no quick fixes in sight," said Ong Yi Ling, analyst at Phillip Futures.

PRECIOUS-Gold steady ahead of EU ministers meeting
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Spot gold held steady above $1,700 per ounce on Tuesday, as investors watch a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later in the day in hopes that European policymakers will take decisive steps to tackle the region's debt crisis.
"I wouldn't be surprised that we don't see much strength towards the end of the year, but into 2012 we should see aggressive monetary policy being reflected in prices of gold," Friesen added.

Gold Shares Cheapest Since 2002 Are ’Coiled Spring’ for Rally: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold mining stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least nine years even as the industry’s profits are estimated to almost double this year and bullion trades close to its historic high. The benchmark NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) that includes Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. ended last week at 17 times earnings, the lowest since at least November 2002 and below a five-year average of 37 times. Investors sold equities across the board as Europe’s debt crisis soured the corporate profit outlook, and they’re ignoring analyst projections for bullion and gold producers. The gold index’s 16 members will increase combined per-share earnings 94 percent this year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

20111130 1147 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export down 8.8% to 1,532,978 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Nov 2011.
SGS CPO export down 8.7% to 1,537,556 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Nov 2011.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures end higher, continuing to recover from prior losses on technical buying and supportive external market influences. Fresh soybean-related fundamental news was lacking, keeping traders focused on external financial markets for leadership. Weakness in the US dollar, crude oil spiking to $100/bbl and hopes for progress in EU debt crisis enabled futures to push higher, analysts say. Futures were seen as oversold following last week's tumble, but with investors taking short positions in the market and export demand uncertain, advances were limited, analysts add. CBOT Jan soy ended up 4c at $11.25/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures end mixed, with soyoil climbing on the supportive influence of higher soybeans and crude oil futures, analysts say. Soymeal drifted lower, unable to hold initial gains, as traders bought soyoil and sold meal on spreads. CBOT Jan soyoil ended up 0.28c at 49.43c/lb, and Jan soymeal dropped $1.20 to $288.00/short ton.

Argentina 2011-12 Soy Production Seen At 52-53MT - Ministry.  (Source: CME)
Argentina's farmers will grow between 52 million and 53 million metric tons of soybeans during the 2011-12 season, the second-largest crop on record, the agriculture ministry said. Argentina is the world's No. 3 soybean exporter behind Brazil and the U.S. and leads global soymeal and soyoil shipments. The ministry also raised its forecast for 2011-12 wheat production to 13.5 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 12 million tons and pegged corn production at a record 30 million tons.
Argentina is the world's second largest corn exporter and the 2011-12 crop is expected to smash the previous production record of 22.5 million tons. Earlier, Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez said that the country would clear for export 2.7 million tons of wheat remaining from the 2010-11 crop. When added to the 8.4 million tons already approved, total wheat exports from the 2010-11 wheat crop will come to 11.1 million tons, Dominguez said. In addition, the government has already freed up 3 million tons of 2011-12 wheat for export. So far, farmers have harvested about a fifth of the 2011-12 wheat crop. Argentina is a leading global wheat exporter, with most shipments going to neighboring Brazil. The government tightly regulates corn and wheat exports to keep local food prices low. It issues export permits only when domestic supplies, as calculated by the government, have been set aside.
Farmers complain bitterly that the current system of issuing export permits in a handful of tranches throughout the year stifles competition between exporters and local buyers, forcing farmers to sell their grains at a steep discount.

Soybean oil primed for a year-end boost: Gavin Maguire
 -- Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. To get his real-time views on the market, please join the Global Ags Forum. --
CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - While most agriculture markets tend to wind down during the post-Thanksgiving period as traders scale back positions ahead of the year end, there are usually a few enticing trading opportunities that tend to emerge over the month of December to keep things interesting until the New Year.
This year's late bloomer looks set to be soybean oil, whose recent price drop to one-year lows triggered oversold signals on the charts just as low domestic stock levels and a notable price underperformance relative to palm oil look set to help fuel this market's traditional year-end price rally.

Palm oil slips on demand outlook, industry meeting eyed
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on concerns of slower demand, although prospects of erratic weather hurting production limited losses.
"There is no real impetus for the market to move higher. There are concerns over the demand trend with palm oil drastically reducing its discount to Argentine soyoil," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

Turkey 2010 soybean imports at 1.35 mln tonnes-attache
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Turkey:
"MY 2010 imports of soybean reached 1.35 million tonnes, higher than early season estimates due to higher utilization in poultry and dairy industries. Imports from US remained about 419,000 tonnes, about 50 percent of the previous year, mainly due to biotech restrictions and buyers postponing purchases to the second half of the marketing year because of large carryover that benefited South American sources.

Rains aid Argentine soy ahead of a cool, sunny week
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Rain storms over the weekend helped build ample soil moisture in Argentina's main farming region, ahead of sunny and in some places cold weather during the days ahead, local meteorologists forecast Monday.
Some isolated pockets of frost may form in the southern part of key producing province Buenos Aires and forecasters warn of La Nina-related dryness next month.

Indonesia 2012 palm output seen flat -Astra Agro
JAKARTA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Palm oil output in the world's top producer Indonesia will be little changed next year as weather fluctuations disrupt production, while higher demand will boost prices, an official at plantation giant PT Astra Agro Lestari said.
Indonesia is forecast to produce about 23 million tonnes of palm oil in 2011, but extreme weather will limit gains next year, Joko Supriyono, a director at one of Indonesia's largest listed plantation firms told Reuters on Monday. Last year, Indonesia produced around 21.6 million tonnes of palm oil.