China’s economy probably grew the least in almost two years last quarter, contributing to a global weakening that Premier Wen Jiabao confronts with more limited scope for policy response than during the 2008 world recession. The government is forecast to report 13 July gross domestic product rose 9.3% from a year before, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, down from 9.7% the previous quarter. With data showing consumer prices climbed the most in three years in June, any easing in the central bank’s monetary stance risks escalating price pressures. (Bloomberg)
China: Trade surplus hits seven-month high in June as imports slow. China's trade surplus widened more than forecast to USD 22.3b in June. The surplus was USD 13.1b the previous month and USD 20b a year earlier.
(Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Part-time pay drop signals weak rebound
Wages for part-time workers have dropped, pointing to broader downturns in salaries and employment that will probably curb consumer spending just as a recovery from the 11 March earthquake and tsunami was taking hold. Manufacturers, whose exports have been the driving force of the world’s third-largest economy, have started recovering from the March temblor, according to some data. Industrial production rose at the fastest pace in more than 50 years in May from a month earlier and declines in retail sales have also eased -- supporting predictions that the economy would start growing again by year’s end. Cash earnings, a measure of all workers’ pay, rose 1.1% in May from a year earlier, the first gain in three months, the Labor Ministry said. The increase may have been exaggerated by one-time payouts companies made to people who worked after the disaster. (Bloomberg)
Japan: Current account surplus narrowed in May. The gap shrank 51.7% YoY to JPY 590.7b (USD 7.3b), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo. The surplus decreased 69.5% YoY in April. (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia: Central bank may refrain from raising rates on slowing inflation
Indonesia’s central bank will probably keep interest rates unchanged for a fifth month after inflation eased, delaying an increase as risks emerge of a slowdown in global growth. Bank Indonesia will hold its reference rate at 6.75%, according to all 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a decision due in Jakarta tomorrow. Policy makers last increased borrowing costs in February, the only move this year. The Rupiah is the second-biggest gainer in Asia this year, helping cap import costs and restrain inflation. That has allowed central bank Governor Darmin Nasution to extend Indonesia’s pause in monetary tightening as Europe’s debt crisis and slowing US growth threaten Asia’s exports, even as neighbors from Thailand to India and China kept raising rates. (Bloomberg)
India: Indian exports climbed 46.4% in June, rate pressure remains
India’s export growth slowed in June from a seven-year high, according to figures released by the commerce ministry’s top bureaucrat, an easing that may be insufficient to prevent further interest-rate increases. Merchandise shipments from the country rose 46.4% to USD29.2bn in June from a year earlier, commerce secretary Rahul Khullar said in New Delhi. Exports jumped 56.9% in May from a year earlier, the biggest gain since March 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from previously reported figures. India’s central bank may continue to increase interest rates until inflation is “under control,” K.C. Chakrabarty, a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said in New Delhi. The Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee said inflation may have accelerated in June even after gains in food prices moderated. (Bloomberg)
Germany: Exports increased more than economists forecast in May, adding to signs the sovereign debt crisis isn't harming Europe's largest economy. Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, increased 4.3% MoM from April, when they fell 5.6% MoM. Imports rose 3.7% MoM from the previous month. (Source: Bloomberg)
US: Payrolls rise 18,000, unemployment rate climbs to 9.2%
US employers added 18,000 workers in June, the fewest in nine months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed, indicating a struggling labor market. The increase in payrolls followed a 25,000 gain that was less than half the rise initially estimated, Labor Department data showed in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for a June gain of 105,000. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2%, the highest level this year. Hiring by companies, which excludes government agencies, was the weakest since May 2010. (Bloomberg)
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