MPOB Official Data for the month of Jun 2012 vs May 2012
Exports up 4.3% to 1.46 million tonnes
Stocks down 2.2% to 1.73 million tonnes
Output up 7.7% to 1.49 million tonnes
Soybeans (Source : CME)
Soybean trade is 32 to 36 higher with weather and demand continuing to push trade. Meal is $13 higher, and oil is 60 to 70 higher. The trade is set up for a run to the multi-year high at $15.44 as the chart lacks significant resistance. Support will be $15.00 for now. Weather remains far less than ideal, although there is more time to bail the beans out with a pattern change. The bean charts are pretty overbought which could open up some short term corrections, with the extensive fund length. Exports are delayed until tomorrow. Final Brazlian production was estimated at 67.4 million metric tons.
Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source : CME)
August Soybeans finished up 53 1/2 at 1583, 2 1/2 off the high and 38 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 51 3/4 at 1526 1/2. This was 33 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high. August Soymeal closed up 18.6 at 465.8. This was 13.8 up from the low and 0.7 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished up 1.19 at 54.33, 0.06 off the high and 1.02 up from the low. November soybeans gapped higher at the opening bell and seemed to gain in strength through the day to finally close near the highs of the session. The July contract gained on the August and November contracts after no deliveries were made. Soybean meal and oil both traded sharply higher into the closing bell. Continued concern over decreasing new crop soybean yields due to blistering temperatures this week supported the soybean market to new highs on the day. The forecast calls for cooler temperatures next week and a chance for better rainfall in dome areas, but confidence in those forecasts remain low. Afternoon weather maps call for a little warmer 1-5 day forecast for the northern U.S. and extreme heat is expected to stick around for another 3-4 days in central and southern Midwest. Changes also include a chance for better rainfall in the Midwest and western U.S. plains in the 6-10 day map. Brazil's government announced that their 2011/12 soybean crop would amount to 66.37 million tonnes, which is unchanged from their last estimate. Outside markets offered minimal resistance to soybeans, as the U.S. Dollar surged over 1% on the day and stocks were marginally lower. Traders continue to anticipate demand shifting to the U.S. market following one of the worst Brazilian droughts in years.
VEGOILS-Palm eases ahead of ECB rate meeting, weather caps losses
SINGAPORE, July 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures eased as investors turned cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy decision later in the day, booking profits from a weather-fuelled rally earlier in the week.
"The market is a little overbought technically and we see some initial profit taking. Fundamentally, end-stocks in Malaysia are tight while weather remains hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
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