ITS CPO export
up 37.1% to 697,804 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Mar 2012.
Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures ended lower, stabilizing after a three-day rally. Higher prices have been buoyed by expectations of Chinese buying, but when fresh sales announced Tuesday were lower than expected, buyers had little incentive to extend advances, analysts say. However, traders said the mild correction didn't change the overall makeup of the market, as many analysts still feel the USDA is underestimating US corn demand and overestimating US corn supplies. CBOT May corn ended down 3 1/4c at $6.58 3/4/bushel.
Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures end mostly lower, pressured by lower corn prices. "The corn market wasn't higher, so wheat didn't have support today," says Brian Grete at Pro Farmer. Wheat and corn are linked as both can be used as animal feed. Concerns about large world wheat supplies also weighed today, as did expectations for warm and wet US weather that is favorable for the winter-wheat crop. CBOT May wheat falls 5 1/4c to $6.43 3/4 a bushel while the March contract expires, closing up 1/4c at $6.51 3/4 on low volume. KCBT May wheat declines 6 1/2c to $6.81 and MGEX May drops 4 1/2c to $8.06 1/2.
Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures fall sharply, getting toward the bottom of recent trading ranges as the commodity continues to draw pressure from a lack of US export demand. Technical selling emerged today, accelerating declines once futures pierced the week's lows. "Demand remains a problem with export sales only showing a moderate pace and as domestic demand is said to be very slow," says Jack Scoville at Price Futures . CBOT May rice slides 2.9% to $13.91 1/2 per hundredweight.
U.S. soybean extends gains; wheat, corn rise
NEW DELHI, March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures for May extended gains after rallying more than 1 percent a day earlier due to mounting concerns over tight supplies from drought-hit South America.
"Production estimates have been lowered again by a number of forecasters, including the USDA and that is the reason behind the rise in soybeans," said Malcolm Bartholomaeus, editor of ProFarmer, a Perth-based farm advisory.
Philippines' NFA to import rice this year as buffer
MANILA, March 14 (Reuters) - The Philippines is cutting rice imports for the private sector this year to 380,000 tonnes because of expected good crops but may consider more government imports to cover its planned 500,000-tonne purchases, farm officials said on Wednesday.
The agriculture agency had previously said the entire 500,000 tonnes approved for import for 2012 year would be brought in by the private sector.
China corn imports seen at 4 mln T in 2011/12 -state-run company official
SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - China's corn imports are expected to more than double in the 2011/12 year to 4 million tonnes from 1.5 million a year earlier, an official of a state-run company said on Wednesday.
Recent rains in the country's northeastern corn belt have improved soil moisture ahead of plantings, promising an improved outlook for the crop, the official told Reuters.
Argentina unlikely to sell large corn volumes to China -trader
SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Argentina is unlikely to sell large volumes of corn to China this year, despite a recent deal between the two countries on trading the grain, due to a lower-than-expected output, an Argentine trader said on Wednesday.
A long dry spell this year has raised questions about how much corn would be available for export from Argentina, the No. 2 global supplier after the United States. Supply concerns have pushed Chicago Board of Trade benchmark corn prices to their highest since January this week.
UK wheat exports running behind last season
LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - UK wheat exports slowed during January despite the shipment of a cargo to the United States, customs data showed on Tuesday.
Shipments during January totalled 218,919 tonnes, down from 324,496 tonnes in December and a season high of 445,172 tonnes in November, the figures showed.
Cumulative shipments for the 2011/12 season, which started on July 1, 2011, were 1.80 million tonnes, down about 15 percent from 2.12 million in the same period a year earlier.
Ukraine AgMin cuts wheat harvest outlook to 14 mln T
KIEV, March 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry has cut its 2012 wheat harvest forecast to 14 million tonnes from 16 million tonnes, Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Tuesday, after winter plantings suffered from drought and frost.
"We expect to reach a harvest of 14 million tonnes of wheat," Prysyazhnyuk said.
China Local Corn Prices High Enough To Make Imports Viable (Source: CME)
China's corn import potential is intact despite a bumper crop, as local prices may consolidate at high levels, an official from a state-run Chinese concern said. China's corn imports in the marketing year that started Oct. 1 will likely be around 4 million tons, more than double the 2010-11 total, said the official. Imports in 2012-13 will likely be steady on year, even with a planned acreage expansion, he said on the sidelines of a grain conference here. The premium of domestic corn prices over delivered U.S. corn is favorable for imports, he said. China's corn area expanded by around 3% to 33.4 million hectares last year due to a shift away from soybeans and rice, and there is room for another 2% increase this year, he said. The corn belt in northeastern China received less snowfall this winter, but recent showers have improved soil moisture, setting the stage for another bumper crop, he said.
China's corn output this year is estimated around 191 million tons against consumption around 188 million tons, he said. Although supply and demand are balanced, prices have increased in line with input costs and domestic inflation, he said, adding that local corn prices are unlikely to fall soon and may consolidate around current levels. The market is abuzz with speculation that Chinese buyers may have purchased U.S. corn this month to build stocks and cut costs amid high local prices. The official didn't confirm any recent purchases. Chicago-based analyst Dan Basse said that as of early March, corn prices in Guangzhou city in southern China and Shandong province and Dalian city in the north, were equivalent to around $9.92, $9.86 and $9.68 a bushel, respectively, while U.S. Gulf Coast prices were around $7.20 a bushel. At these levels, at least some areas can import U.S. corn and have positive margins, even after accounting for taxes and freight, said Basse, president of consultancy AgResource Co.
He projected China's corn imports in 2011-12 and 2012-13 at 5 million and 6 million-8 million tons, respectively. Last month, China signed an agreement with Argentina to set up a protocol for imports of Argentinean corn, if needed. It is unlikely that much corn will be traded this year, said Freddy Pranteda, a director with Cosur SA, a Buenos Aires-based commodity brokerage.
Indonesia Flour Imports Fall On Cheap Australia Wheat (Source: CME)
Indonesia's flour imports have slowed by over 50% in the last five months due to availability of cheaper Australian wheat, trading and milling executives said. Until early October, an average of 50,000 metric tons of wheat flour were imported every month, but volumes have declined by more than half since then, they said. Flour imports from Turkey on a delivered basis of around $350 a ton translate into a local sale price of around IDR100,000 per 25-kilogram bag. Cheaper grades of local flour, processed by Indonesian mills using imported wheat, are available at IDR98,000-IDR99,000 per 25 kg, down from IDR110,000-IDR120,000 in October-November. The onset of a bumper wheat harvest in Australia in October dragged down prices and cargoes were imported well below $300/ton, a Jakarta-based importer said on the sidelines of a grain conference.
Turkish flour import prices have risen by up to $30/ton, cost and freight, Indonesian ports, during the period due to higher Black Sea wheat prices as the region entered its lean season, he added. Turkey exports flour made from wheat imported mostly from the Black Sea region. Indonesia's local milling capacity has also expanded, leading to higher direct imports of wheat instead of flour. Since 2009, various companies have been expanding daily milling capacity. Most of it is operational and the rest will be completed gradually by 2014. This will increase Indonesia's annual milling capacity by 3 million tons to around 10 million tons, although actual utilization is much lower. Wheat milling by Bhogasari Flour Mills, one of Asia's largest, is growing at 6%-7% annually, a company executive said. Inconsistency in the quality of imported flour has also kept purchases under control, he added.
Indonesia is one of the top importers of wheat and wheat flour. Flour imports in 2011 were between 500,000 and 600,000 tons, traders said.
France AgriMer: 2011-2012 Soft Wheat Harvest Seen At 33.9M Tons (Source: CME)
French soft wheat production is likely to fall to 33.9 million metric tons in the 2011-2012 season, from 35.7 million tons in the same period a year earlier, France Agrimer, said. The government agency marginally lowered its estimate for 2011-2012 from a forecast of 34 million metric tons made last month. France Agrimer forecasts soft wheat exports to non-European Union countries are expected to fall to 8.8 million tons, from 12.9 million tons in 2010-2011, and exports to European Union countries are seen almost stable at 6.7 million tons. The agency said it expects corn production in 2011-2012 will be 15.5 million tons. It forecast hard wheat output will be 2.0 million tons and barley output will be 8.8 million tons.
UK's Agriculture Sector To See Supply Chain 'Paradigm Shift' -NFU (Source: CME)
The U.K.'s agriculture sector is set to undergo a "paradigm shift" in industry relationships which moves towards a more collaborative approach, the National Farmers' Union said, with longer-term contracts, less tendering, and better planning. "There will be a move away from a very short-termist approach to supply chain practice to a more collaborative, longer-term model which will help farmers, retailers and manufacturers to overcome some of the key challenges they are facing," said Tom Hind, the NFU's director of corporate affairs. "More dedicated, structured relationships allow for greater innovation to be fostered," he told the Outlook for Agriculture 2012 conference. There will likely be more consolidation at all levels of the supply chain, he said, and in manufacturing that will manifest itself in companies looking to offer a 'one stop shop' in key categories.
Retailers are also increasingly likely to move down the supply chain to invest in manufacturing, particularly with own-label products, Hind said, citing Safeway Inc. and Kroger Co. as examples in the U.S., and Wm Morrison Supermarkets PLC in the U.K. Such companies are also likely to target expansion into more global markets, Hind said, with 12 major international retailers already responsible for about 40% of global grocery sales. "It strikes me that the level will probably increase as some of our major retailers recognize their market here is not growing an awful lot and will look to expand overseas," he said.
Syria Forced To Up 2011-12 Cereal Imports By 1 Million Tons -FAO (Source: CME)
Civil unrest for the past 12 months means that Syria will be forced to import a total of 4 million metric tons of cereals in the 2011-12 crop year, 1 million tons more than a year earlier, as fears of food security for the country rise, warned the United Nations food body. The outlook for the country's 2012 winter cereal crops, now at the vegetative stage, also remains uncertain given the disruptions to agricultural activities and limited access to inputs such as fertilizer and seeds, said the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization. Syria's cereal production last year, estimated at around 4.2 million tons, fell 10% below the previous five years' average, because of late and erratic rainfall that impacted the cultivation of the crops, especially in the main crop-producing areas of Al Hasakah and Al Raqqah in the North and North-east, said the FAO. In some areas of Syria, it is reported that civil insecurity has also prevented farmers from accessing their farms during the harvest.
Meanwhile, sanctions and a strong depreciation of Syria's currency have both had a negative impact on the country's capacity to import goods, including food commodities, said the FAO, a situation not helped by recent tax rises. "The imposition of an additional 30% tax by Syria on goods imported from Turkey is expected to put further pressure on domestic prices and hence reduce access to food for poorer households," warned the FAO. According to the U.N.'s World Food Program, 1.4 million people have become food insecure especially in the areas of Homs, Hama, Damascus, Daraa and Idleb. "An estimated 300,000 small farmers and herders in north-eastern provinces, who have already suffered four consecutive seasons of drought, are also affected by the loss of opportunities from seasonal labor migration to the south and east," said the FAO. Additionally, the economic downturn is expected to curb the Syrian government's ability to support subsidy schemes on producer and consumer levels.
Mexican Bank Credit For Underproduced Crops Seen Rising (Source: CME)
Mexican agriculture officials expect banks to increase their loans this year to producers of crops that don't yet meet domestic demand, such as cocoa, rubber and robusta coffee. The increased credit is a result of an Agriculture Ministry program called "Tropico Humedo," which provides subsidies and credit for the production of certain crops in southern and southwestern Mexico with high unrealized potential. Cocoa-bean production, for example, has a potential to reach 1.4 million tons in Mexico, but output is currently about 28,000 tons, according to ministry officials. Mexico could also produce up to 1.7 million tons of rubber, but produces only 29,000 tons. Support from the Tropico Humedo program has inspired private sector banks such as Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) and Banco Santander SA (STD) to lend to producers, officials said.
This year, credit for all of the largely imported crops in the program, which also includes vanilla and pepper corns, is expected to rise 46% compared with 2011, to 1.5 billion pesos ($118.6 million). That includes loans from rural development banks and private banks. The increase in bank credit will compensate for a MXN450 million decrease in government subsidies and loans, with the Agriculture Ministry expecting to inject MXN500 million into the Tropico Humedo program this year. Pedro Ernesto Del Castillo, program coordinator for Tropico Humedo, called the upward trend in bank credit to these sectors "irreversible" and said it has already increased 32% since the beginning of the program in 2009. Private banks almost never gave loans to producers of rubber trees before the program was launched, said Ignacio Miguel Oliver Morales, regional subdirector of the rural development fund FIRA. But last year, about half of the MXN32 million invested in the rubber-producing sector was channeled through banks.
"It gives you an idea how much banks have started to gain confidence in these industries," he said. The area planted with rubber trees is expected to rise to 37,278 hectares this year, compared with 29,840 hectares last year.
Soybeans Climb to Six-Month High on Chinese Demand; Corn Slides (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybean futures rose to a six-month high on signs of increasing demand from China and limited supplies from the U.S., where farmers may shift more land to growing corn and wheat. Corn prices fell. The U.S. inspected 15.07 million bushels of soybeans for export to China in the week ended March 8, almost seven times more than the same week last year, the government said March 12. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, which will update acreage estimates on March 30, said last month that soybean planting may be unchanged this year, while farmers boost corn seeding by 2.3 percent and wheat by 6.6 percent. “Demand has been relatively good coming out of China, and it looks like beans will get cheated on the acres this year,” Frank J. Cholly, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Corn right now is still a more profitable crop.”
Soybean futures for May delivery climbed 0.1 percent to settle at $13.5025 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $13.6075, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 16. Futures have jumped 12 percent this year as dry weather threatened crops in South America.
Cocoa Rally Fading as African Rains Erase Shortage: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Rain across parched cocoa plantations in West Africa, which supplies 69 percent of the world’s beans, is leading analysts to pare forecasts for shortages, threatening the biggest rally in a year. Global output should about match demand in the crop year ending in September, compared with the 94,000-metric-ton deficit seen last month, according to estimates by Marex Spectron Group, which trades the beans in New York and London. Prices may drop 14 percent to $2,000 a ton by July, according to Rabobank International and Lome, Togo-based Ecobank Transnational Inc., which financed $227 million of cocoa and coffee trading in 2011.
Prices rose as much as 21 percent in the past two months as dry winds blowing from the Sahara toward the Atlantic battered West African plantations before a mid-crop harvest that starts next month. Farmers have struggled to keep up with a 38 percent expansion in the chocolate market since 2006, which London-based Euromonitor International Ltd. values at $105 billion. Cocoa output rose 15 percent to 3.96 million tons since 2006-07, according to the International Cocoa Organization. “Recent rains in West Africa have been plentiful, particularly in Ghana, and this is positive for the development of the mid-crop and the new crop,” said Eric Sivry, the London- based head of Marex Spectron’s agriculture options brokerage. “Many analysts have been caught by surprise.”
China Feb cotton imports rise 234 pct on yr-industry website
BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - China's cotton imports in February were at 616,000 tonnes, surging 234 percent from the same period last year, an industry website showed on Tuesday.
Imports last month rose 89 percent month on month, said the report on a website operated by the China National Cotton Reserves Corp
Ivory Coast cocoa mid crop seen below 5-year average
LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's 2011/12 mid crop output will fall slightly below the average production over the past five years due to dry weather, which is also likely to harm quality, international exporters said on Monday.
The average forecast, based on four exporters' estimates, pegged the April-September mid crop at around 323,000 tonnes, down sharply from last year's bumper 471,735 tonnes, when ideal weather boosted output.
Vietnam revises up Feb coffee exports at 202,000 T
HANOI, March 12 (Reuters) - Vietnam exported 202,000 tonnes, or 3.37 million bags, of coffee last month, up 40.3 percent from a year earlier, Vietnam Customs said, revising up an earlier government estimate of 180,000 tonnes.
But the actual loading volume in January-February fell 12.6 percent from the same period last year to nearly 313,700 tonnes, the customs department run by the Finance Ministry said in a report seen by Reuters on Monday.
India bans fresh cotton exports - for now
NEW DELHI, March 12 (Reuters) - India will now ban fresh cotton exports and allow only quantities already registered but not shipped, its trade secretary said on Monday, as the world's No.2 producer continued to flip-flop with its trade policy, fuelling market uncertainty.
The trade minister said on Sunday the government would lift a surprise ban on cotton exports imposed on March 5, after influential Farm Minister Sharad Pawar, a coalition ally, opposed the move and asked Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to revoke the ban.
Oil Trades Near 1-Week Low on U.S. Supplies, Saudi Pledge (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest price in more than a week in New York as investors bet that supply is ample after U.S. crude stockpiles rose and Saudi Arabia pledged to make up for any shortage in shipments from Iran. Futures were little changed after falling 1.2 percent yesterday. Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate oil, climbed to the highest level in nine months, according to the Energy Department. Saudi Arabia will make up any “perceived or real” shortfall, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in Kuwait. Prices have advanced this year as the U.S. and Europe tighten sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. “The market has been trapped between $105 and $108 a barrel for a while now,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty in Sydney. “We’re looking for the trigger to push us out of that range and that inventory figure does speak to the potential for a drop.”
Crude for April delivery was at $105.61 a barrel, up 18 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:43 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday dropped $1.28 to $105.43 a barrel, the lowest close since March 6. Prices are 6.9 percent higher this year.
POLL-U.S. crude stocks seen higher on imports
March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles were forecast to have risen for the fourth straight time last week on higher imports, an extended Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.
On average, crude stocks were projected up 1.7 million barrels in the week to March 9, with 10 analysts polled predicting an increase and one, Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics LLC, calling for a draw.
S.Africa plans to cut Iran oil imports
Kuwait, March 13 (Reuters) - South Africa hopes to have a plan by the end of May for replacing Iranian crude that currently makes up a quarter of its crude imports, the country's energy minister told Reuters.
The United States has pressured many of Iran's biggest oil buyers in Asia to reduce their purchases in a Western push to starve Tehran of funds for its disputed nuclear programme.
Brent crude dips below $126 ahead of US oil data
SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Brent crude dipped below $126 as expectations for a build in U.S. crude inventories and a stronger dollar offset support from improving economic sentiment in the world's top oil consumer.
"The U.S. economy seems more buoyant, so that is keeping the market up," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. "What will bring oil prices off is if we get strong builds in inventories. Supply seems to be sufficient, with OPEC producing at high levels to make up for any shortfall."
Gold Seen Heading for 12th Annual Gain on Investor Hoarding (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold is poised for a 21 percent gain in 2012, extending its bull market to 12 consecutive years, as investors hoard record amounts and central banks expand reserves for the first time in a generation. Bullion may rise to $1,897 an ounce in New York by Dec. 31 from $1,566.80 at the end of 2011, based on the average of 14 respondents in a survey at the Bloomberg Link Precious Metals Conference yesterday in New York. The rally that began in 2001 is the longest since at least 1920 in London, including a 10 percent gain last year. Demand has strengthened as Europe seeks to contain its debt crisis, China’s economic expansion slows, and governments from the U.S. to the U.K. keep interest rates at all-time lows to shore up growth. Central banks have been net buyers for three straight years, the longest stretch since 1973, World Gold Council data show. Holdings (.GLDTONS) in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal reached a record 2,410.2 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“There are significant shifts going on in the world,” said Martin Murenbeeld, the 67-year-old chief economist at Toronto-based DundeeWealth Inc., which manages about $100 billion in the Dynamic Mutual Funds. “Gold has become an investment, an asset class, and over time, we are only going to be building it up. The central banks are holding gold because they are not sure if the euro will remain five years later.”
