Wednesday, October 3, 2012

20121003 0947 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Pro Farmer: After The Bell Soybean Recap (Source:CME)
Soybean futures faced stepped-up liquidation pressure, with the November through August contracts posting double-digit losses. Nearby futures ended 27 to 29 3/4 cents lower. Meal and soyoil saw sharp spillover pressure. Yesterday's crop progress report showed 41% of the nation's soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday, which signals that hedge-related pressure will likely continue this week.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source:CME)
November Soybeans finished down 30 1/2 at 1529 3/4, 31 1/2 off the high and 3 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 30 1/4 at 1532 3/4. This was 2 3/4 up from the low and 31 1/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 11.6 at 462.9. This was 0.7 up from the low and 12.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.5 at 50.69, 0.66 off the high and 0.61 up from the low.
November soybeans traded sharply lower on the day while soybean meal and oil followed. Soybean oil saw significant pressure after Malaysian Palm Oil futures dropped to a fresh 3 year low overnight. Long liquidation and better than expected soybean yields continue to be a drag on prices in the near term. Many traders feel the USDA could increase the average US soybean yield by nearly 2 bushels per acre on the October 11th Supply and Demand report with current yield estimates at 35.3 bushels per acre. Soybean basis bids fell in Decatur, IL and Lafayette, IN yesterday which added to the downside pressure and it was reported that additional weakness was seen in Frankfort, IN today as harvest advanced. Many in the trade still believe Brazil is completely out of soybeans to sell for export going forward until their harvest is underway late in the 1st quarter of 2013 and this could add long term support to the market as importers come to the US for soybeans. Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase up to 180,000 tonnes of soybeans for December through February shipment this morning.

Soybeans Decline as Rain Boosts South America Crops; Corn Rises (Bloomberg)
Soybean futures fell to a 11-week low on speculation that rain will boost yield potential in South America, reducing demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Corn rose. Rain this week in southern Brazil and most of Argentina will improve soil moisture for planting and early crop development, Global Weather Monitoring said in a report today. Soybean production in Brazil may rise 19 percent from a year earlier to a record 79.1 million metric tons when harvesting begins in January, the consultant Celeres said yesterday. “Rain in South America means the crops are off to a good start, and that increases the odds for a big harvest,” Brian Grete, the senior market analyst for Professional Farmers of America newsletter in Cedar Falls, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “Rising crop potential has reduced speculative buying.”
Soybean futures for November delivery dropped 1.9 percent to close at $15.305 a bushel at 2 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $15.265, the lowest since July 13. The oilseed, used to make animal feed and vegetable oil, has tumbled 14 percent since reaching a record $17.89 on Sept. 4 on speculation that August rains boosted U.S. yields. The government will release its production update on Oct. 11. Corn futures for December delivery gained 0.2 percent to $7.5825 a bushel on the CBOT. The grain jumped 19 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the biggest quarterly gain since the end of 2010, after the worst drought in more than 50 years reduced damaged crops. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates production will tumble 13 percent this year.
Deutsche Bank AG said today that corn futures may rise 10 percent after the U.S. harvest is completed as demand exceeds supply. About 54 percent of the corn was gathered as of Sept. 30, up from an average of 20 percent for that time of year in the previous five seasons, the USDA said yesterday in a report. Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion, government figures show.

Soybeans Reach Lowest Price Since July on U.S. Harvest Progress (Bloomberg)
Soybeans fell in Chicago to the lowest price since July and corn slipped as harvesting in the U.S. advanced at the fastest pace in at least three decades, helped by warm, dry weather. About 41 percent of the soybean crop in the U.S., last year’s largest grower, was harvested as of Sept. 30, compared with 15 percent a year earlier, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Fifty-four percent of corn was collected, up from 18 percent. The harvest is progressing at the fastest rate since the USDA began collecting data in 1981. “It’s more the pace of harvesting that’s pushing prices lower, as it eases supply concerns,” Chung Yang Ker, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said from Singapore. “There’s also the anticipation for larger-than-expected yields.”
Soybeans for November delivery fell 1.4 percent to $15.38 a bushel by 7:05 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The oilseed earlier touched $15.355, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 13. Corn for December delivery dropped 0.7 percent to $7.5175 a bushel. Crops remain in the worst condition since at least 1988, with 33 percent of soybeans and 50 percent of corn rated poor or very poor as of Sept. 30 after drought this year hurt yields, USDA data show. Farmers may collect 10.727 billion bushels of corn, a six-year low, while the soybean harvest at 2.634 billion bushels may be the smallest since 2003, the USDA said Sept. 12. The agency is slated to update crop forecasts Oct. 11.
“As harvest results come in, the market appears to be more comfortable with availability,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts including Christina McGlone-Hahn said in an e-mailed report today. “While sentiment has turned more negative as the quarter comes to a close, we go back to fundamentals. Supply and demand balances are tight, particularly in the soybean complex.” Wheat for December delivery slid 1.4 percent to $8.72 a bushel, extending yesterday’s 2 percent slump. In Paris, November-delivery milling wheat fell 0.6 percent to 261 euros ($338) a metric ton on NYSE Liffe.

Ukraine to cut 12/13 sunoil output, exports – analyst (Reuters)
Ukraine, the world's leading exporter of sunflower oil, is likely to reduce sunoil exports to 3.09 million tonnes in the 2012/13 season from 3.23 million tonnes in 2011/12 due to lower production, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Tuesday.

EDIBLES: Malaysian palm oil futures slid further to their lowest in more than two years, as rising stocks and the record pace of the U.S. soybean harvest pointed to a growing global supply of vegetable oils. (Reuters)

Palm Oil Slumps Most Since October 2008 to Lowest in Three Years (Bloomberg)
Palm oil had its biggest daily plunge since October 2008 and fell to the lowest level in almost three years on concern slowing demand will cut shipments from the biggest producers, swelling a glut as output expands. The December-delivery contract lost 8.5 percent to 2,255 ringgit ($739) a metric ton, the lowest close for the most- active month on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange since November 2009. Futures have plunged 25 percent in five weeks. Stockpiles in Malaysia will increase in October, November and December and may reach a record 3 million tons by January, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said Sept. 23. Production peaks between July and October. Industry estimates for the southern region of Peninsular Malaysia showed output grew more than 26 percent in September, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, a director at Pelindung Bestari Sdn.
“These figures were widely unpopular and paved the way for large liquidation at the close,” said Paramalingam. “Production pressure coupled with soybeans tumbling to the lowest level since July prompted an outburst of fresh selling by speculators.” The southern states of Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca accounted for about 20 percent of crude palm-oil output in 2011, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The 14-day relative strength index was at 15.9 today and has stayed below 30 since Sept. 25. A reading below 30 is seen by some investors and traders as an indicator that the commodity is oversold and poised to rise.

Prices Tumble
Futures have plunged 38 percent from a 13-month high in April as a global economic slowdown hurts demand for the oil used in everything from candy to biofuel. Exports from Indonesia, the top producer, declined 6.6 percent in August to the lowest in two months as sales to China and the European Union fell, said the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. In Malaysia, the second-largest supplier, shipments fell 0.7 percent to 1.44 million tons in September, Intertek said. “Slowing demand is probably more worrying and you’ve got rising stockpiles as well,” Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research Pte., said by phone from Singapore today. “Nobody is immune to the economic slowdown.”
Soybean oil for December delivery dropped 1.5 percent to 50.44 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade. That takes soybean oil’s premium to palm to $373.46 a ton, the biggest since October 2008. The gap has widened almost sixfold since the beginning of May. Soybeans for November delivery lost 1.3 percent to $15.4025 a bushel, the lowest level for the most active contract since July.

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