GRAINS-Soy eases from 4-year top, wheat dips on supply outlook
SINGAPORE, April 26 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans slid half a percent on Thursday as the market took a breather after rallying to its highest in almost four years on the back of further crop losses in South America and strong Chinese demand.
"The main reason for the rally in the last couple of days has been the freezing temperatures we have seen in parts of Argentina which are likely to have resulted in some damage to the soybean crop," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Market Recap: Wheat Futures (Source: CME)
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures were firmer throughout the day, ending mostly around 7 to 9 cents higher. Minneapolis wheat ended 7 1/2 to 15 cents lower. Early support came from short-covering and this morning's weekly export sales data, showing sales for both marketing years combined to surpass expectations.
Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
July Wheat finished up 9 at 635 1/2, 1 1/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 6 at 671 3/4. This was 8 1/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. July wheat was trading just slightly higher late in the day but a late buying spurt sparked a rally to new highs for the day late and a 9 cent higher close. Uncertain weather factors helped to support the early bounce and short-covering emerged to see moderately higher trade into the mid-session. High temperatures in parts of Ukraine and in the southern plains of the US plus cold weather in the eastern Corn Belt helped to support. Temperatures in northern Texas wheat areas were well above 100 degrees to as high as 110 degrees and this had traders concerned for yield losses. Weekly export sales came in at 386,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 357,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 744,000. As of April 19th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 99.3% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 95.7%. Sales of 32,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The International Grain Council lowered their world production forecast by 5 million tonnes to 676 million tonnes as compared with 695 million last year. Iraq bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat which traders thought was from Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan. July Oats closed down 1 1/4 at 340 1/2. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.
Libya plans to import 1 mln T of wheat in 2012 (Source: CME)
Libya expects to import 1 million tonnes of wheat in 2012 as production is expected to increase only slightly after last year's civil war, the director of the North African country's authority for cereal production said. "We expect to import 1 million tonnes of wheat. It will be done in specific (time) periods as required," Ali Rahuma, director of the authority which comes under Libya's agricultural ministry, told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.
Morocco wheat harvest seen falling to near 3 mln T (Source: CME)
Morocco's wheat harvest should stand at around 3 million tonnes this year, including 2 million tonnes of soft wheat, down sharply from a year earlier, the head of the country's agriculture industry group said on Wednesday. This would mean that wheat imports may rise by 50 percent from their level during the ongoing import calendar year, which starts in June and ends in May of the following year. Bread and semolina are the staples for Morocco's 34-million population.
Market Recap: Corn Futures (Source: CME)
Old-crop corn futures ended high-range with gains of 6 1/2 to 13 cents; September futures were fractionally lower; and new-crop futures settled mid-range with losses around 3 cents. Funds purchased 6,000 corn contracts today (30 million bushels). Bull spreading was the dominant action in the corn market today and nearby contracts received an additional boost heading into the close from talk China may be back in the market for more U.S. corn.
Corn Market Recap for 4/26/2012 (Source: CME)
July Corn finished up 6 1/2 at 607 1/2, 3/4 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. December Corn closed down 3 at 535. This was 5 up from the low and 5 off the high. May corn closed sharply higher while July was moderately higher into the close but on the highs of the day and December corn recovered from moderately lower on the day late ion the session but still closed lower. July corn saw mostly choppy to lower trade for much of the early trade until buying emerged late in the day. A firm basis market at the gulf and talk that the offers were pulled for delivery in the next few months due to a lack of producer selling helped to support. Weekly export sales came in at 645,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 180,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 826,200. As of April 19th, cumulative corn sales stand at 83.3% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.3%. Sales of 374,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The data suggests that the USDA may be in a position to raise their export forecast in the May 10th update. Ideas of little or no deliveries for first notice day for May corn has helped to provide underlying support to the old crop corn even with the sell-off in soybeans and choppy trade in outside markets. December corn was lower into the mid-session with talk of active planting in Iowa and ideas that the crop will get off to a fast start this year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced their corn production estimate by 1 million tonnes from their previous estimate to 19.8 million tonnes as compared with the April USDA forecast of 21.5 million tonnes. July Rice finished down 0.32 at 15.68, 0.01 off the high and equal to the low.
SOFTS-ICE coffee edges up early, sugar slightly lower
LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures on ICE edged up early, supported partly by a weaker dollar, although prices remained close to last week's 18-month lows while ICE cocoa also posted modest gains. Arabica coffee futures were slightly higher in a modest rebound after the prior session's steep setback.
ANRPC cuts 2012 rubber output forecast after Q1 fall
MUMBAI, April 26 (Reuters) - Global natural rubber output in the first quarter fell by a sharper-than-expected 9.5 percent as farmers in Thailand and Malaysia trimmed tapping on a steep drop in prices, promoting an industry body to cut its production forecast for 2012. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) revised down its total production estimate in 2012 for member countries to 10.297 million tonnes from 10.42 million tonnes estimated earlier.
Costa Rica 11/12 sugar output rebounds-attache
April 25 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Costa Rica: "Costa Rica's sugar cane and sugar production rebounded in 2011/2012 to 3,750,000 and 390,000 tonnes, respectively. Good weather conditions in the main production areas during 2011 resulted in higher production. Production is forecast to increase again during 2012/2013 as a result of slightly larger area planted."
Brazil '12/13 sugar output seen up at 37.8 mln T-Job Economy
SAO PAULO, April 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's total sugar output for the 2012/13 harvest, which will kick off in coming days, will reach 37.8 million tonnes, up from 36.2 million tonnes the season that ended in March, local sugar analysts Job Economy said on Wednesday.
Output of sugar from the main center-south cane producing region is forecast at 32.8 million tonnes, up from 31.4 million last season, which saw the first drop in output in 11 years due to drought and falling yields from aged cane fields.
Forecasts for Brazil's 2012/13 CS cane crop
April 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's center-south 2012/13 sugarcane harvest is struggling to expand this year after disappointing output in the 2011/12 season due to a mixture of bad weather and overdue replanting of ageing cane plants.
The new crushing season started in April. Although planting of cane has expanded, dry weather persists over the main growing areas which will limit the recovery of the crop in the world's largest sugar exporter.
China 2012 cotton acreage seen down 9.4 pct-survey
April 25 (Reuters) - China's cotton acreage in 2012 is expected to decline 9.4 percent year-to-year, as weak cotton prices and unseasonably cool weather in some growing regions prompted farmers to delay planting, the China Cotton Association (CCA) said.
Among the 2,963 cotton farmers surveyed by the industry group, 42.4 percent said they would reduce planting, 9.1 percent said they would increase, with 46.4 percent said they would keep the acreage unchanged compared with last year, CCA said on its website on Tuesday.
Argentine biodiesel mix seen reaching 10 pct soon
BUENOS AIRES, April 25 (Reuters) - Argentina should be able to meet a higher biodiesel mix requirement of 10 percent within three months, absorbing additional supplies of the soy-based fuel after Spain moved to cut imports, an industry group said on Wednesday. Madrid took steps to restrict biodiesel imports last week in retaliation for the South American country's decision to seize control of energy company YPF from Spain's Repsol .
OIL-Brent steady above $119; Fed comments support
SINGAPORE, April 26 (Reuters) - Brent crude was steady above $119 a barrel on Thursday, as optimism over a recovery in the U.S economy offset the impact of rising global supplies.
"The Fed's comments are supporting crude oil prices, despite a higher-than-expected U.S. inventory figure," said Miguel Audencial, a trader with CMC Markets in Sydney.
Oil Declines From Four Week High After Spanish Credit Rating Cut (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil fell from the highest level in almost four weeks in New York, trimming a second weekly gain, after Spain’s credit rating was lowered by Standard & Poor’s. Futures slipped as much as 0.6 percent after Spain’s rating was cut to BBB+ from A by New York-based S&P on concern the nation will have to provide fiscal support to the banking sector as the economy contracts. Oil prices may drop next week after economic confidence in the euro-region fell and more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude for June delivery slipped as much as 59 cents to $103.96 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $104.02 at 9:15 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday rose 43 cents to $104.55, the highest close since April 2. Prices are 0.9 percent higher this week and up 5.3 percent this year.
Brent oil for June settlement increased 0.7 percent to $119.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark contract’s front month premium to West Texas Intermediate closed at $15.37.
Gold Traders Get More Bullish as Central Banks Hoard More (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold traders are more bullish after central banks expanded their bullion reserves and hedge funds increased bets on a rally for the first time in three weeks. Fourteen of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and nine were neutral, the highest proportion in two weeks. Mexico, Russia and Turkey added about 44.8 metric tons valued at $2.39 billion to reserves in March, International Monetary Fund data show. Fund managers raised their so-called net-long positions by 2.5 percent in the week ended April 17, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said April 25 that he’s prepared to “do more” if needed to spur the economy, and Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has said the BOJ is “committed” to easing. Gold rose about 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing ending in June 2011.
The U.K. fell into its first double- dip recession since the 1970s, data showed April 25, while the IMF predicts the 17-nation euro region will contract. “Ultra-loose monetary policies of recent years don’t look like they’re going to end any time soon,” said Mark O’Byrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. “The problems in the euro zone don’t look like they’re going to end any time soon. We’ve had a dip, and our advice to clients is always to buy the dip.”
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