SGS CPO export down 22.2% to 331,978 tonnes for the period of 1~10 Jul 2012.
Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap (Source: CME)
July soybeans closed 25 3/4 cents lower, while the August through January 2013 contacts posted losses in the teens. Despite the sharp losses, futures closed well off session lows. Far-deferred contracts posted lesser declines. The July Supply & Demand Report was bullish as USDA reduced its old-crop carryover estimate, the 2012-crop production projection and projected 2012-13 ending stocks from month-ago.
Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
August Soybeans finished down 16 at 1574 1/2, 50 1/2 off the high and 21 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 15 at 1523 1/2. This was 18 1/4 up from the low and 51 1/2 off the high. August Soymeal closed down 5 at 463.3. This was 8.3 up from the low and 17.5 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.47 at 53.82, 1 off the high and 0.36 up from the low. November soybeans traded sharply higher following the release of the USDA report but slowly lost ground to trade lower into the close. Technical traders see the sweeping key reversal from a contract high as a negative technical development. Soybean meal and oil also traded sharply lower on the day. Soybeans saw spillover pressure from a sharply lower corn market after the report was considered supportive for soybeans. The USDA pegged US soybean ending stocks for the 2012/13 season at 130 million bushels as compared with 140 million last month. Yield was adjusted lower to 40.5 bushels/acre from 43.9 posted last month. This is a 4.18% stocks to usage ratio and the USDA had to cut demand by 150 million bushels (crush and export) from last month's estimates to make the numbers fit. This would be the lowest stocks/usage number since the 1964/65 season. World ending stocks for the 2012/13 season came in at 55.66 million tonnes compared with 58.5 million tonnes last month and 52.51 million this year. The longer term outlook for soybeans remains positive as traders are anticipating an increase in U.S. soybean demand in the coming year due to the lower crop production out of South America. The weather forecast is still questionable for the central Midwest with rain in the forecast for the southeast and drier conditions in the west. Temperatures in the west could reach 90 to 100 degrees adding further stress to soybeans.
VEGOILS-Palm down on weak exports, tight supply in focus
SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped on weaker exports data, although losses were curbed by a tight global oilseed supply at a time when festival demand is supposed to rise.
"Despite the lower end-stocks yesterday, demand is slipping away," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "Empirical evidence suggests end-stocks could recover back up to 2 million tonnes by end September."
Cooking-Oil Imports by India Fall as Rupee Plunge Boosts Costs (Source: Bloomberg)
Cooking-oil purchases by India, the world’s biggest consumer after China, probably dropped for the first time in five months in June as a slump in the rupee to a record low deterred importers. Shipments slid to 850,000 metric tons last month from 862,550 tons a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of five processors and brokers. Imports of crude and refined palm oil declined 16 percent to 600,000 tons from 712,356 tons, the survey showed. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India will publish shipment data next week. Palm oil, used in candy and fuel, has slumped 15 percent from a 13-month high in April on concerns that a slowdown in China and the European debt crisis may curb demand. Lower Indian imports may boost inventories in Malaysia, second-largest palm oil supplier, as production enters the peak period. The rupee sank to a low of 57.3275 to a dollar on June 22, raising the cost of commodities priced in the U.S. currency.
“The rupee depreciation made imports expensive and kept importers away,” said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based brokerage Sunvin Group. “Buyers were also holding back purchases to take advantage of the lower Indonesian export tax in July.” Indonesia cut the tax rate for exports of crude palm oil in July to 15 percent, a level last seen in January, from 19.5 percent in June, Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the Trade Ministry, said June 25. The base price to calculate the levy was cut to $944 a ton from $1,098, he said.
Monsoon Delay
Palm oil for September fell 1.5 percent to 3,082 ringgit ($970) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. The most-active contract rose to a 13-month high of 3,628 ringgit on April 10. A surge in imports in the past four months lifted cooking- oil inventories including those at Indian ports to a record 1.7 million tons last month, according to the extractor’s association. Stockpiles may be about 1.6 million tons as of July 1, Sunvin’s Bajoria said. Purchases will increase in the next four months as the worst start to the monsoon in three years delays soybean and peanut sowing, he said. Imports will be between 800,000 tons and 900,000 tons a month until October, Bajoria said. The area under oilseeds dropped to 2.65 million hectares (6.5 million acres) as of July 6 from 3.73 million hectares a year earlier, according to the farm ministry. Soybean planting was 26 percent lower at 1.89 million hectares, it said.
Dwindling Supplies
Imports in the seven months through May jumped 32 percent to 5.61 million tons, according to the extractors’ association. India bought 8.7 million tons in 2010-2011. Purchases will climb to 9.7 million tons this year as local supplies are set to decline to 6.65 million tons from 7.25 million tons, GG Patel & Nikhil’s managing partner Govindlal G. Patel, who has traded edible oils for more than three decades, said last month. Crude soybean-oil imports probably surged to 125,000 tons in June from 50,616 tons a year earlier, while sunflower-oil purchases may have risen to 110,000 tons from 50,560 tons, the Bloomberg survey showed. Palm oil comprises almost 80 percent of India’s cooking-oil imports. The nation buys palm from Indonesia and Malaysia, and soybean oil from Brazil and Argentina.
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