Soft China landing to cap 2012 commodities gains
SHANGHAI, March 31 (Reuters) - China's cooling economic growth will cap gains in commodities prices and temper the roaring earnings performance of mining companies. But easier credit and fresh spending on infrastructure will likely drive a strong medium-term outlook.
Soft manufacturing data last week coupled with warnings about economic risks by two of China's most influential government think-tanks have shaken confidence in the strength of commodities demand in the world's No. 2 economy, hammering miners' shares and pulling oil and base metals prices lower.
GRAINS-Corn at 1-week top on tight supply, soy up for 2nd day
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Chicago corn climbed to a 1-week top, building on last session's limit-up rally, which was triggered by data showing supplies at a five-year low in top exporter the United States.
"I think the corn supply pipeline will remain tight until the end of the season," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne. "The focus should turn to new-crop, which is bearish for corn and bullish for beans."
Russia Agmin to sell 2 mln t of grain at interventions
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Russia's Agriculture Ministry expects to end the agricultural year with closing stocks of 18 million tonnes of grain after exports and 2 million tonnes of intervention sales, which will start from April 4, the ministry said in a statement on Monday.
"By the start of the new (2012/13) agricultural year, stocks will be 18 million tonnes, which corresponds to FAO recommendations of 15-17 percent of annual output," the ministry said.
Uruguay wants to barter rice for oil with Iran
MONTEVIDEO, March 30 (Reuters) - Uruguay will ask Iran if the South American country can export rice in exchange for oil, the government said on Friday.
Iran used to be a major destination for Uruguayan rice but the impact of U.S. and EU sanctions, aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions, has put a strain on financing.
US farmers aim for record corn crop
WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. growers would harvest a record 14.2 billion bushels of corn this year, Agriculture Department data indicated on Friday, easing the tightest supplies in 16 years and cooling crop prices.
In a survey, growers said they would plant enough corn land, up 4 percent from last year, to reap a record-setting 14.2 billion bushels. It would be the largest corn area since 1937.
Coceral sees 2 pct fall in 2012 EU soft wheat crop
BRUSSELS, March 30 (Reuters) - Soft wheat production in the European Union is expected to fall by about 2 percent this year to 126.76 million tonnes, EU grain lobby Coceral said on Friday in its first forecast for this year's harvest.
Maize and oilseed output in the 27-nation bloc is also expected to be down on last year, Coceral said, but barley production is expected to rise to 54.03 million tonnes in 2012 compared with 51.72 million last year.
Corn - Old-crop corn futures ended the day 7 3/4 to 11 cents higher with new-crop futures 4 3/4 to 8 1/2 cents higher. Talk of even tighter 2011-12 corn carryover in the April 10 Supply & Demand Report helped support old-crop futures today. New-crop futures were dragged higher by gains in old-crop corn and strong gains in new-crop soybean futures. (Source: CME)
Corn Market Recap for 4/2/2012 (Source: CME)
Mon 02 Apr 2012 14:27:01 CT
May Corn finished up 11 at 655, 4 1/2 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. July Corn closed up 7 3/4 at 651. This was 9 up from the low and 4 off the high. The market saw strong demand for nearby futures with May corn closing sharply higher on the session and May gaining on July corn and July corn gaining on new crop December corn. The International Grains Council pegged world Maize (corn) production for the 2012/13 season at 900 million tonnes which is higher than demand for the first time since the 2008/09 season. The group sees world ending stocks increasing to 129 million tonnes from 122 million this season. South Korea's largest feed mill will tender for up to 280,000 tonnes of corn on Tuesday. Outside market forces showed some light weakness early today to help the market pull back off of the opening but a shift to positive outside forces plus a surge higher for soybeans helped to support. With excellent weather this spring so far, traders believe corn plantings as of Sunday will reach near 5% complete. Last year, there was no data for the week ending April 3rd but April 10th showed the crop was 3% planted. There is rain in the forecast this week across much of the Midwest which will be beneficial for soils and with the warmer than normal weather in March, the rain does not look heavy enough to slow fieldwork by anymore than 1-2 days. Weekly export inspections came in at 30.989 million bushels which was above trade expectations and compares with 31.3 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the season. May Rice finished up 0.12 at 14.885, 0.015 off the high and 0.225 up from the low.
US farmers boost corn acres to 75-yr high, shorting soy
WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will expand their corn plantings by 4 percent this spring to the largest in 75 years, topping expectations due to surprise reductions in soybeans and spring wheat, according to a government survey on Fri day.
Soybean prices jumped to hit their highest in six months, extending this year's rally after the Department of Agriculture said farmers would plant 1 percent less of the crop. Analysts had expected a rise in soy acres.
US farmers to plant the most corn in 75 years (Source: CME)
By Thomson Reuters - Mon 02 Apr 2012 10:30:00 CT
U.S. farmers will plant the most corn in 75 years to cash in on higher prices, topping expectations due to surprise reductions in soybean and spring wheat sowings, according to a U.S government report on Friday.
The dramatic expansion raised hopes that the next harvest would ease razor-tight supplies that have kept corn prices near historic highs.
US farmers aim for record corn crop (Source: CME)
By Thomson Reuters - Mon 02 Apr 2012 10:23:46 CT
U.S. growers would harvest a record 14.2 billion bushels of corn this year, Agriculture Department data indicated on Friday, easing the tightest supplies in 16 years and cooling crop prices.
In a survey, growers said they would plant enough corn land, up 4 percent from last year, to reap a record-setting 14.2 billion bushels. It would be the largest corn area since 1937.
Wheat - Futures closed mostly 3 to 5 cents lower in Chicago, 4 to 7 cents lower in Kansas City and mostly 5 to 11 cents higher in Minneapolis. Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures faced profit-taking pressure today after strong gains last Friday. Expectations that this afternoon's initial crop condition ratings of the spring will be improved significantly from last fall and year-ago also weighed on the winter wheat markets. Minneapolis wheat futures rallied amid an apparent late attempt to attract extra acres after USDA's planting intentions figure came in lower than anticipated last Friday. (Source: CME)
Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
Mon 02 Apr 2012 14:24:00 CT
May Wheat finished down 3 3/4 at 657, 9 1/2 off the high and 7 3/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 4 1/2 at 669 1/2. This was 8 1/2 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high. May wheat closed slightly lower on the session but saw a strong recovery in the last 15 minutes of near 8 cents to recover from steep losses. Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis closed up 11 3/4 cents for the May contract as the smaller spring wheat planted area from Friday's report continued to support. The turn higher in the other grains and a surge up in equity, gold and crude oil helped to support the bounce off of the early lows but the market remained moderately lower on the session into the mid-day. The outlook for a strong first reading for the weekly crop conditions reports for the update out after the close, a lack of freezing temperatures in the plains for the 2-week outlook and more rain across the central and southern plains for the middle of this week helped to pressure. Weakness in Russia wheat prices and talk that the surge higher on Friday was a bit overdone were all factors to help pressure. Taiwan is tendering to buy 41,650 tonnes of US wheat. Weekly export inspections came in at 15.4 million bushels which was below trade expectations and compares with 19.9 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the season. The International Grains Council pegged world wheat production for the 2012/13 season at 681 million tonnes, up 1 million from their previous estimate but down from 696 million last year. World consumption is pegged at 683 million tonnes. May Oats closed down 6 1/2 at 334 3/4. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 10 3/4 off the high.
Indonesia's Sulawesi March cocoa bean exports fall 69 pct y/y -industry
JAKARTA, April 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's cocoa bean exports from its main growing island of Sulawesi slumped in March due to a combination of wet weather conditions and cocoa farmers switching to more profitable crops.
Sulawesi cocoa exports fell 69 percent to 3,505.66 tonnes in March from 11,132.01 tonnes a year ago and were down 56 percent from the previous month, Indonesia Cocoa Association data showed on Monday. February exports were at 7,917.7 tonnes.
India may not allow fresh cotton exports next week
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, March 30 (Reuters) - India is unlikely to allow fresh cotton exports when ministers meet next week and may not lift the ban at least until July, government and trade sources said.
The meeting on April 3 could approve only some of the 2.5 million bales which are in limbo, registered but not yet cleared by customs.
Cotton - Futures closed slightly lower in all but the October contract, which was 1 point higher. Futures finished in the upper end of today's trading range. Cotton futures faced followthrough fallout from last Friday's planting intentions from USDA. While cotton acreage is expected to be down sharply from year-ago, USDA's survey work showed producers plan to plant more cotton than anticipated. Plus, traders are anticipating better yields as conditions improve from last year's major drought through the South. (Source: CME)
Arabica Premium Seen Higher on Robusta Supply Surge: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
The premium paid for arabica beans favored by Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) over the robusta used by Nestle SA (NESN) may rally from a 20-month low because of a surge in supply from Vietnam, the biggest grower of the less costly coffee. Arabica fell 18 percent in New York this year on prospects for a record Brazilian crop as robusta rose 12 percent in London because of fewer cargoes from Vietnam. The premium dropped to 83.89 cents a pound on March 29, the lowest since July 2010. It will widen to $1.162 by the end of the year, the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows. Farmers in Vietnam have been stockpiling robusta as a hedge against consumer prices that surged 23 percent in August, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. With inflation moderating to 14 percent in March and harvests about to start in Indonesia and Brazil, they may now accelerate sales, the bank predicts.
Arabica is poised to rally 10 percent in the next three months, as drought in Brazil threatens the crop and demand from emerging markets strengthens, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. “People have focused on the shortage of robusta supplies, and that will change as the crops in Indonesia and Brazil come in and put pressure on the Vietnamese farmers to release their record crop,” said Keith Flury, an analyst at Rabobank in London. “The market is also seriously underestimating how tight the arabica supply-and-demand balance will be.”
ANRPC revises down 2012 rubber output to 10.42 mln T
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Global natural rubber output is forecast to rise 1.1 percent to 10.420 million tonnes in 2012, but the increase is lower than an earlier estimate because of heavy rains in plantations in Malaysia and China, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said on Monday.
"In Malaysia, unseasonal rains for almost a month from 14 February onwards have disrupted harvesting of trees," the group said in a statement.
India releases 4.5 mln tonnes non-levy sugar for Apr-June
MUMBAI, March 31 (Reuters) - India has allowed millers to sell 4.5 million tonnes of sugar from April to June in the open market, up 6 percent from the previous quarter, to meet increased demand in summer, a government statement said.
The quantity of non-levy, or free-sale sugar, that millers can sell on the open market is fixed by the federal government. The quota will now be decided every quarter, instead of monthly.
Ivory Coast cocoa crop outlook reduced -ICCO
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador, March 30 (Reuters) - The world's biggest cocoa producer Ivory Coast is forecast to harvest 1.3 million tonnes in the 2011/2012 season, an official with the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) said on Friday.
This was down from the organization's 2010/11 estimate of 1.511 million tonnes.
Jamaica sugar production rises in early harvest
KINGSTON, March 30 (Reuters) - Jamaica produced 29 percent more sugar in the first two months of the present harvest than it did during the same period last year, the Central Bank reported.
Sugar production totaled 34,900 tonnes from mid-December to mid-February, up from 27,000 tonnes for the first two months of last year's harvest, the Bank of Jamaica reported on Thursday.
Euro Coal-Prices rise, Asian buying calms market
LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices rose by nearly $2 a tonne on Friday following Xstrata's first quarterly term settlement at $115 FOB Newcastle to Japanese utilities and absorption of surplus coal by South Korea.
"The panic's over for now. Nobody's dumping coal like they were recently," one European utility said.
Asia Coal-Australian prices inch up with demand
PERTH, March 30 (Reuters) - Australia's thermal coal price benchmark rose slightly to $107 a tonne this week, as protracted annual price negotiations between miner Xstrata and Japanese utilities continued and some Chinese demand returned to the market.
Australia's Newcastle index for the week to date closed at $107.01 per tonne on Thursday, up from $104.81 a week earlier.
Oil Drops After Biggest Gain in Six Weeks on Outlook for Supply (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil dropped after the biggest gain in six weeks as a forecast for rising inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of crude, signaled fuel demand may be faltering. Futures slid as much as 0.4 percent in New York. Crude stockpiles probably rose a second week to the highest level since August, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Prices advanced yesterday after U.S. manufacturing in March expanded at a faster pace than forecast. Oil has climbed this year amid concern tension with Iran will disrupt global supplies. “Demand has been so subdued for many months now and we can’t really see that picking up,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. Oil prices are at this level because of Iran, and “traders aren’t willing to let go of that risk premium,” he said.
Oil for May delivery slid as much as 43 cents to $104.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $105.06 at 11:21 a.m. Sydney time. It climbed 2.2 percent yesterday to $105.23, the highest close since March 28. Prices are 6.3 percent higher this year. Brent oil for May settlement fell 28 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $125.15 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York- traded West Texas Intermediate was at $20.09, compared with $20.20 yesterday, the most since Oct. 20.
Japan, not Iran, may be oil market's focus in April
--Robert Campbell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - The showdown between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear program remains the overarching risk facing oil markets but in the near term, nuclear power in Japan may well become the short term focus for traders.
The near total shutdown of Japan's nuclear power industry since last year's devastating earthquake and tsunami turned the Japanese electricity sector into a surprise source of oil demand growth in Asia last year.
Oil release now more likely
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Unless oil prices drop for other reasons, the United States and other governments appear set to release crude and product stocks from their strategic reserves before or during the summer in a bid to slow the rise in prices, avert an economic slowdown and sustain support for their strategy of sanctions on Iran.
The probability of a release is now more than 50 percent. The only remaining questions concern the timing and scale of releases; how many countries take part; whether they will receive support from other reserve holders such as China; and whether swing-producer Saudi Arabia will help the effort by maintaining higher than normal exports even as commercial inventories rise.
Oil near $123 on China economy, supply worries
LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - Oil held near $123 a barrel, supported by signs of an improving economy in China, and actual and threatened supply disruptions in the Middle East and Africa.
"The Chinese PMI numbers were much better than expected and that would have an impact on oil. This will help answer some of the questions over a potential hard landing in China," said Ben Le Brun, a market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.
S.Africa Iranian oil imports soar in Feb
JOHANNESBURG, April 2 (Reuters) - South African crude oil imports from Iran leapt in February to $364 million from zero the preceding month, customs data showed on Monday, dashing the view that Pretoria has bowed to U.S. pressure to curb commercial links with Tehran.
The Revenue Service said Africa's biggest economy imported 417,000 tonnes of Iranian crude in February, a dramatic reversal of a declining trend seen since October, when it imported 467,000 tonnes.
Russian oil output stable at 10.36 mln bpd in March
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Russian oil output stood at 10.36 million barrels per day in March, unchanged from a post-Soviet monthly high in February, Energy Ministry data showed on Monday.
Measured in tonnes, crude production in Russia, the world's top producer, was 43.8 million tonnes last month, the ministry said.
Iran helps Syria ship oil to China -sources, data
LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Iran is helping its ally Syria defy Western sanctions by providing a vessel to ship Syrian oil to a state-run company in China, potentially giving the government of President Bashar al-Assad a financial boost worth an estimated $80 million.
Iran, itself a target of Western sanctions, is among Syria's closest allies and has promised to do all it can to support Assad, recently praising his handling of the year-long uprising against Assad in which thousands have been killed.
MetalMiner - Copper Headed for Surplus (Source: CME)
By MetalMiner - Mon Apr 02 11:51:00 CDT 2012 CT
New and Improved Mine Capacities May End Ten Years of Price Support
Copper, the perennial driver of the China bull narrative, is beginning to look less firm in coming years than we have come to expect in the past. Building on a copper presentation we gave at the MetalMiner and Spend Matters Commodity EDGE conference in Chicago last week, we would like to step back from day-to-day copper movements and look at the longer term.
Iron Ore-Prices seen staying near 5-month top, China off
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Spot iron ore prices are likely to hover near five-month highs this week, with little activity seen in the physical market in the first three days, with China away for a public holiday.
Iron ore ended the first quarter up nearly 7 percent, rebounding from a decline of 19 percent in the last three months of 2011, supported by hopes demand from top importer China will strengthen as construction activity turns brisk after winter.
Baltic sea index rises on higher capesize rates
March 30 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, rose on Friday as rates for large capesize vessels climbed for a fourth straight day on higher iron ore activity.
The main index, which reflects the daily freight market rates of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, rose 4 points, or 0.43 percent, to 934 points.
No comments:
Post a Comment