Corn futures spent much of the day in positive territory, but softened around midday and finished at or near their daily lows with May and July futures 8 3/4 and 8 1/2 cents lower, respectively, and deferred months posting slightly lighter losses. Spillover from soybean futures helped corn futures to post gains for a good portion of the day, but ultimately, fundamentals won out, and the market softened into the close, with funds selling a net 10,000 contracts for the day. (Source: CME)
Corn Market Recap for 3/26/2012 (Source: CME)
Mon 26 Mar 2012 14:30:00 CT
May Corn finished down 8 3/4 at 637 3/4, 18 1/4 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. July Corn closed down 8 1/2 at 636. This was 1/4 up from the low and 16 3/4 off the high. May corn experienced the lowest close since March 8th and closed near the low end of a 19 cent range. The market was expected to open lower on continued good weather in the US but a surge higher in soybeans and a positive influence from outside market forces (gold, equity markets, US dollar) helped to support a strong rally into the mid-session. More soybean/corn spread activity on ideas that soybeans need to rally to attract acres helped to spark the aggressive selling from spread traders. December corn saw the lowest close since January 20th. Strength in wheat failed to provide much support and there was more talk of excellent early planting weather to help pressure. Weekly export inspections came in at 22.2 million bushels which was below trade expectations and compares with 31.36 million necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season. The COT report showed strong buying from fund traders last week to build their net long position. However, trend-following fund traders are now net long 197,756 contracts which some traders believed is showing an overbought condition. May Rice finished up 0.205 at 14.805, equal to the high and 0.145 up from the low.
Wheat futures closed mostly 4 to 6 cents higher in Chicago, mostly 4 to 5 cents higher in Kansas City and mostly 2 to 5 cents higher in Minneapolis. That was near the middle of today's range, including overnight trade, but in the lower end of the day session. Wheat futures were supported throughout the session by short-covering and weakness in the U.S. dollar index. (Source: CME)
Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
Mon 26 Mar 2012 14:27:00 CT
May Wheat finished up 5 1/4 at 659 1/2, 11 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 5 3/4 at 670 1/4. This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 10 off the high. May wheat closed moderately higher on the session but well off of the early highs. A steady flow of selling in corn helped pull the market off of the highs after a surge higher on short-covering early in the day. The break in the US dollar and some growing concerns for dryness in Western Europe helped to support a bounce early in the session. Fund trader short-covering helped drive the market sharply higher into the mid-session. US weather looks favorable but while traders see improving crop conditions for this afternoon's weekly update and maybe next week as well, there is more and more concern that the crop has advanced so fast that more and more of the crop is vulnerable to cold weather damage into mid-April and this may have helped to support some buying. More talk that the extended forecast models and dry and colder into the second week of April and traders fear the potential for some freeze damage. Weekly export inspections came in at just 15.26 million bushels which was well below the range of estimates and compared with 19.4 million necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season. May Oats closed down 1/4 at 332 3/4. This was 1/2 up from the low and 7 1/2 off the high.
GRAINS-Soy extends gains on poor crop outlook, corn, wheat ease
NEW DELHI, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans inched up after rising more than 1 percent in the previous session due to lingering concerns about the drought-induced cut in South American crops and signs U.S. farmers may plant more corn at the expense of the oilseed.
"The USDA is likely to lower its forecast for soy production in South America and that is the biggest support to prices in Chicago," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
U.S. corn area most in nearly 70 years
Chicago, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will soon be planting what could be the most corn acres since 1944 as profitable prices should have them favoring that crop versus others, and that push for acres will keep the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures market on investors' radar in coming months.
Old-crop corn futures contracts--May, July, and September-- are already at hefty premiums to new-crop months and may retain their bullish fervor because of the snug stocks. New-crop contracts may see pressure from the huge seedings and potential record crop...assuming normal growing weather.
U.S. soy acreage to rise after futures rally
CHICAGO, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will devote the fifth largest area ever to soybeans this spring as a futures market rally over the winter boosted enthusiasm for the crop.
The average of analysts' estimates for U.S. 2012 soybean plantings was 75.393 million acres, according to a Reuters survey of 25 market watchers. A year ago, soybean acreage was 74.976 million acres.
Philippines set to sign rice supply deal with Cambodia
MANILA, March 26 (Reuters) - The Philippines is close to signing a government-to-government rice supply agreement that would make Cambodia a potential supplier of the grain staple to Manila, along with Vietnam and Thailand, agriculture officials said on Monday.
The Southeast Asian neighbors aimed to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on rice supply in early April, similar to Manila's three-year deal with its major supplier Vietnam, Philippines Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala said.
Canada's Harper says Viterra bid not 'primarily' foreign
March 25 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Sunday that the structure of Glencore's C$6.1 billion ($6.1 billion) deal to buy No. 1 Canadian grain handler Viterra means it should not necessarily be seen as a full foreign takeover.
Harper's comments come as the Canadian government and regulators begin reviewing the offer by Swiss-based Glencore, already the world's No. 1 commodities trader. Glencore plans to acquire Viterra and then sell off some parts to Canada's Richardson International and Agrium .
Planting US corn early has minimal advantages-agronomists
March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. corn planted in the middle of April, which is the norm, is beneficial to yields while planting earlier than that generally results in a "flat yield response," according to agronomists at the University of Illinois at Champaign.
The hottest start to March since records began in 1871, with record-high temperatures for a week straight in Chicago, has had some U.S. Midwest farmers planting corn earlier than ever.
Italy wheat, maize plantings rise in 2012 -ISMEA
MILAN, March 23 (Reuters) - Italy, a major grain importer in the European Union, has planted more wheat for the 2012 crop and is expected to sow more maize this spring encouraged by high prices on local and international markets, the country's agricultural research centre ISMEA said.
Soft-wheat plantings for 2012 crops are estimated to have risen about 17 percent to 621,000 hectares (ha), with plantings jumping in major northern growing regions, ISMEA said on Friday in the latest estimate of Italian grain plantings.
Planting Corn Early Has Minimal advantages (Source: CME)
By Thomson Reuters - Mon 26 Mar 2012 12:27:47 CT
U.S. corn planted in the middle of April, which is the norm, is beneficial to yields while planting earlier than that generally results in a "flat yield response," according to agronomists at the University of Illinois at Champaign.
The hottest start to March since records began in 1871, with record-high temperatures for a week straight in Chicago, has had some U.S. Midwest farmers planting corn earlier than ever.
Russia-Sized Mistakes Driving Corn Prices to Limit: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
The gap between traders’ estimates of U.S. corn reserves, the world’s second-biggest, and official figures have reached the size of Russia’s annual consumption, increasing price swings at a time of near-record food costs. Analysts and traders missed numbers reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture by 225 million bushels (5.7 million tons) on average in the past seven quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s twice as much as in the previous five years and about equal to 12 months of Russian demand. The USDA releases its next quarterly inventory report March 30. Futures fluctuated by the maximum allowed on the Chicago Board of Trade after six of the past seven quarterly reports, with an average swing of 5.8 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Stockpiles (UGRSCNTO) are getting harder to predict as growers build more silos on their land rather than sending it to commercial grain elevators, making it more difficult to measure.
“Analysts’ errors have swung from too low to too high with increasing amplitude,” said William Tierney, the chief economist for Chicago-based research company AgResource Co. and a former USDA analyst. “The industry has to do a better job.”
High Crop Prices Pushing U.S. Farmers to Plant Record Acres (Source: CME)
By CME Group - Mon 26 Mar 2012 12:00:29 CT By Bruce Blythe
American farmers this year are poised to sink more corn and soybeans into the soil than they ever have, as historically high crop prices motivate the likes of Jerry Gulke, who operates about 700 acres near Rockford, Ill. “You’re going to plant every conceivable acre you can get your hands on,” Gulke, who also runs a market advisory service, the Gulke Group, said last week. “We could blow the lid off production this year, but we still have to plant the crop.” Gulke and other farmers are gearing up for what’s expected to be one of the most important growing seasons in memory. U.S. inventories of corn, the country’s biggest and most-valuable crop, are projected to reach a 16-year low late this summer, making it vital farmers come through with a bumper harvest that replenishes supplies and helps reign in food inflation.
Grain traders and analysts widely expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s upcoming Prospective Plantings report will confirm record crop acres and an outlook for big corn and soybean harvest as farmers seed their fields, to borrow an old Farm Belt axiom, “fencerow to fencerow.” The report is scheduled for release at 7:30 a.m. Central time March 30. “People are concerned about corn supplies that are essentially as tight as they’ve ever been,” said Sal Gilbertie, president of Portland, Me.-based Teucrium Trading LLC. Teucrium operates an exchange-traded fund based on CME Group corn futures. “We’re going to look to this crop report to see if we have the potential for corn to loosen up that balance sheet,” Gilbertie said in a March 22 phone interview. “We’re very susceptible to supply disruptions.” The report, Gilbertie added, will provide the “first glimpse” at the U.S. growing season. Midwest farmers typically begin sowing corn in mid-April.
Based on USDA and analysts’ projections, combined corn and soybean seedings will exceed 169 million acres this year. That would be an all-time high and account for more than 264,000 square miles, or enough to nearly cover the entire state of Texas. Prospective Plantings is typically one of the most-anticipated USDA crop reports every year among CME traders and others in U.S. agriculture. Gilbertie and others said interest in the acreage data seems to be particularly intense this year amid tight inventories and a record corn rally that sent futures near $8 a bushel last year. The Prospective Plantings forecasts are based on surveys of more than 85,000 farm operators conducted by the USDA during the first two weeks of March. In theory, the survey-based outlook more closely reflects eventual plantings than previous USDA projections based on the agency’s internal number-crunching.
In February, the USDA said it expected farmers to seed 94 million acres of corn in 2012, which would be up 2.3 percent from 2011 plantings and the highest since 1944. Soybean plantings were estimated at 75 million acres, little-changed from 2011. Both numbers could be slightly higher in the plantings report, several analysts and traders said.
USDA to Release Widely Anticipated Prospective Plantings Report on March 30th (Source: CME)
By CME Group - Mon 26 Mar 2012 09:15:40 CT
The USDA's Prospective Plantings Report is based on a survey of US farmers “intentions” as of early March and sets the stage for the upcoming 2012 crop season. The report will be “faded” by some traders because, after the survey was conducted, there was a surge in soybean prices (relative to corn). These traders believe that farmers will plant relatively more soybeans and less corn because of this recent change in relative prices. However, research shows that, in most years, farmers stick pretty close to their intentions EXCEPT when weather intervenes and prevents farmers from planting all their acreage or forces them switch to another crop. In addition, changes in foreign supply and demand are gaining increasing importance and can still shock the markets,
Chief Economist for AgResource, William Tierney Jr. PhD has written an article previewing the March 30, 2012, USDA Prospective Plantings Report, and will provide an in-depth look at the expectations and implications of this report in a simulcast on Tuesday, March 27th.
SOFTS-Raw sugar dips, coffee above 17-month low
LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE inched down early on Monday, with a focus on the outlook for the next crop in centre-south Brazil and a possible authorisation of further Indian exports.
Arabica coffee futures eased, standing just above Thursday's 17-month low, while cocoa inched down weighed by expectations for an ample mid crop in West Africa.
Vietnam March coffee exports up 18.3 pct y/y -Ag Min
HANOI, March 25 (Reuters) - Vietnam exported an estimated 190,000 tonnes, or 3.17 million bags, of coffee in March, up 18.3 percent year on year, well above market expectations, the Agriculture Ministry said on Sunday.
The estimate was lower than 202,000 tonnes shipped in February, the ministry said in a monthly report. Last March Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer after Brazil, exported 160,600 tonnes.
India could allow 1 mln T sugar exports -sources
NEW DELHI, March 23 (Reuters) - Indian ministers could allow a further one million tonnes of sugar exports when they meet on March 26, a government source and traders said, just ahead of top producer Brazil's entry into the market next month when global prices could tumble.
India, the world's top consumer and the second-biggest producer, has allowed two million tonnes of sugar exports so far in the season that began on Oct. 1.
May cotton futures led price gains, rising 128 points. Deferred futures closed mostly around 70 points higher. All contracts ended near session highs. Cotton futures pulled strength from weakness in the U.S. dollar index today. That encouraged traders to cover short positions as the market tries to recovery from the recent lows. (Source: CME)
Petra Foods sees 2011/12 cocoa market balanced
SINGAPORE, March 23 (Reuters) - Singapore chocolate maker Petra Foods expects global cocoa supply to meet demand in the current crop year, but stagnating cocoa output could lead to deficits in the coming years, its Chief Executive Officer said on Friday.
Petra, the world's third-largest supplier of cocoa ingredients, sees global cocoa consumption growing at 2 percent in the crop year to September 2012, but prices will have to rise to encourage farmers to grow more cocoa, John Chuang told Reuters.
Brent oil edges below $125 as Sudan may resume output
SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Brent crude edged below $125 as a possible resumption in crude production from South Sudan offset supply worries stemming from news of a sizeable drop in Iranian oil exports due to Western sanctions.
"The geopolitical risk has been overly built into oil prices as we are in a low demand period where inventories are rising," said Tony Nunan, a Tokyo-based risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Global oil outages at 1.2 mln bpd in March-survey
LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Global oil supply outages are running at more than a million barrels a day, a Reuters survey has found, helping provide justification for the United States and Britain should they release strategic reserves in a bid to cut oil prices.
Civil unrest, adverse weather and technical glitches disrupted 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of global oil output in March on the 90 million bpd world market, according to a Reuters calculation from information provided by companies, government agencies and traders.
Oil Trades Near Three-Day High After Bernanke Speech (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the highest level in three days in New York on speculation fuel demand will rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled interest rates will be kept low enough to stimulate the U.S. economy. Futures were little changed after rising a second day yesterday. Reducing the jobless rate will probably require a quicker expansion of business production and consumer demand, which “can be supported by continued accommodative policies,” Bernanke said in a speech in Arlington, Virginia. U.S. crude stockpiles probably rose to a six-month high last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Prices have gained this year amid concern that tension with Iran will disrupt supplies.
“Oil is at these levels because Bernanke is going to keep interest rates lower,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity markets newsletter in Sydney. “There’s this premium built into the price with Iran. The news that’ll push oil through $110 can only be one thing” and that’s a military strike, he said. Oil for May delivery was at $107.05 a barrel, up 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:16 p.m. Sydney time. It gained 16 cents yesterday to $107.03, the highest close since March 21. Prices are 8.3 percent higher this year and headed for a second straight quarterly gain.
Asia Coal-Australian prices steady, Chinese on sidelines
SHANGHAI, March 26 (Reuters) - Australia's thermal coal price benchmark was flat this week at just above $105 a tonne as Chinese buyers remained on the sidelines and annual price negotiations between Japanese utilities and miners dragged on.
"For now, Chinese buyers are more interested in U.S. thermal coal than Australian but that market could start getting priced out if freight prices rise," said a Beijing-based trader.
Euro Coal-Prices stable but outlook more bearish
LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Prices of prompt physical coal were little changed for a fifth day, with bids and offers far apart and no fresh trades reported.
"Everybody was hoping for prices to recover and it's been a slow realisation that it isn't happening -- now it's looking a bit more bearish," one utility source said.
Iron Ore-Shanghai rebar nears two-month high, inventory slips
SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - China's benchmark steel futures partially rebounded to approach a two-month high on Monday, after a drop in the country's imported iron ore inventory spurred buying from speculators.
"Market conditions are improving generally. We're seeing continuous drawdown of inventory," said Graeme Train, an analyst with Macquarie in Shanghai.
U.S. goes after China sinks in latest import probe
WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - The United States already has punitive duties on steel pipe, pencils, electric blankets and bedsprings from China. Now it is investigating if imports of stainless steel sinks from the world's second-largest economy are sold at unfairly low prices.
The U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said it was launching the probe in response to a petition from Elkay Manufacturing, a nearly century-old Illinois company that accuses its Chinese competitors of "dumping" the sinks in the United States at below fair market value.
Cars Sent to U.S. Rise Most Since ‘06 Aiding Wilhelmsen: Freight (Source: Bloomberg)
The fastest growth in U.S. demand for imported cars since 2006 is boosting rates for the vessels delivering them, spurring analysts to predict a 68 percent gain in profit for Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA, the largest fleet operator. Americans will buy 3.07 million imported light vehicles in 2012, 7.8 percent more than in 2011 and the biggest advance in six years, according to data compiled by Kevin Tynan, an automotive analyst at Bloomberg Industries. Global sales growth of 10 percent will boost daily shipping rates by 13 percent to a four-year high of $17,000, estimates RS Platou Markets AS, an investment bank in Oslo. Shares of Wilhelmsen will rise 29 percent to 48.90 kroner ($8.59) in 12 months, the average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
An accelerating U.S. economy is boosting demand for car carriers at a time when global shipments are already expanding faster than the fleet. The global cargo forecast from Platou is more than twice this year’s 4.3 percent fleet growth seen by London-based Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker. That contrasts with most other types of vessels, where gains in capacity are outstripping additional shipments. “As the market continues a more pronounced recovery in 2012, that’s additional volume that hasn’t been there for several years,” said Jeff Schuster, the senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive, a Troy, Michigan-based research company producing seven-year outlooks for global vehicle sales. “The car-carrier business is going to benefit along with this market recovery.”
Baltic sea index rises, smaller vessels firm
March 23 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, rose further on Friday as three-year low rates in the capesize market were countered by higher rates for smaller vessels.
"The BDI has been slowly climbing higher over the past two months, but even 2,000 points seems like a mountainous journey given that it took 35 trading days to go from 650 points to 900," Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth said.
No comments:
Post a Comment