Palm Oil Seen Rising 8% to Year High as Drought Wilts South American Crops (Source: Bloomberg)
Palm oil may advance 7.8 percent by mid-April to the highest level in a year as cooking-oil demand outstrips supply, according to TransGraph Consulting Pvt. Chairman Nagaraj Meda, who has forecast prices for 13 years. Stockpiles of soybeans, crushed to make a substitute oil, will decline after dry weather hurt crops in Brazil and Argentina, said Meda, who’s also managing director of Hyderabad, India-based TransGraph, an industry adviser. Palm oil may climb to 3,500 ringgit ($1,159) from 3,246 ringgit now, before sliding to 2,800 ringgit after July as prospects for the U.S. soybean harvest become clearer, he said. Palm oil, used in everything from candy bars to biofuel, rallied last month by the most since December 2010 after drought cut South American crops. Meda’s forecast for a near-term gain is less bullish than a prediction from industry veteran Dorab Mistry, who’s set to update his outlook at a conference this week in Malaysia, the second-largest producer.
There was positive price momentum following damage to the soybean crop, Meda said in a phone interview on March 1. Economic-stimulus packages in developed nations including Europe had also helped to boost demand, he said.
Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean prices retreat, ending lower for the first time in 11 trading days as traders take profits. Prices have been on an escalator for the past six weeks on a drought-plagued Brazil crop and optimism about growing US export demand. But with no fresh supportive news on either front today, profit-taking weighed. Traders also note unwinding of long soybean/short corn spread trades. Analysts say uncertainty ahead of Friday's USDA report could limit upside in grains and soy this week. CBOT May soybeans end down 8c to $13.25 a bushel.
Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
May soybean oil ends down 0.35c to 53.73c/lb. May soybean meal ends down $0.90 to $358.20 per short ton.
Palm oil eases ahead of key price outlook meeting
KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped as traders await a key price outlook meeting in Kuala Lumpur this week at which analysts are expected to paint a bullish picture for the sector. Prices rose more than six percent in February alone, setting the stage for upbeat price outlooks at the Bursa Malaysia conference, given strong demand from India and China and prospects of lower soyoil supply from drought hit South America.
"Trading interest is dull as market players are waiting for cues from the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "Also, most external markets are quiet after huge moves last week."
China 2012 rapeseed output 13-14 mln tonnes-COFCO chairman
BEIJING, March 4 (Reuters) - China's rapeseed output for 2012 is expected to be between 13 and 14 million tonnes, the chairman of the nation's top state-owned grains trader COFCO said on Sunday, marking a slight increase from its estimated 2011/12 harvest.
But Ning Gaoning said China's corn imports for 2012 are likely to hold steady or even slip from a year ago due to a bumper harvest at home, while soybean imports should rise further this year.
Informa cuts Brazil soy forecast on dry weather
CHICAGO, March 2 (Reuters) - Informa Economics lowered its forecast of Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop to 68 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 70 million, trade sources said on Friday.
Informa officials had no comment on the numbers, but in a report to clients the private analytical firm attributed the cuts to warm and dry weather in southern Brazil that stressed soybean crops during pod setting, a key phase of growth.
India's palm imports to rise as rapeseed output slumps
KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 (Reuters) - Palm imports by the world's top buyer India will rise about 8 percent in the current marketing year ending October 2012, an industry official said on Monday, adding that a consortium of Indian companies were looking to buy land in South America for soybean production.
A slump in domestic vegetable oil crops and robust demand, will buoy palm oil buys this year, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, told Reuters.
Indonesia refining advantage to dominate palm oil meeting
KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 (Reuters) - Top palm producer Indonesia's growing refining advantage over No. 2 supplier Malaysia will dominate an annual gathering of the world's palm oil business in Kuala Lumpur next week as traders examine shifts in demand.
Planters, refiners and bankers gather for the Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Conference from Monday to Wednesday as the market for the tropical oil grows this year at the expense of soyoil, with the South American soy crop damaged by drought.
Plantation: Palm oil consumption to double this year, says RSPO
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) foresees total global sustainable palm oil consumption to double this year from 5% last year, given the increasing demand and awareness. Secretary-General Darrel Webber said Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO) global production would also increase in tandem with the expected consumption upscale. He said, with multinationals and world's largest palm oil buyers pledging to source for RSPO certified palm oil by 2015, the consumption trend has already begun, which is expected to mirror in the increased sustainable palm oil consumption foreseen this year. (Bernama)
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Palm oil prices are likely to receive support in the next few months from firm crude oil prices and demand for vegetable oils from China and India, Vasanth Subramanian, senior vice president of agricultural commodities supplier Olam International Ltd. (O32.SG), said Tuesday. Palm oil will likely trade in a range of MYR3,000-MYR3,300 a metric ton for the next few months, Subramanian said on the sidelines of an industry conference.
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