20110818 1009 Global Commodities Related News.

Asia commodities markets insulated from crisis, but cautious
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Asia's commodities business is still largely insulated from looming fears of yet another global financial crisis, although new projects might face difficulties in getting financing.
All of the 10 banks and oil trading houses contacted said it is business as usual in the market -- from moving ahead with big-ticket infrastructure projects to maintaining the same credit requirements for derivatives trading and trade-finance.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures close weaker in a setback from recent gains. Traders book profits after the nearby September contract month touched a four-week high and most-active December reached a new contract high. Corn has not attracted "a lot of demand" from foreign buyers this week, opening the door for the market's slump, according to Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting. Traders at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday will digest weekly export sales data from USDA. CBOT December slips 2c to $7.25 1/2 a bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures end higher, with MGEX posting strong gains on concerns farmers planted fewer acres of spring wheat than previously expected. Traders reduce estimates for spring-wheat output after planting data from USDA's Farm Service Agency indicates federal forecasters overestimated the crop in another USDA report last week. "The FSA numbers make us probably have to come back around and have to reevaluate the USDA reports," says Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting. CBOT December wheat rises 6c to $7.58 a bushel, while KCBT December gains 5 1/4c to $8.47 and MGEX December climbs 20 1/2c to $9.16 3/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures close higher as global growers hold back on sales in anticipation of higher prices, analysts say. In Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, the government in November is expected to raise the price at which it purchases rice from farmers. Expectations for higher prices have spread to Vietnam, where prices have shot up by more than $100/ton in just a month. CBOT September rice rises 11 1/2c to $17.17 1/2 per hundredweight.

Wheat near 2-month top on US crop woes; corn steady
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose around half a percent to trade near a 2-month top as concerns over U.S. spring wheat yields and expectations of delays in winter crop planting supported the market.
"The market is going up because we have been seeing some good demand coming in at lower prices," said Abah Ofon, commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.  

Vietnam exporters default on rice deals as prices rise
BANGKOK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - A rise in rice prices in Vietnam, which have gone above Thai prices for the first time in many years, has forced Vietnamese exporters to default on deals totalling around 200,000 tonnes, mostly for delivery to other Southeast Asian countries and China, Thai traders said on Wednesday.
"A sudden rise in Vietnamese rice caused defaults and forced disappointed buyers to come back to us," Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters.

India may consider more rice exports - food min
NEW DELHI, Aug 17 (Reuters) - India may consider more non-basmati rice exports, Food Minister K.V Thomas said on Wednesday, as part of its efforts to trim bulging stocks.
"We have received several proposals for allowing exports from states like Andhra Pradesh where production was more than expectations," Thomas told reporters.

New Thai govt confirms jump in rice price for farmers
BANGKOK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - The new Thai government said on Wednesday it would start intervening in the rice market in November, buying rice directly from farmers at 15,000 baht ($502) per tonne, as promised by the main coalition party in its election campaign.
That is practically double the price of around 8,000 baht in the market around the time of the election on July 3.

W.Canada dry now, but rains may slow harvest
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Western Canada's farmers will likely have mostly warm, dry conditions for harvesting in the next two weeks, but a later turn to wetter weather could cause delays and leave crops at risk of frost damage, a Canadian Wheat Board official said on Tuesday.
"Wet and cool weather is exactly what we do not need given the delayed planting we saw across the Prairies," said Stuart McMillan, crops and weather analyst for the Wheat Board, which buys and sells Western Canada's spring wheat, durum and barley.

Indonesian rice output seen up 9 pct in 2012 - finmin
JAKARTA, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Indonesia sees unmilled rice production rising almost 9 percent next year, the finance minister said on Tuesday, as the country tries to boost crop output to improve food security.
Production of the staple food will hit 74.1 million tonnes next year, Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo told reporters in a news conference for the 2012 budget forecast.

Russian grain crop up on year with 39 pct harvested
MOSCOW, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Russia harvested 48.5 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by Aug. 16 from 17.2 million hectares, or 39 percent of the sown area, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
The ministry did not provide a comparative figure, but a year ago it said farmers harvested 40.1 million tonnes of grain by Aug. 18 from 19.2 million hectares, just over half of the area left for harvesting not damaged by a severe drought.

China Corn Prices Continue To Rise; Supply Tight Before Harvest (Source: CME)
China's corn prices rose to a new all-time high in the week, as overall demand from feed mills was high and supplies tight ahead of the fall harvest around October. In major cities in the eastern Shandong province, where feed mills and processors have a strong presence, the average price rose about 2% from a week earlier to up to CNY2,500/ton. In the top hog-producing province of Sichuan, prices rose about 1% to around CNY2, 560/ton. The nation's average wholesale corn price was CNY2,400/ton as of Aug. 10, up 0.8% from a week earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission said. Stocks with traders in northeastern China, the major producer that accounts for about 40% of the nation's production, were only 3 million tons and are falling, Baocheng Futures analyst Bi Hui said. Corn prices will likely continue to rise before the harvest in October, but the upside is limited, the Ministry of Agriculture said in a research note published on the official Farmer's Daily Tuesday.
The growth in demand from starch and alcohol makers is expected to slow as the government is restricting expansion of the sector to ensure supply to feed mills, it said. Wholesale pork prices in China rose 0.1% in the week to Sunday, snapping three weeks of flat or lower prices, the Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday. Meanwhile, the hog-to-corn price ratio, an indicator of returns from hog production, rose last week after three weeks of decline, NDRC data showed, suggesting profit margins for hog raising remain strong.

China Seeks To Cut Fertilizer Use In Agriculture -Editorial (Source: CME)
China's government will seek to reduce overuse of fertilizer that has contaminated 7% of China's arable land, with domestic use of fertilizer higher in than most other countries, according to an editorial in the state-run China Daily. China has reported seven straight years of record grain harvests and is on track to post an eighth, but senior government agriculture-policy officials have warned that ever-higher grain output goals create a risk of fertilizer overuse harming domestic agriculture. The editorial described overuse of fertilizer as a "potential food security hazard," and said that "an increasing number of villagers have developed the habit of relying on fertilizer for a good harvest." "They never seem to realize that they are eviscerating the sustainability of their fields."
China declined to pursue a bid for Canada's Potash Corp. of Sasketchewan Inc. last year, after people familiar with the matter indicated that Chinese companies had considered attempting to trump an abortive $40 billion offer by BHP Billiton Ltd. offer for the fertilizer producer. China uses 54 million metric tons of fertilizer a year, the largest in the world, according to the editorial. The country uses 341 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare, higher than in most other countries, it said. Overuse has contaminated 7% of total arable land, or 10 million hectares, it said, citing the Ministry of Agriculture.

Russia Exported Record 2.6M Tons Grain In July (Source: CME)
Russia exported nearly 2.6 million metric tons of grain in July, an all-time record for the month, the federal customs service said. Wheat exports in July totaled 2.4 million tons, the largest buyers being Egypt and Turkey. Barley exports totaled 100,000 tons, more than half of it going to Saudi Arabia. There was also a small amount of corn going to Greece. On July 1 the Russian government lifted a ban on the export of grain imposed as a result of last year's poor harvest, which was caused by drought.

Myanmar Suspends Export Tax As Strong Currency Hits Agri Exports (Source: CME)
Myanmar has suspended export taxes on a wide range of farm products including rice, beans and pulses, trading and industry executives said. This has helped improve rice supply from Myanmar at a time when African demand for cheaper grades is high following shrinking supply from Thailand where millers are holding back stocks ahead of a government plans to raise procurement prices. Thai export prices have already gone up after the new government said it would go ahead with plans announced during election campaigning to nearly double domestic prices offered to rural rice growers. Myanmar's government suspended the 5% export tax on rice earlier this week, although it will continue to levy a 2% income tax on all shipments, said a Yangon-based executive of the Myanmar Rice Industry Association, or MRIA. This is the second cut in export taxes in as many months, he said. In July, the export tax on rice was cut to 5% from 8% before that.
Traders said the government's move comes as a strengthening local currency is eroding export margins. Expectations that the government may undertake currency reforms in the fourth quarter following significant foreign exchange inflows in recent months, has strengthened the kyat, Myanmar's currency, said a commodities analyst in Yangon. Government officials couldn't be reached for comment. The kyat has strengthened to around MMK740 to the U.S. dollar compared to MMK800 a month ago amid increased foreign direct investments as the government is undertaking large-scale sale of fixed assets such as agricultural land to foreign investors. A stronger kyat implies that even the suspension of export tax won't translate into lower rice prices, said a Singapore-based rice exporter. Myanmar's 25% broken rice is already cheapest in the world. Local traders currently offer rice to global commodity trading companies around $410-$415/ton. This is shipped by exporters around $431/ton, free-on-board.
Last week, Vietnam offered 25% broken rice around $535/ton, FOB and the corresponding Thai grade is available around $505/ton, FOB. The MRIA executive said Myanmar exported up to 50,000 tons of rice in each of the last few months but shipments are likely to pick-up from August due to strong demand from West Africa. At least seven vessels with a total capacity of 148,000 metric tons are currently loading or awaiting berths at Yangon port, they said. Meanwhile, Thai millers and growers are holding back rice in anticipation of an increase in the government-set intervention prices. With that pushing up international prices, Vietnamese exporters have cancelled several export contracts. Prices were also finding support from news that India's plan to export about a million tons of rice hit a roadblock after a court stayed an earlier government decision allocating export quotas. Pakistan's rice harvest will gather momentum only in October.

Japan Seeks 250,000 Tons Feed Grain In August 24 SBS Tender (Source: CME)
Japan's agriculture ministry is seeking 50,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley in a sell-buy-sell tender, a government official said. The ministry is seeking the grains for shipment by Nov. 30, and the tender will close on August 24, said the official from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. The tender seeks the entire quantity in bulk shipments. In another SBS tender, Japan bought 14,750 tons of feed wheat but no barley. Last week, Japan didn't make any purchases and on Aug. 3, it bought 33,700 tons of feed wheat and 81,050 tons of feed barley. Japan has canceled 11 of the last 18 weekly SBS tenders for feed grain due to a lack of buyers and sellers. It purchased a total of 110,180 tons of wheat and 291,500 tons of barley in the other seven.
Under the SBS system, end-users can negotiate as a group on the price, quantity and origin of grains before submitting bids to trading firms via the agriculture ministry. Japan mostly buys wheat and barley from Canada, Australia, the U.S. and France.

Barclays, A Perennial Commodity Bull, Pegs Even Higher Prices (Source: CME)
To the chagrin of consumers, the era of high commodity prices is here to stay. That's the timbre of a 200-page report released by Barclays Capital. The upshot: Surprisingly strong demand and continued scarcity of supply lurk behind commodities' post-2008 comeback and will keep prices moving higher in the next few years. The warning highlights the position among some investors, banks and researchers that this year's record-setting rallies for copper, corn, livestock and cotton among other commodities are reflecting demand increases in China and other developing markets that are moving too quickly for supplies to keep pace. Now, though, there is a growing belief that anything short of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and other developed countries will mean further cost increases for raw materials. "Market sentiment still looks at odds with the robustness of commodity fundamentals, and any brightening of the gloom could boost prices quite quickly," Barclays analysts wrote in the report.
The sentiment echoes that of Morgan Stanley, which said last week that commodities should "stay resilient" even with only modest economic expansion. A longer-term view came in the last two quarterly investor letters from market guru Jeremy Grantham. Grantham, a veteran investor at GMO, said the "inevitable mismatch between finite resources and exponential population growth" was showing its face in the rising prices of raw materials. Further increases will mean more expensive food, gasoline and other goods for U.S. consumers, increased price volatility and rising obstacles to global economic growth. For its part, Barclays has honed in on corn, copper and crude oil. Those markets, the bank's analysts said, are "already driven by longer-term scarcity issues" and are less likely to suffer declines due to high volatility related to debt worries in the U.S. and Europe. The firm also recommends gold.
Gold has historically been used as a store of value, not an industrial or agricultural building block. Its cache has always been its scarcity. The stampede into the yellow metal was on display Tuesday, as investors spooked about slowing growth in Europe sent gold to a fresh record. Futures settled $26.90, or 1.5%, higher at $1,782.40 an ounce. Oil prices reached highs above $114 a barrel in early May. Copper traded above $4.500 a pound as recently as July, near all-time highs. In June, corn futures traded at nearly $8 a bushel, up from lows below $3.50 a bushel a year earlier. Kevin Norrish, commodities analyst at Barclays in London, said the continued economic growth in China and developing economies through the global recession shows that demand from these areas is set to continue. "As people move up the developmental scale, the demand for commodities increases exponentially. We're at that stage now in India, in China," Norrish said.
Critics are skeptical, however, saying that history has repeatedly proved such predictions wrong. The oil crises of the 1970s generated fears of resource scarcity. But by 1998 oil prices had fallen to $11 a barrel. Record highs above $147 a barrel in 2008 came with a forecast by Goldman Sachs that $200 a barrel oil was ahead. Crude prices fell to $30 a barrel. In the most famous example, 19th-century classical economist Thomas Malthus argued population growth would be checked by famine and disease just ahead of the Industrial Revolution, which squelched--or at least massively delayed--his predictions. Edward Meir, senior commodity analyst at MF Global, said he's heard warnings of disappearing resources for thirty years. "In long-term forecasting, people freeze their assumptions and they extrapolate current conditions. But that's very dangerous," Meir said. "This commodity rally has been driven by China, which is understandable and justified. But it opens the door to 'what if something happens in China?'"
Barclays has garnered a reputation for its bullish calls in recent years, which Norrish defends as reflective of the general move higher in commodities. "We've been a bullish lot because commodities have been a bullish lot," he said. "We could be bearish and be wrong, but why do that?"

Chinese Hunger For Corn Stretches Farm Belt (Source: CME)
China's struggle to meet the growing demands of its middle class is fueling a sudden surge in demand for corn, sending vast ripples across the U.S. farm belt and potentially upending the grain's trade flows around the world. China's need for corn -- which forms the basis of sweeteners, starch and alcohol as well as feed for livestock -- was on stark display in July when the nation ordered 21 million bushels of U.S. corn in one hit, more than the U.S. government thought the country would buy in a year. The purchase surprised the market and came as an intense July heat wave was shrinking the potential size of the Midwest crop. China bought another 2.2 million bushels of U.S. corn early this month. Corn prices, which have nearly doubled over the past year, climbed another 1% Tuesday. The corn futures contract for December delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade rose 7.5 cents to settle at $7.275 a bushel. China's influence on corn demand underlines how its fast-growing economy is reshaping global commerce.
The nation, with its growing population of 1.3 billion people, has been a major player in commodities markets in recent years. China already buys about a quarter of all U.S. soybeans. But its sudden demand for corn caught many off guard. China, which hadn't been a net importer of corn for 15 years until last year, has a vast corn belt of its own and for many years strove to be self-sufficient. And because China is secretive about the levels of commodities it holds in its strategic reserves, the rest of the market can only guess what its supply needs are.
Many attribute the larger-than-expected demand to a growing middle class that is changing its tastes more quickly than anticipated. As the Chinese population becomes wealthier, for example, it is eating more pork. And the Chinese government is pushing its farmers to adopt Western methods of raising their pigs, including feeding them more corn. Citizens also are slurping up juices and other products that include corn-based sweeteners: Coca-Cola Co. said that its volume in China spiked 21% in the second quarter. Ma Liangfeng, a 69-year-old retired engineer living in Shanghai, says the array of packaged products lining store shelves was "unthinkable" just 30 years ago. Back then, families had to reserve staple meats like pork for special occasions. The changes have caused big changes throughout the food chain, including U.S. companies and farmers putting in place infrastructure that will enable massive shipments of grains and other products to Asia.
Many U.S. traders and economists believe the recent purchases signal U.S. sales will grow so rapidly that China could become the biggest foreign buyer of U.S. corn within five to 10 years, dethroning Japan, which bought about 610 million bushels of U.S. corn last year. "We think this is the inflection point," says Brian Schouvieller, a grain marketing executive at CHS Inc., the U.S.'s biggest farmer-owned cooperative. "We believe that, from now, China is going to be a steady buyer." To be sure, Western executives have been wrong before about China's appetite for foreign corn. A sudden surge of Chinese buying in the mid-1990s sparked talk of a trade boon for U.S. farmers, but it was a blip. While China's middle class is far bigger now, and its gross domestic product grew a blistering 9.5% in the second quarter, economists predict turbulence. Much of China's breakneck growth is fueled by government-led investment, not entrepreneurs, and China's housing market appears to be overheating.
Still, the threat of instability might well work in the favor of U.S. farmers. China's ruling Communist Party worries in particular about food inflation, which could put social stability at risk. In an effort to preserve domestic supplies, the government has already stopped construction of factories that convert Chinese corn into ethanol fuel. But rising pork prices, thanks in part to higher demand and the rising cost of feed, accounted for more than a quarter of the 6.5% jump in China's consumer price index in July from a year earlier. In the eastern province of Zhejiang, pig farmer Qian Fanghua's operation has grown to about 2,000 animals today, from less than 200 pigs four years ago. Mr. Qian's hogs require about 4,000 kilograms of corn-based feed each day. His growing farm, and others dotted around the country, is one of the reasons domestic corn prices have climbed so high as to make U.S. corn seem affordable.
This year, China is expected to use about five billion bushels of corn to make feed, a growth of 20% from five years ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA now forecasts that China will import 79 million bushels of corn from all sources for the 2011-2012 crop year. But some grain traders are much more optimistic. They said in interviews that they think China wants to buy 200 million bushels of corn from the U.S. alone. U.S. companies are already investing with China's ever-expanding appetite in mind. Decatur, Ill., grain exporter Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. said in July that it would build a shuttle-loading grain elevator near St. Cloud, Minn., with the capability of loading trains that are 110 cars long. And Minneapolis-commodity processing giant Cargill Inc. is expanding its corn sweetener factory in Pinghu.
A port terminal in Longview, Wash., scheduled to open this fall is the nation's first in at least two decades for loading ocean-going ships with grain. Grain giant Bunge and two Asian partners invested $200 million to build it. "The Asia market is the fastest growing market in the world," says Larry Clarke, the venture's chief executive. "We're working to get our infrastructure ahead of it." Biotechnology giant Monsanto Co. has had talks about deepening ties with Sinochem, the state-owned chemicals conglomerate with which it has had a corn seed-breeding venture in China since 2001. Ron Litterer, a Greene, Iowa, farmer, says he is paying close attention to China's growth and while he hasn't yet decided to increase his corn planting, that could change. Mr. Litterer raises 1,000 acres of corn and 500 acres of soybeans. "It just makes sense to think they will have to depend more and more on [food] imports," Mr. Litterer says.
For now, the amount of Chinese business confirmed by Washington is relatively small alongside America's total foreign sales. The U.S. exports about 1.8 billion bushels of corn globally. While nobody in the West knows for sure how much corn China will want to import and how soon, the possibilities fascinate grain traders. According to Michael Swanson, a Wells Fargo & Co. economist, doubling of per capita meat consumption in China so that it matches the U.S. level would require the country to use an additional 24 billion bushels of corn, or about twice what the U.S. produces in a year. "There's not enough grain in the world for them to do that," Mr. Swanson says. "But just moving in the direction is staggering to consider."

Corn, Wheat, Soybeans Called Higher as July Heat Wave May Curb U.S. Output (Source: Bloomberg)
What follows are opening calls for U.S. grain and oilseed markets.
-- Corn futures are called to open 1 cent to 3 cents a bushel higher on the Chicago Board of Trade on speculation that the hottest July weather since 1955 in parts of the U.S. Midwest damaged yields more than the government estimated last week, Jim Gerlach, the president of A/C Trading Inc. in Fowler, Indiana, said in a telephone interview.
-- Soybean futures may open 4 cents to 6 cents a bushel higher in Chicago on speculation that rain this week will miss fields in parts of the central and northwestern Midwest, increasing stress on plants, Gerlach said. Soybean-oil futures are expected to open up 0.15 cent to 0.25 cent a pound, and soybean-meal futures may open 50 cents to $1.50 higher per 2,000 pounds.
-- Wheat futures may open 4 cents to 6 cents a bushel higher on the CBOT, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange on speculation that wet weather during the U.S. planting season and unusually high temperatures in July will curb output in the northern Great Plains, Gerlach said.

Wheat Rises to Two-Month High as Dryness May Curb U.S. Winter-Crop Seeding (Source: Bloomberg)
Wheat futures rose to a two-month high on speculation that dry weather in the U.S. Great Plains will cut acreage of winter crops set to be planted next month. Parts of Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas have had a quarter of the normal amount of rainfall in the past 30 days, the National Weather Service said. U.S. output of hard, red- winter wheat, grown primarily in the Great Plains, may drop 22 percent to 794.4 million bushels from last year because dry weather has persisted since late 2010, the Department of Agriculture said. “It hasn’t been a good growing season, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a good planting season,” Jon Marcus, the president of Lakefront Futures and Options, LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

Wheat Gains for Third Day as Dryness in U.S. May Curb Winter-Crop Seeding (Source: Bloomberg)
Wheat rose for a third day in Chicago on speculation hot, dry weather in the U.S. Plains may curb seeding of winter varieties and on concern adverse weather in Russia and Ukraine might hurt crops. Dry weather in the U.S. cut soil moisture for winter-wheat areas of the southern Plains this week, Telvent DTN Inc. said in a forecast yesterday. A dry spell in Russia is threatening spring wheat, corn and sunflowers in the Volga Valley, where the worst drought in 50 years caused crop losses in 2010, the forecaster said. “There’s some uncertainty about winter-wheat acreage,” said Kieran Walsh, a broker at GFI Group Inc. in London. “There are some minor quality concerns with the Ukrainian and Russian crops. It’s a mixed picture on yields across the EU.”

India may miss rice output target as rains turn patchy
NEW DELHI, July 29 (Reuters) - India could miss its target for a record 102 million tonnes of rice production in the year that began in July because of scanty rains, but should still have plenty of supplies to meet demand, trade and industry officials said on Friday.
Monsoon rains, which irrigate 60 percent of India's farms, are expected to be at least 14 percent below normal in July and   could continue weak into August, weather officials said.

India Maharashtra's 2011/12 sugar output seen at record
MUMBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Maharashtra, India's biggest sugar producing state, is likely to turn in a record 9.3 million tonnes sugar in 2011/12 as cane availability is forecast to rise to 82.5 million tonnes on a higher area of sowing, a senior government official said.
"We have estimated availability of 82.5 million tonnes of cane and average recovery rate of 11.3 percent. That should materialise into 9.3 million tonnes of sugar next season," Vijay Singhal, sugar commissioner of the state, told Reuters.

India's 2011/12 rubber imports to hit record 200,000 tonnes
MUMBAI, Aug 2 (Reuters) - India, the world's second-biggest rubber consumer, is likely to import a record 200,000 tonnes of natural rubber in the year ending March 31, 2012 as tyre makers cash in on lower customs duties, the head of a trade body said on Tuesday.
"Considering the lower imports duty and price parity, I think imports of at least 200,000 tonnes would be there," George Valy, president of the Indian Rubber Dealers' Federation, told Reuters in an interview.

Coffee rises, bullish technicals, sugar nudges higher
LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - ICE coffee bounced higher in early trade on Wednesday, supported by bullish market technicals, while sugar was firm.
Arabica  and robusta  coffee futures hit a one-month high, as market technicals indicated potential further gains.

Vietnam revises down July coffee exports to 884,000 bags
HANOI, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Vietnam shipped 53,100 tonnes (884,000 bags) of coffee in July, a drop of 21 percent on the year, the customs department said, revising down slightly a government estimate from last month.
The revised volume brought Vietnam's coffee exports between January and July to 918,000 tonnes, or 15.3 million 60-kg bags, up 17.8 percent from a year ago, the Finance Ministry-run Vietnam Customs said in a report released on Tuesday.

Brazil cane crop to grow 17 pct in 3-4 yrs-Datagro
SAO PAULO, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Conditions are right for Brazil's cane output to grow 17 percent, or roughly 100 million tonnes, over the next three years to catch up with mills' capacity to crush the crop, analysts Datagro said on Tuesday.
Brazil's current crop is expected to reach 587 tonnes of cane, down from the 620 million harvested in the previous crop, due to bad weather and falling yields from an aging cane crop, Datagro said.

Patchy rains mostly bad for Ivorian cocoa -farmers
ABIDJAN, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Patchy light rains mixed with cooler, cloudy weather last week in Ivory Coast's main cocoa regions were largely bad for the development of the next 2011/12 main cocoa crop, farmers said on Tuesday.
Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in a crucial period when plantations need more sun to strengthen the crop to be harvested from October, at the official start of the season.

India's potash imports could fall 17 pct in 2011/12
MUMBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's second-biggest potash buyer, is likely to import 17 percent less in 2011/12 after two sowing months passed without deals, the country's top negotiator said, with 3 million tonnes of outstanding needs likely to be agreed in two weeks.
Indian fertiliser companies have already signed up for 2.5 million tonnes of potash for 2011/12, with 1.2 million tonnes from Russia, nearly 700,000 tonnes from Canpotex of Canada and the rest from smaller suppliers.

S.Korea's July coal imports drop 15 pct yr/yr
SEOUL, Aug 16 (Reuters) - South Korea's July coal imports dropped 15 percent to 9.04 million tonnes from 10.61 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the Korea Customs Service showed.
The country's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), meanwhile, rose 9 percent last month from a year earlier, according to customs data.

Brent oil rises near $110, eyes U.S. gasoline
LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose on Wednesday towards $110 a barrel after an industry report showed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. gasoline supplies and upbeat economic data trumped concerns over the euro zone debt crisis.
"Oil has steadily, if not slowly recovered from its risk aversion mode plunge that also took down equity markets," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas.

Oman oil output up, exports fall in H1 2011
DUBAI, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Oman's crude oil production rose 3 percent in the first six months of 2011 but exports fell by 1.8 percent compared to the first half of 2010, finance ministry data showed.
Oman produced 140.11 million barrels of crude in the period from Jan. 1 to June 30, with average daily production rising to 878,800 barrels per day (bpd) from 856,700 bpd in the same period of 2010.

Oil Declines in New York; U.S. Crude Inventories Show Unexpected Increase (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil dropped from a two-day high in New York as investors speculated that increasing crude stockpiles in the U.S. indicate weaker fuel demand in the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity. Futures slid as much as 0.3 percent today. Crude supplies climbed 4.23 million barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed. They were forecast to fall 500,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Most U.S. stocks declined as two Federal Reserve officials warned against applying too much stimulus to the economy. Crude for September delivery dropped as much as 28 cents to $87.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $87.36 at 9 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday rose 93 cents to $87.58, the highest since Aug. 15. Prices are 16 percent higher the past year.

China refined nickel imports may rise in Aug, Sept on margins
HONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters) - China's refined nickel purchases may rise in August and September after imports turned profitable earlier this month, prompting investors and merchants to book more spot metal, traders said on Wednesday.
Costs of refined nickel imports to China dropped below Chinese spot nickel prices last week as Chinese prices lagged London Metal Exchange nickel  price falls, traders said.

Weak stainless demand to sap nickel strength
LONDON, Aug 16(Reuters) - Deteriorating demand from stainless steel mills and rising mine production are likely to push the nickel market into surplus in the second half of the year and put modest pressure on prices.
The uncertain outlook for global economic growth and demand because of the debt crisis in the euro zone and the United States mean gloomier prospects for nickel demand.

Iron Ore-Shanghai rebar gains for 5th day in six, ore rises
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Shanghai steel futures rose for a fifth time in six sessions on Wednesday, supported by hopes that demand from top consumer China will stay strong, boosting prices of raw material iron ore.
The most-active January rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange  rose 0.6 percent to close at 4,863 yuan a tonne.

METALS-Copper edges up on Asian buying, weaker dollar
LONDON, Aug 17(Reuters) - Copper rose on Wednesday on buying interest from Asia and as the dollar weakened, but gains were limited as fears of a slower economic recovery, which may dent metals demand growth, dampened market sentiment.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 rose 0.6 percent to trade at $8,895 a tonne in official rings from $8,830 on Tuesday, when it hit its lowest in a week at $8,751.

PRECIOUS-Gold supported by euro zone debt concerns - RTRS
LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Wednesday, helped by investor unease over the resolution of the euro zone crisis after a Franco-German summit yielded no lasting solution to the regional debt problem, while a pickup in equities denoted improving risk appetite.
Equities and the euro pared earlier losses made after a hotly anticipated summit between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not deliver the decisive solution to the euro zone debt crisis.

Gold Futures Rise to Record Settlement Price as Inflation Concerns Mount (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold futures rose to a record settlement price for the second straight day after U.S. wholesale costs rose more than forecast in July, spurring demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.  An index of producer prices gained 0.2 percent last month, the Labor Department said today. Economists forecast a 0.1 percent increase. The so-called core measure, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.4 percent, the most since January. The dollar fell as much as 0.8 percent against a six-currency basket. Gold has gained 26 percent this year, reaching an intraday all-time high of $1,817.60 an ounce on Aug. 11. “The inflationary story is back,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior strategist at MF Global Holdings Ltd. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The weaker dollar is also helping gold.”

Baltic index at 1-month high, recovery seen light
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose to its highest in a month on Tuesday helped by modest iron ore bookings to China.
Brokers said growing world financial turmoil, tighter bank financing and rapid fleet growth would keep dry bulk freight rates under pressure in the coming months.