[Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: A decline in palm oil inventories in October, when the market expected an increase, is positive for crude palm oil prices, Goldman Sachs says. It notes the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported October palm oil inventories declined 1.6% on-month to 2.1 million tons from their 21-month high. The house notes October production was slightly ahead of its expectations, but it has likely peaked and is likely to decline seasonally until a February trough, with inventories set to head lower in November.
Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures closed down, dropping to one-month low on concerns about slow export demand and favorable South American crop conditions. The US may have more export competition than normal from a nearly ideal start to Brazil's growing season, analysts say. Despite solid weekly export sales this week, soybean sales are running well below last year, a feature that fails to justify higher prices, analysts add. CBOT Jan soy end down 18c at $11.67 1/2/bushel.
Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures stumbled in unison with soybeans. Soymeal and soyoil slumped on concerns about soybean export demand and outlooks for greater availability of soy supplies for crushing into soy products, analysts say. CBOT Dec soymeal end down $5.20 at 297.90/short ton; Dec soyoil fell 0.47c to 5.52c/lb.
China October Soybean Imports Fall To 7-Month Low (Source: CME)
China's soybean imports in October fell to a seven-month low, as domestic crushers delayed shipments, preferring to wait for global prices to fall further amid sluggish domestic sales, analysts said. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed October exports were 40% lower than the Ministry of Commerce's 6.39 million-metric-ton forecast. The ministry is forecasting November soybean imports of 5.17 million metric tons, based on importers' reports. "Many domestic crushers asked to delay shipments amid a sharp decline in CBOT [Chicago Board of Trade] prices in September," said Tu Xuan, an analyst with agricultural consultancy Shanghai JC Intelligence, noting that many market participants were expecting increased availability of U.S. soybeans, and hence lower prices in the near term. October soybean imports totaled of 3.81 million tons, down 8% from September, but up 2% from a year earlier, the customs data showed.
Imports usually dip in October due to delayed customs clearances as a result of the weeklong National Day holiday at the start of the month. Total imports from January to October fell 5.4% to 41.52 million tons, Customs said. Besides price factors, crushers may have delayed, or even canceled, shipments due to poor domestic sales of feedmeal and soyoil, Zheshang Futures analyst Xu Wenjie said. The government's massive sales of state soybean and edible oil reserves resulted in negative profit margins for crushers over the last nine months and also led to a high inventories of imported soybeans at ports. In the marketing year that ended Sept. 30, China sold 2.1 million tons of edible oil and 2.6 million tons of soybeans from state reserves, the state-backed China National Grain and Oils Information Center has said.
China Oct soy imports fell to 7-month low at 3.81 mln T-Customs
BEIJING, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 3.81 million tonnes of soybeans in October, down 7.7 percent from 4.13 million tonnes in September, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed on Thursday.
October imports were the lowest since March and also below forecasts by analysts and the commerce ministry, which had predicted a level slightly higher than 4 million tonnes. Traders and analysts blamed the lower number on delayed customs clearance.
Brazil to top U.S. in global soybean trade battle
CHICAGO/SAO PAULO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Brazil will wrest the mantle of world's top soybean exporter from the United States in the coming year, U.S. government data showed on Wednesday, the latest sign of America's slowly diminishing role in global food trade.
Just months after data showed the United States would supply less than half of all corn exports for the first time in 40 years, revised Department of Agriculture forecasts put Brazil as the No. 1 exporter of soybeans for the first time in six years and the second time ever.
Brazil gov sees lower soy, higher corn crop output
SAO PAULO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's soybean crop could suffer its biggest annual drop in decades, the government said on Wednesday, the same day the USDA said Brazilian soy exports this season would overtake those from the United States, the long standing leader.
Drawn by the appealing price of corn and faced with potentially irregular weather from La Nina, local soy producers are likely to harvest 71.48 million to 72.96 million tonnes of soy in the 2011/12 crop, down from October's estimate of 72.18-73.29 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry's crop supply agency Conab said.
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