20120912 1017 Global Markets Related News.

Asia FX By Cornelius Luca - Tue 11 Sep 2012 16:55:21 CT (Source:CME/www.lucafxta.com)
The appetite for risk rose on Tuesday after Germany's Constitutional Court said that it would not postpone its long-awaited ruling on the legality of the Eurozone's bailout fund. The foreign currencies advanced across the board after most of the European and commodity currencies slipped on Monday. This strength should persist on Wednesday as well, as German politicians will play ball. The US stock markets advanced. Gold and oil closed slightly higher. The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies. Good luck!

Overnight
US: The trade deficit expanded slightly to $42.0 billion in July from $41.9 billion in June.
Canada: Housing starts rose to 224.9K in August from 208.0 in July.
Canada: International merchandise trade showed a deficit of C$2.34 billion in July, wider than -C$1.93 billion in June.

Today's economic calendar
Japan: Domestic corporate goods price index for August
Japan: Machinery orders for July
Japan: Tertiary industry index for July
Australia: Westpac consumer confidence index for September  

Asian Stocks Rise on Bets China, U.S. to Stimulate Growth(Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the longest winning streak in two months, on speculation China and the U.S. will take more measures to spur growth in the world’s two biggest economies. Electronics maker Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), which gets 48 percent of its revenue in China and America, rose 1 percent in Seoul. Fanuc Corp., the world’s biggest maker of industrial robots, gained 1.6 percent after Japan’s machinery orders increased more than estimated in July. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Australia’s No. 1 oil producer, added 1 percent as crude advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 120.19 as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for a five-day advance, the longest winning streak since July. Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open. More than six stocks advanced for each that fell on the measure, with nine of 10 industry groups rising.
“The market is getting confident that governments won’t let economies get worse, as expectations are mounting in the U.S. for more monetary easing and China expands public investment,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “The market won’t see a clear direction as investors are still sitting on the fence.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.8 percent this quarter through yesterday as expectations of further stimulus measures overshadowed signs of a global economic slowdown. The Asian benchmark traded at 12.4 times estimated earnings, compared with 13.9 times for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPXL1) and 12 times for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

Japan Stocks Gain on Stimulus, Machine Orders(Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks climbed, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) heading to its highest close in two weeks, on speculation policy makers in the U.S. and China will announce plans to stimulate the world’s largest economies and as machinery orders in Japan beat expectations. Fanuc Corp. (6954), a maker of industrial robots used in Chinese factories, gained 1.3 percent. Canon Inc., a camera maker that relies on the Americas for 27 percent of its revenue, advanced 1.8 percent. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. gained 1.6 percent after Japan’s machinery orders rose more than estimated in July. Oki Electric Industry Ltd. slumped 13 percent to lead declines on the Nikkei 225 after saying improper accounting at its Spanish unit will cut profit by 30.8 billion yen ($395 million). The Nikkei 225 gained 1.4 percent to 8,928.57 as of 10:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Trading volume was 20 percent above the 30-day average. The broader Topix Index rose 1.2 percent to 741.14, with about four stocks advancing for each that fell.
“We’re going to see something coming through from the Fed,” said Chris Weston, a Melbourne-based trader at IG Markets Ltd. “The signs that we got from China that they’ll meet their targets are also positive. The market’s being supported by central banks and there’s some juice left in these markets.” The Topix dropped 15 percent from this year’s peak on March 27 through yesterday on concern Europe’s debt crisis is deepening and as growth slows in China and the U.S. The gauge trades at 0.9 times book value, compared with 2.2 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 1.5 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. A number below one means companies can be bought for less than the value of their assets.

U.S. Stocks Advance Amid Speculation Over Fed Decision(Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rose, after yesterday’s drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will act to stimulate the economy. Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) climbed at least 1.7 percent, pacing gains among the biggest companies. Eight out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 rose. Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped 3.9 percent after saying it will purchase the rest of its brokerage joint venture from Citigroup Inc. (C) Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) led declines among luxury goods companies as Burberry Group Plc said profit will be at the lower end of estimates. The S&P 500 added 0.3 percent to 1,433.56 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 69.07 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,323.36 today. Volume for exchange-listed stocks in the U.S. was 5.9 billion shares, or almost in line with the three-month average.
“The market is anticipating that there will be some stimulus move on the part of the Fed,” John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers, a unit of Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial Inc., which manages about $960 billion, said by telephone. “The market is grinding higher on liquidity because of what central banks have done and on hopes of further stimulus from the Fed and positive moves from European policy makers.” The S&P 500 is less than 10 percent from its record closing high after rising 14 percent this year. The equities index is 20 percent above its level on Sept. 15, 2008, the first trading day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the world’s biggest bankruptcy and prompted a 46 percent drop through March 9, 2009. The benchmark gauge fell 0.6 percent yesterday as concern Greece’s debt crisis will worsen overshadowed speculation that central banks will take steps to support the global economy.

European Stocks Advance on German Court, Fed Speculation(Bloomberg)
European stocks climbed as Germany’s top constitutional court said it will proceed with a ruling on the country’s role in the euro-area bailout fund and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will boost stimulus. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Europe’s biggest lender by assets, advanced 4.1 percent after saying it will cut jobs and review pay practices to boost profitability. IG Group (IGG) Holdings Plc jumped 6.5 percent after saying first-quarter sales were in line with forecasts. Burberry Group Plc plunged by a record 21 percent after forecasting full-year profit will be at the lower end of analyst estimates. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.3 percent to 272.58 at the close of trading, the highest level in three weeks. The measure has surged 11 percent this year as European Central Bank policy makers agreed on an unlimited bond-buying program and speculation grew that the Fed will announce a third round of quantitative easing.
“Central banks seem to be more committed to do what it takes to provide the stimulus required both in Europe and the U.S.,” said Henk Potts, an equity strategist at Barclays Plc’s wealth-management division in London, which oversees $239 billion. “We expect to see a commitment to another round of QE from the Fed.” The Fed will give its latest policy statement on Sept. 13, following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Aug. 31, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will provide further stimulus as needed to cement a recovery, citing his concern about the jobless rate.

Emerging Stocks Gain on Stimulus Expectations(Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks gained for a fourth day amid expectations that U.S., Chinese and Indian central banks will act to stimulate their economies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) added 0.3 percent to 973.09 at 5:01 p.m. in New York for its longest streak of gains in a month. Brazil’s Bovespa (IBOV) index rose as homebuilder Gafisa SA (GFSA3) surged to a five-month high after saying it’s considering selling a stake in its Alphaville unit. Equity gauges in Chile, Hungary and Poland advanced. India’s Sensitive Index (SENSEX) climbed the most in Asia on speculation the government will cut borrowing costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee will discuss additional measures to stimulate the U.S. economy at a two-day meeting starting tomorrow while Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the country has “ample strength” to take monetary or fiscal steps to meet its economic goals. Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court said it will issue a ruling tomorrow on whether to allow the country to ratify the 500 billion-euro ($643 billion) European Stability Mechanism. “With the ECB announcement last week, the likelihood the Fed will do something on Thursday and some possibility China will do the same, there is quite a lot of potential stimulus on the table,” John Lomax, an emerging-markets strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in a phone interview from London. “When you’ve seen that collection of announcements, particularly on the monetary side, emerging markets have responded strongly over a period of time.”
The MSCI gauge has rallied 3.6 percent from a six-week low on Sept. 5 after China unveiled new spending plans for roads and subways and the European Central Bank announced a bond-buying program to support growth in the European Union, which purchases about 30 percent of exports from nations in the MSCI gauge. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) Index added 0.3 percent to 1,433.56.

Dollar Is Near 4-Month Low Versus Euro Before Fed Meets(Bloomberg)
The dollar was 0.1 percent from a four-month low against the euro before the Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting today amid speculation it will decide to buy bonds to boost the economy. The U.S. currency remained lower versus all of its 16 major counterparts following a decline yesterday after Moody’s Investors Service said the country’s Aaa rating may be cut if it doesn’t reduce its ratio of debt to gross domestic product. The euro was near a two-month high against the yen before Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court issues its ruling today on the country’s participation in Europe’s bailout fund. “The market is discounting another tranche of money printing from the Fed,” said Derek Mumford, a Sydney-based director at Rochford Capital, a currency risk-management company. “That would be negative for the dollar.”
The dollar traded little changed at $1.2852 per euro as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo after weakening as much as 0.9 percent to $1.2871 yesterday, the lowest since May 14. It was little changed at 77.80 yen after losing 0.7 percent at the close in New York. The euro bought 99.99 yen from 99.97. It reached 100.43 on Sept. 7, the strongest since July 4. The Fed bought $2.3 trillion of securities from 2008 to 2011 in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. In an Aug. 31 speech, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said weak hiring and unemployment exceeding 8 percent posed a “grave concern” and that bond purchases are a policy option.

Aussie Nears 3-Week High as Fed Bets Boost Risk Demand(Bloomberg)
The Australian dollar touched an almost three-week high as demand for riskier assets rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will implement a third round of quantitative easing, or QE, at a meeting that begins today. Australia’s currency gained against most major counterparts as Germany’s constitutional court is set to decide on the country’s participation in Europe’s bailout fund. The so-called Aussie and New Zealand’s dollar strengthened versus the greenback yesterday after Moody’s Investors Service said the U.S.’s Aaa rating may be cut. A private report today showed an improvement in Australian consumer confidence. “If the Fed decides to conduct QE3 as the markets expect, it’s likely to lead to a risk-on sentiment,” Junichi Ishikawa, a Tokyo-based analyst at IG Markets Securities Ltd. said. “The Aussie and kiwi are supported on the back of the U.S. dollar’s broad weakness.”
The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent to $1.0445 as of 10:58 a.m. in Sydney after earlier touching $1.0452, the strongest level since Aug. 23. New Zealand’s dollar, known as the kiwi, added 0.1 percent to 81.81 U.S. cents, following a 1.1 percent advance yesterday. Australian government bonds declined, with the yield on 10- year notes rising five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 3.17 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks gained 0.7 percent. The MSCI World Index rallied 0.4 percent yesterday.

Trade Gap in U.S. Widens as Exports Start to Wane: Economy(Bloomberg)
The U.S. trade deficit widened in July for the first time in four months as the global economic slowdown took a toll on American exports. The gap grew to $42 billion from a revised $41.9 billion in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The deficit with China climbed to a record, and it was the widest in almost five years with the European Union. Another report showed job openings in July declined. A stagnant Europe and cooling emerging markets may further limit shipments from America’s shores, removing a source of strength for the three-year expansion. The figures coincide with a recent deceleration in U.S. manufacturing and indicate the economy will rely on consumer spending, business investment and housing to pick up the slack.
“Global demand is weakening,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The second-half outlook is going to depend a lot on the consumers, and that means more than ever we have to stay focused on the labor data and also the confidence numbers.” Stocks climbed amid speculation the Federal Reserve will act to stimulate the economy at a meeting of policy makers Sept. 12-13. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.3 percent to 1,433.56 at the close in New York. Job openings in the U.S. dropped in July, indicating employment growth may be hard-pressed to pick up through year- end. The number of positions waiting to be filled fell by 58,000 to 3.66 million, the Labor Department said today.

U.S. Said Set to Target First Non-Bank Firms for Scrutiny(Bloomberg)
Regulators are poised to choose the first U.S. non-bank companies that are likely to be branded potential risks to the financial system, according to two people with knowledge of the plans. The Financial Stability Oversight Council plans to request confidential data from as many as five firms at a meeting this month, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans aren’t public. The request is a step toward deciding whether the companies should be subject to Federal Reserve supervision, including stress tests, higher capital levels and tougher liquidity requirements.
Regulators want to ensure that no firm posing a potential risk to the financial system escapes scrutiny, while non-bank financial firms argue that designation would burden them with unnecessary costs and economic stability wouldn’t be threatened if they failed. Bailed-out insurer American International Group Inc. (AIG) has said it meets thresholds the council set to decide which firms require further evaluation. GE Capital, a unit of General Electric Co. (GE), has said it expects to be named systemically important. If the council “identifies companies this month, it means that the first FSOC train is leaving the station and final designations could be made by the end of the year,” said Thomas Vartanian, a partner at law firm Dechert LLP in Washington whose clients may be affected by FSOC. “This new systemic oversight could have a significant impact on them if they cannot rebut designation.”

Bernanke Proves Like No Other Fed Chairman on Joblessness(Bloomberg)
When it comes to achieving his mandate for full employment, Ben S. Bernanke’s willingness to undertake more bond buying shows yet again that he’s the most aggressive and experimental Federal Reserve chairman in history. Unemployment that’s stalled above 8 percent for 43 consecutive months has prompted Bernanke to make the case for adding to his record monetary stimulus because it would provide a benefit, even if small, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Bernanke defended his use of unorthodox policies in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, and signaled a third round of so-called quantitative easing might be needed to lower joblessness. “He wants to do whatever it takes,” said Feroli, a former Fed economist. Bernanke’s message was “let’s get away from the squabbling” over the pros and cons of different strategies and “remember that we’ve got a huge problem here, so let’s do something.”
The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will weigh additional accommodation at its Sept. 12-13 meeting. Economists doubt a third round of bond buying would have much impact: Decision Economics Inc. and IHS Global Insight forecast $600 billion in purchases will boost growth in 2013 from less than 0.1 percentage point to no more than 0.4 point. “Even if Bernanke felt the numbers were small, he would still feel a need to act because he is not meeting the dual mandate on either side,” said Paul Edelstein, director of financial economics at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “We are below 2 percent inflation,” the Fed’s target, and “we are far from full employment.” The personal-consumption-expenditures price index climbed 1.3 percent in the 12 months through July.

Wen Signals China Has Ample Policy Room to Meet Growth Target(Bloomberg)
Wen Jiabao, China's premier, during the opening plenary session of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 11, 2012. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signaled there’s more room for fiscal and monetary policy to support growth, saying the nation has full confidence it will meet its economic goals for the year. “Be it monetary or fiscal, we still have ample strength,” Wen said yesterday at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Tianjin. The government has 100 billion yuan ($16 billion) in a fiscal stabilization fund and “we will appropriately use that for preemptive policy and fine-tuning to propel stable economic growth,” he said. The government is trying to prevent growth this year from slipping below the 7.5 percent target set in March, which would already be the weakest since 1990. Economists at Barclays Plc and UBS AG lowered expansion forecasts as Wen grapples with slowing industrial output and export gains, increasing pressure to ease policy.
“The government has fiscal and monetary war chests to revive growth but there does not seem to be much appetite to roll out a large-scale stimulus package,” said Wang Qinwei, a London-based economist with Capital Economics who previously worked at the People’s Bank of China. The country will continue to place more emphasis on ensuring stable growth, Wen said. He reiterated that China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and said the nation has implemented a series of steps to promote domestic demand.

Jump in Japan Machinery Orders Aids Efforts to Avoid Contraction(Bloomberg)
Japan’s machinery orders rose more than forecast in July even as weakness in exports and waning subsidies for auto purchases threaten to stifle economic growth. Orders climbed 4.6 percent from the previous month, after gaining 5.6 percent in June, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2 percent increase. Large orders can cause volatile results. Today’s reading and a pick-up in manufacturers’ confidence signal some resilience in an economy that Bank of America Merrill Lynch says is at risk of contracting this quarter. Japanese exports may benefit from U.S. and Chinese efforts to spur demand, with the Federal Reserve meeting this week and Premier Wen Jiabao saying yesterday that his nation has ample fiscal and monetary room to support growth.
The yen has climbed about 7 percent against the dollar since mid-March, while still remaining below the post-war high reached in October last year. The currency traded at 77.76 per dollar as of 9:03 a.m. local time in Tokyo today. Japan’s largest manufacturers turned optimistic for the first time in four quarters, according to a government index released yesterday, even as subsidies for consumers’ purchases of energy-efficient vehicles wind down and a stand-off in parliament over government financing threatens to limit fiscal stimulus. Japan’s central bank is due to meet Sept. 18 and 19 to decide whether the economy needs more monetary support. Growth was an annualized 0.7 percent in the second quarter, after a 5.3 percent expansion in the first three months of the year.

Japan Cost-Cutting Leaves Compensation Nearing Crisis Low(Bloomberg)
Cost-cutting by Japanese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for monetary easing to counter deflation. Nationwide compensation fell to 243.5 trillion yen ($3.1 trillion) in the second quarter, according to a government report in Tokyo yesterday. The number, which is seasonally adjusted, was only 0.7 percent above the level in the final quarter of 2009, which was the lowest since 1991. Sharp Corp. (6753) today unveiled additional wage cuts, joining fellow exporter Panasonic Corp., and Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), the operator of the nuclear plant destroyed by the 2011 tsunami, in compressing costs. The moves risk prolonging the deflation that’s plagued Japan since the 1990s, and hurting consumption already facing a threat from a sales-tax boost looming in 2014.
“As long as wage deflation continues, there will be no doubt that the Bank of Japan will have to continue monetary easing,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “There won’t be an end.” Second-quarter economic growth was yesterday revised down to an annualized 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent, fueling concern a contraction is possible in the three months ending September. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) closed 0.7 percent lower today, paring this year’s gain to 4.2 percent, as investors focused on Europe’s debt crisis, including the struggle by Greece to qualify for aid.

Korea Seen Cutting Rates to Spur Growth as Election Looms(Bloomberg)
South Korea’s weakest inflation in 12 years may encourage the central bank to cut interest rates tomorrow for the second time this year, bolstering growth as a presidential election looms. Fifteen of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey say the seven-day repurchase rate will fall to 2.75 percent from 3 percent. One forecasts no change. Elections due in December may be increasing pressure on policy makers to support a slowing economy, with the government this week announcing 5.9 trillion won ($5.2 billion) of spending and tax relief. Subsidies for child care have helped to drag down inflation, leaving rooom to loosen monetary policy even as Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to hold rates at record lows tomorrow on rising prices.
“The Bank of Korea was concerned by a review of growth in June that showed slack opening up in the economy,” said Wai Ho Leong, a senior regional economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore who expects a rate reduction. “On the fiscal side, the government wants to fully employ all the budgeted money that’s available to prevent any slippage in job creation, ahead of elections.” South Korea’s central bank lowered its main rate a quarter percentage point on July 12, joining a global stimulus push from Europe to China. Consumer prices increased 1.2 percent from a year earlier in August, the least since the year 2000. Along with prices, Asian policy makers are assessing the threat to exports and confidence from Europe’s debt turmoil, and the likely effect of any easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which meets this week.

South Korea’s Workforce Expands as Unemployment Rate at 3.1%(Bloomberg)
South Korea’s workforce expanded last month, with the unemployment rate unchanged from July even as Europe’s debt crisis capped demand for exports. The jobless rate was at 3.1 percent in August, unchanged from the previous month, Statistics Korea said today in Gwacheon, south of Seoul. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists was for a rate of 3.2 percent. The number of employed people increased by 364,000 or 0.2 percent, to 24.9 million last month from a year earlier. South Korea’s government this week announced 5.9 trillion won ($5.2 billion) of measures to support growth as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and a slowdown in China drive down exports. The Bank of Korea will give the economy an additional boost by cutting the benchmark by a quarter point to 2.75 percent on Sept. 13, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
“It is necessary for policy makers to reignite growth,” Ronald Man, a Hong Kong-based analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc, said before today’s release. The won rose 0.1 percent to close at 1,128.15 against dollar in Seoul yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark Kospi stock index fell 0.2 percent. This week’s measures included extra spending and tax cuts intended to boost the housing market and car sales. Some 4.6 trillion won is allocated for this year, without any expansion of the government’s budget, and 1.3 trillion won for 2013. South Korea’s government is holding off from larger fiscal stimulus to preserve ammunition for any deeper global slowdown. Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded 2.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in almost three years, and exports fell 6.2 percent in August. The seasonally unadjusted jobless rate was 3 percent in August, from 3.1 percent in July, today’s report showed.

EU Recruits ECB to Lead National Regulators in Bank-Crisis Fight(Bloomberg)
The European Union today will unveil proposals for euro-area bank oversight that require unprecedented cooperation between the European Central Bank and national regulators. The Frankfurt-based ECB should expand its role as financial-system guardian by becoming the top-level supervisor of every lender in the 17-nation currency region, EU officials said in interviews. At the same time, the central bank would depend on national regulators for day-to-day supervision and ensuring that banks comply with European rules, according to the proposals. Safeguards for the U.K. and the other 9 nations that don’t use the euro are included, to protect them from being drowned out by their neighbors during rulemaking. Today’s plans aim to phase in the new system by Jan. 1, 2014, and all 27 EU members will need to sign off.
“What’s good about this proposal is it puts some distance between the cops and the gangsters,” Philippe Lamberts, a lawmaker in the European Parliament, said in a telephone interview. “There initially won’t be that coziness between banks and their regulator that has encouraged the regulator to turn the other way.” EU leaders decided to press for a single bank supervisor in June as a condition of allowing euro-area banks direct access to the zone’s firewall fund. EU taxpayers have provided 4.5 trillion euros ($5.8 trillion) in capital injections, guarantees and other forms of support to their lenders since 2008, exacerbating strains on public finances that have led Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus to seek aid.

Germany's constitutional court won't delay bailout fund ruling (Reuters)
Germany's Constitutional Court said it would not postpone its long-awaited ruling on the legality of the euro zone's bailout fund, despite a last-minute legal challenge by a eurosceptic lawmaker.