Rueters : India's April 2012 refined palm oil imports at 97,547 tonnes (Reuters poll: average at 134,000 tonnes) VS 186,788 tonnes in March 2012.
Reuters Survey : India's April 2012 total palm oil imports seen up 12.5%, soy oil imports up 106.2% vs March 2012
Reuters Survey : India's April 2012 refined palm oil imports seen down 28.3% vs March 2012
Recap: Soybean Futures (Source: CME)
Soybean futures closed with gains of 23 1/2 to 25 1/2 cents in the May through January 2013 contracts. Farther deferred months ended with lighter gains. This was good for a high-range close. Soybean traders had no shortage of bullish news to digest today. USDA trimmed carryover for 2011-12 to 210 million bu., 11 million bu. more than the average pre-report trade guess. USDA’s 2012-13 carryover projection came in 25 million bu. below traders’ expectations at 145 million bushels.
Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
July Soybeans finished up 25 at 1455 1/4, 3 1/2 off the high and 25 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 25 1/2 at 1359. This was 27 1/2 up from the low and 9 off the high. July Soymeal closed up 8.6 at 424.6. This was 9.6 up from the low and 0.9 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.68 at 53.5, 0.15 off the high and 0.6 up from the low. July and November soybeans closed sharply higher on the day but closed off of the early-in-the-day highs. The USDA confirmed a very tight outlook for the coming season. The USDA pegged US ending stocks for 11/12 at 210 million bushels, which was slightly supportive against expectations and compares with 250 million estimated last month. For the 2012/13 season, ending stocks are projected at just 145 million bushels which is 20 million below expectations and is the lowest May estimate since 1988. November soybeans pushed sharply higher early in the session trading as much as 34 1/2 cents higher on the day. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 53.2 million tonnes which was right on expectations and compares with 55.52 million last month and down from 70.1 million last year. Brazil production came in at 65 million, down from 66 million last month and Argentina was revised down to 42.5 million from 45 million last month. However, the Brazil agriculture ministry this morning revised their crop estimate higher to 66.7 million tonnes from 65.6 as their previous forecast. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in better than expected at 466,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 1.36 million tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 1.827 million. Old crop sales of 76,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales came in at 138,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 97,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 235,500. Oil sales came in at 30,100 tonnes. Weakness in corn and the outlook for good weather in the Midwest were seen as negative forces. Meal was the leader on the upside. The Rosario Grains Exchange pegged the Argentina crop at just 40.9 million tonnes from 43.1 as their previous estimate.
VEGOILS-Palm oil gains on lower stocks view; USDA eyed
SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up, as traders bet on lower palm oil stocks, although gains were capped by lingering euro zone fears and weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data.
"The market is looking at the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) report today, market is a little bit positive on that," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
China to release 2.5 mln T state soy reserves in northeast
BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, will offer 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans to crushers from state reserves, mainly in inland provinces in the northeast, to cut government stocks before the new harvest, industry sources said on Thursday.
Sources expected the release, which will start late May, to have only a minor impact on imports because soy plants in the country's northeast use only domestic soybeans for crushing.
Soybeans Rise as U.S. Predicts Plunging Inventory in 2013 (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans rose the most in more than two weeks after the U.S. forecast a 31 percent plunge in domestic inventories next year, as drought damage in South America boosts demand for supplies from the Midwest.
Reserves will drop to 145 million bushels (3.94 million metric tons) on Aug. 31, 2013, from an estimated 210 million this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 172 million bushels. U.S. exports will jump 14 percent to make up for smaller crops in Brazil and Argentina this year and rising global demand, the USDA said. “U.S. carryover is already projected to be very small, and that means South America will have to harvest big crops to prevent a bigger global shortage from developing,” Bill Gentry, a broker at Risk Management Commodities Inc. in Lafayette, Indiana, said in a telephone interview. “We will need to see increased export demand to keep this rally going.” Soybean futures for July delivery advanced 1.7 percent to close at $14.5525 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest gain since April 20. The oilseed has rallied 20 percent this year.
Reduced soybean supplies in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter last year, may raise feed costs for meat producers including Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) and Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) Craig Huss, the chief risk officer at Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland Co., the world’s largest grain processor, said May 1 that reduced South American exports would make it “difficult to buy beans going forward.”
South America
Combined production in Brazil and Argentina will fall to 107.5 million metric tons in the marketing year that ends Sept. 30, from 111 million forecast in April and 124.5 million a year earlier, the USDA said. Output will rise to 133 million next season, the agency said in its first forecast of the crops. Estimated global production in the marketing year that begins Oct. 1 will rise to 271.42 million metric tons, from a revised 236.87 million tons this year, the USDA said in today’s report. World consumption is forecast at 265.14 million tons next year, up from a record 254.14 million forecast this year. Reserves before the 2013 Northern Hemisphere harvest will rise to 58.07 million tons, up from 53.24 million this year, the lowest in three years, the USDA said. Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expected 58.24 million, on average. Soybeans are the second-largest U.S. crop, valued at $35.8 billion in 2011, behind corn, government data show.
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