20110818 1534 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian stocks fall, Swiss franc holds
SYDNEY, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell on profit-booking by nervous investors, while the Swiss franc stayed firm after plans to curb the currency disappointed those looking for more drastic action.  
"What drove the Swiss stronger is less speculation and more fear of things going wrong in the euro zone. Until that's fixed, it's very difficult to see how the SNB can win," said Rob Ryan, FX strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore.

Morgan Stanley Lowers Global Growth Forecast
Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth this year, citing an “insufficient” policy response to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, weakened confidence and the prospect of fiscal tightening. The bank estimates expansion of 3.9 percent, down from a previous forecast of 4.2 percent, according to an e-mailed report dated today. A prediction of 3.8 percent for next year is down from 4.5 percent previously. The threat to the global economy from the debt burdens of developed nations from the U.S. to Europe has roiled world markets this month and wiped trillions of dollars off the value of equities. At the same time, slowing expansions in countries including Germany, the key driver of European growth, are hurting confidence.

U.S. Consumer Prices Probably Barely Rose as Inflation Began to Stabilize
The cost of living in the U.S. probably barely rose in July, supporting Federal Reserve projections that inflation will start to stabilize, economists said before a report today. Consumer prices excluding volatile food and fuel costs climbed 0.2 percent, the smallest gain in three months, according to the median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports may show the number of claims for jobless benefits and sales of existing homes rose. Lower energy and other commodity costs are allowing companies like Sara Lee Corp. (SLE) and J.M. Smucker Co. to hold the line on retail prices, one source of relief for customers faced with a stagnant labor market. Less inflation also means Fed policy makers have the flexibility to loosen monetary policy further should the world’s largest economy stumble.

US wheat falls from 2-month top; corn, soy ease
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat slid nearly 1 percent , ending a seven-session rally, while corn lost more ground on a broad-based weakness in financial markets triggered by concerns over global economic growth.
"It is more of a macro economic selloff than anything else," said Adam Davis, a senior analyst at Merricks Capital, a Melbourne-based fund that invests in agriculture.

Australia rain boosts wheat crop, some areas still dry
SYDNEY, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Rains in parts of Australia's New South Wales and Victoria are likely to boost prospects for this year's wheat crop, while the region that produces prime hard wheat is still dry, raising concerns for production of high-protein grains.
Analysts and traders said southern areas of New South Wales and Victoria have received widespread showers which are expected to improve yields for Australian prime and standard varieties of wheat.

Brazil mid-crop cocoa output could yet surprise
SAO PAULO, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Forecasts for Brazil's mid-crop cocoa harvest may have been too conservative, analyst Thomas Hartmann said, after a dip in output from some regions proved just a blip and as Bahia's output held steady.
"As the weekly data start to accumulate, it becomes increasingly probable that the initial forecasts for the Temporao, both for Bahia and for other producing states, have been exceedingly pessimistic," Hartmann said in a crop update.

West EU facing mixed wheat harvest after rain
HAMBURG, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Repeated rain looks like damaging this year's wheat crop in No.2 European Union producer Germany but the outlook in top producer France is looking better, analysts said on Wednesday.
France is still likely to gather a smaller crop than last year but quality is generally looking satisfactory, analysts said.

Brazil CS sugar output seen down at 32.3 mln T-JOB
SAO PAULO, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Sugar output from Brazil's main center-south cane region is seen at 32.3 million tonnes, revised down from a July forecast of 33.5 million tonnes, consultants JOB Economia said on Wednesday.
JOB's director, Julio Maria Borges, said he lowered his view for cane output in the region that accounts for 90 percent of Brazil's crop to 522 million tonnes, from 540 million in July. But JOB's estimate came in above the most recent flock of reductions of Brazil's cane crop estimates from other analysts.

Ukraine Aug grain exports seen at 1.2 mln T-lobby
KIEV, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian grain exports are unlikely to exceed 1.2 million tonnes in August, Ukraine's  Grain Confederation (UAC) industrial lobby said on Wednesday, down from exports of 1.3 million tonnes of grain in August 2010.
Ukraine exported 12.7 million tonnes of grain in the 2010/11 season and the government said the ex-Soviet state could export 21-23 million tonnes this season, building after the previous year's crop was depleted by adverse weather.

Asia sugar demand growth opens door to small suppliers
LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Increasing demand for sugar by China, Indonesia and Malaysia in the next few years is likely to lead to a surge in production by small suppliers such as southern African and Latin American countries as the big exporters fail to keep pace.
Demand growth in sugar is being led by Asia, analysts say. Next year will see Russia's import needs surpassed by China, Indonesia, Malaysia and a number of large refineries in the Middle East.

India fuel demand growth will beat IEA forecast: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - India's fuel demand growth is likely to slow in the second half of this year, but probably not by as much as the International Energy Agency forecasts.
In order to meet the IEA's latest forecast of a 3.6 percent gain in 2011, oil-product sales would have to expand 2.9 percent in the last six months, after they grew at a 4.3 percent rate in the first half.

Brent crude slips on euro zone woes, firm dollar
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell 0.2 percent , staying below $111 a barrel as ongoing concerns over Europe's debt crisis and a firmer dollar drew investors away from riskier assets like oil and into the safe havens of gold and the Swiss franc.
"The market was disappointed when Swiss central bankers didn't propose a euro peg, it sent a signal that they are content to let the franc appreciate and that led to a flight to safety, away from assets like oil," said Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.

Copper down on technicals, equities
SHANGHAI, Aug 18 (Reuters) - LME copper fell on technicals and the poor performance of equities, as investors fled risky assets for safe havens such as the Swiss franc on worries about global economic growth.
"In the short term, I think copper is range-bound between 63,500-67,500 yuan on the ShFE and $8,600-$9,000," on the LME, Jinrui Futures analyst Zhao Kai said.

JFE to boost global tin plate capacity - Nikkei
Aug 18 (Reuters) - JFE Steel Corp  will beef up its annual production capacity for tin plate, used to make beverage and food cans, by 47 percent to about 4.4 million tons by 2020, the Nikkei business daily reported.
The market for such anti-corrosive steel is expanding as living standards improve in emerging countries, the daily said.

China refined nickel imports may rise in Aug, Sept on margins
HONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters) - China's refined nickel purchases may rise in August and September after imports turned profitable earlier this month, prompting investors and merchants to book more spot metal, traders said on Wednesday.
Costs of refined nickel imports to China dropped below Chinese spot nickel prices last week as Chinese prices lagged London Metal Exchange nickel  price falls, traders said.

Namibia says will not raise mining tax to 44 pct
WINDHOEK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Namibia has decided not to go ahead with its plan to raise the mining tax for companies in the non-diamond sector to 44 percent after the industry expressed concerns, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
Instead it will stick with the current rate of 37.5 percent and proposed a formula-based surcharge to get extra revenues when the economy is doing comparatively well.

Gold edges up on growth fear; defies firm dollar
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on persistent worries about euro zone debt woes and slower global growth, defying a rebound in the dollar.
"But low interest rates in the United States and the messy situation in Europe will push gold higher."