KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - Following are estimates on palm oil prices and other edible oil markets from leading analysts at the Bursa Malaysia conference that ends on Wednesday.
DORAB MISTRY, ANALYST AND TRADER, GODREJ
PRICE OUTLOOK
Soft U.S. dollar will continue until end of 2012. Brent crude prices to range between $100 to $120.
Expects palm oil prices to peak at $1,250 FOB, or about 4,000 ringgit, by the end of June 2012, thanks to low output cycle, demand from India in peak summer months and stocking by Muslim countries ahead of fasting observance in July.
See a pullback after June with prices remaining in a band of $1,150 to $1,200 FOB. Prices seen declining only after there is evidence that the low cycle is ending, around November 2012.
For the second half, it depends on production. Based on this prognosis, in terms of refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein, April-May-June and July-August-September should trade at a considerable inverse to October-November-Decembt.
Expects degummed soyoil to peak at between $1,250 and $1,300 FOB. Sees Chicago bean oil futures to climb to 60 cents despite the improvement in meal prices on limited acreage for U.S. soybeans and strong soyoil use in South American biofuel sector.
Expects lauric oils to trade higher than at present. Coconut oil will go to a discount to crude palm kernel oil (CPKO) and should trade to a high of $1,550 CIF Rotterdam. CPKO will peak at $1,700 CIF Rotterdam.
GLOBAL SUPPLY/DEMAND
Global demand growth seen at 6 million tonnes in the current Oct-Sept crop year, compared to 5.3 million tonnes rise in edible oil production.
Demand from the food sector up as world economic growth seen rising by three percent although high prices will limit the demand growth to 3 million tonnes. As for biodiesel industry growth, issues in Iran will boost prices and lift the appeal of renewable energy.
SUPPLY FACTORS- PALM OIL
Crude palm oil output will be the single most important factor driving edible oil prices in 2012. Biological high cycle for palm oil production ended in December and there are now signs of tree stress.
The new low cycle will result in flat output for 2012. From March onwards, output each month will be less on a year-on-year comparison. Low cycle will end in November this year.
Keeps same estimate for Malaysian 2012 production which first issued in December. Output seen flat between 18.6-19 million tonnes. (Official Malaysian forecast is 19.3 million tonnes versus 18.9 million tonnes in 2011).
Estimates Indonesian production will be higher by about 1.4 million and will reach 26.5 million tonnes this year on maturing acreage.Official Indonesian forecast is an increase of 14 percent to 25.7 million tonnes.[ID:nL3E8C933G]
Says Malaysia's move to continue tax-free export quota for crude palm oil "can be a clever strategy if they will keep releasing more quota from time to time.
Says more Malaysian crude palm oil exports will keep stocks down and keep futures high although refineries and oleochemical plants will become idle like its biodiesel industry.
Other option is to adopt a carbon copy of the Indonesian export tax regime where tariffs of refined grade are half of that of the crude grade and do away completely with the duty-free export quota for crude palm oil.
Consumers like India, China and Pakistan unlikely to retaliate against Indonesia's tax change to protect their own refining sector as inflation in these countries remain high.
INDIA
Greater food demand to come from India's plan for a massive food security programme that will guarantee minimum amounts of cereals and food to each citizen at subsidised prices.
"When implemented it will create a large further burden of food subsidies and will also increase total Indian consumption of food grains. It is a bold step but one which is not before time."
India's edible consumption seen at a record 13.18 kilogram per capita in the current crop year, up 1.7 percent from a year ago that represents slowing growth due to high prices of vegetable oils.
India likely to buy a record 7.2 million tonnes of palm oil in Nov-Oct oil marketing year, up 8 percent from a year earlier. Soyoil imports seen flat at one million tonnes.
India's total vegetable oil imports to rise 9.3 percent to 9.48 million tonnes from a year ago on lower domestic production of rapeseed and stagnant yields.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THOMAS MIELKE, EDITOR, OIL WORLD
PRICE FORECAST
"Under the lead of soybean oil, I expect vegetable oil prices to appreciate in the coming months. Although we have already appreciated quite considerably since January, we could see another increase in soybean oil prices by $80-$100 until the end of June, driving up also palm oil and other vegetable oils.
"For palm oil, there is an interesting development shaping up for April-September, following an unusually big increase in production and exports until March, the past 12 months until this March, the growth in production and exports in April-September, will be very small."
"This isn't in the market yet -- this is price supportive. Our price forecasts for the calendar year -- we will make a new record for the average of calendar year 2012 in palm oil and soybean oil."
"RBD palm olein for Malaysia $1,180. Crude palm Rotterdam $1,150. Argentine soybean oil $1,250. The premium of lauric oils relative to palm oil will narrow. My preliminary forecast for palm kernel oil is $1,400."
INDIA AND CHINA
"A slowing down of the soybean crush, will create some additional bullish potential for oils and fats. Now we are at a point where prices are in an uptrend, and I would like to point that this uptrend will be continuing and that we're going to face a relatively tight outlook for April-June, with appreciating palm oil prices within the next three months.
"Despite the boost in palm oil (output), prices weakened only slightly and already bottomed at $950 and is now moving upward, and we're not yet at the highs - prices are likely to go further up."
"India and China, the two major net importing areas, both countries need considerably more palm oil in the current season. They need approximately (extra) 2 million tonnes of oils and fats imports every year, to satisfy their demand."
"The price outlook is for higher prices, despite a further increase in palm (production) by more than 2 million tonnes."
SOYBEAN OUTLOOK:
"Soybean and rapeseed production are declining - first time ever that this has happened. We are going to see a global production deficit of around 14 million tones in the current season. Production is declining and stocks are declining.
"Quite a bullish scenario, and this is happening mainly in soybeans. For the first time ever, global soybean production is going to decline by approximately 20 million tonnes. The drought is over, weather conditions have improved but the improvement came too late."
"Very poor crop in Paraguay, very poor crop in Brazil, and now the problem is too much rain rather than insufficient."
"Soybean prices move higher, and what we've seen over the past eight weeks is a beginning but its not all of the price impact. We could see, after a temporary setback, we should see higher prices in the second half of March, probably early April."
PALM OUTPUT
"Over the past 20 years world (palm oil) production more than doubled, but it's still not yet sufficient to satisfy demand. Is palm oil production rising sufficiently? It is very clear, due to biodiesel programs in South America, we need accelerating growth in palm. (For) outlook for 2012, we believe there will be a slowing down of the
"(Production) growth here in Malaysia after last year's very good increase in yields and production. We now look at a more moderate growth of 0.4-0.5 million tones � most of this already occurring in January-March."
"Indonesia, our very preliminary estimate (is) 1.6 million tones growth to approximately 25.5 million tones in production this year. This means a global increase of approximately 2.3 million tones in 2012, this is not enough to offset insufficient production of other vegetable oils."
"We need at least 78 million tones of palm in 2020 (and) I doubt that the expansions programs currently in place in new plantings, are on track to reach this estimate."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
JAMES FRY, CHAIRMAN, LMC INTERNATIONAL
PRICE FORECAST
Says if today's high crude oil prices will stay for the year and Indonesian export subsidies for refiners set the seasonal floor to Malaysian palm oil stocks at 1.85 million tonnes, Bursa Malaysia palm oil price this year will average 3,250 ringgit ($1,073), with the average palm kernel oil price 530 ringgit higher.
says if stocks are 0.3 million tonnes lower (at 1.55 million) at the low point, then the average CPO price is 3,350 ringgit.
says if Brent crude price falls steadily towards $86 per barrel by the end of the year, then the average crude palm oil price over the course of 2012 will be 2,870 ringgit.
says if there is an Iranian nuclear crisis, leading to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the 2012 average crude palm oil price will be 3,190 ringgit, but with a low of 1,870 ringgit.
INDONESIA EXPORT TAX
Says Malaysian stocks inextricably linked to events in Indonesia. End-month palm oil stocks were the highest ever for January in both countries.
Says Malaysian government has signalled "business as usual" in setting the crude palm oil tax-free export quota at 3.6 million tonnes this year;
Says this is the year when market should see impact of the new export tax regime in Indonesia with its incentives for refiners.
Malaysian refined oil exporters will have to concede market share to Indonesia. This will push more of the world stocks onto Malaysia.
PALM OIL OUTPUT
Revises estimates of Indonesian crude palm oil output. Output seen at 22.2 million tonnes in 2010, 25.15 million last year and 27.6 million tonnes this year.
For Malaysia, keeps 2012 forecast at 18.9 million tonnes unchanged from the previous year. ($1 = 3.027 ringgit)
No comments:
Post a Comment