Soy Oil chart reading : side way range bound little upside biased.
Reuters Survey :
Malaysia May 2011 Crude Palm Oil
- Exports seen up 5.1% at 1.4 million tonnes from May 2011
- Stocks seen up 11.3% at 1.86 million tonnes from May 2011
- Output seen up 11.1% at 1.7 million tonnes from May 2011
Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures finish higher as traders worry rains will prevent farmers from planting, keeping inventories tight. Northern Plains states like North Dakota are expected to stay wet after weeks of delays to field work. "There's growing confidence that they're not going to get near the beans planted that the market had hoped," says Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading. Rising cash prices add support to futures as processors search for soy supplies, he notes. CBOT July soybeans rise 7 1/2c to $14.14 1/2 a bushel.
Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
US soy-product futures settle mixed, as soymeal rises with soybeans on supply concerns. Processors of the oilseed are paying higher prices for soy due to tight inventories. They crush soybeans to make soymeal, used for animal feed. "If you can't get the beans, then you can't make the meal," says Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading. Soyoil prices weaken as reserve supplies are more plentiful. CBOT July soymeal climbs $2.40 to $368.40/short ton, while July soyoil drops 0.18c to 58.73c/pound.
Poor Rapeseed Crop, China Demand To Hit EU Biofuel Refiners (Source: CME)
European Union biofuels refiners face sharp rises in the cost of oilseeds into next year as a slump in regional output and rising demand from China keep world supplies tight, analysts said. The European November rapeseed contract on the NYSE Liffe exchange has risen nearly 16% from the low of EUR410.50 a ton touched on May 6 as fears for the crop have increased. At 1210 GMT, it was up EUR1.75 on the day at EUR480.75/ton. Poor winter planting and the worst drought to hit Europe for decades are expected to cut Europe's rapeseed crop by 1.5 million metric tons to as little as 19 million tons in the 2011-12 season, said analyst David Eudall of the U.K.'s Home Grown Cereals Authority. In Germany, the EU's largest rapeseed grower, the harvest is expected to fall to 4.5-4.8 million tons this year as the dry weather takes its toll on already under-developed crops, said grain merchant Toepfer International.
Productivity in the region's other major agricultural powers is also expected to decline, with France's rapeseed yields forecast to fall 4.3% on year to 3.1 tons a hectare and the U.K.'s a whopping 8.1% to 3.2 tons/hectare, according to May estimates from the EU's crop monitoring body. The HGCA's Eudall said the fall in production is expected to hit the EU's biodiesel production hub Germany hardest. The country has a capacity of around five million tons a year--almost a quarter of the EU's 21.9 million-ton biodiesel sector--according to the EU biodiesel association EBB. "The majority of crop losses are being seen in Germany and what's made it worse is that last year there was a fire in one of their crushing plants which is expected to come back online," he said. Demand for biodiesel, which is blended with fossil fuels to create a more environmentally-friendly form of transport fuel, however, is expected to remain firm as EU regulations mandating the use of sustainable fuels come into force.
Refiners will have to boost imports to make up for the domestic shortfall, said Eudall. He forecast shipments from Australia will rise 800,000 tons on year to around two million tons, while Ukraine and Russia will also boost exports. Soyoil from the U.S. and Brazil could make up some of the deficit as well, which he said is expected to peak in early 2012. "It looks like we're going to need about 1.5 million tons in the first and second quarters of 2012," he said. Demand from China, however, is likely to create headaches for Europe's hard-pressed refiners.
Palm oil extends winning streak on demand, weather
KUALA LUMPUR, June 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil extended gains for a second day over concerns of adverse weather hurting the U.S. soy crop, which gets crushed into competing soyoil, and prospects of strong demand in the coming months.
"We are entering a weather market and with palm oil demand set to grow stronger, there is much price upside," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
China's soymeal exports rise, sells up to 80,000 T
SINGAPORE, June 3 (Reuters) - China has sold up to 80,000 tonnes of soymeal to Japan and Vietnam in deals signed in the last two weeks, about double the level shipped in April, as slow domestic demand prompts soybean processors to look for overseas markets, traders said.
"There is supply push in China. Indian prices are much higher and monsoon is likely to slow exports," said one executive with an international trading company in Singapore. "Given the situation in India and China, it makes sense for China to export."
Argentine April soy crushing up 0.8 pct yr/yr
BUENOS AIRES, June 2 (Reuters) - Argentina is the world's top supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the third-biggest exporter of unprocessed beans.
The Agriculture Ministry said that in the first four months of the year Argentina processed 10.9 million tonnes of soybeans versus 8.5 million in the same period last year.
Soy crop gathered in Argentina's top growing areas
BUENOS AIRES, June 2 (Reuters) - Farmers in Argentina's main soy belt finished harvesting 2010/11 crops over the last week, leaving only a few areas in marginal growing areas to be cut, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
The South American country is the world's No. 1 soymeal and soyoil exporter, as well as its third-biggest soybean supplier. The 2010/11 crop is expected to come in at 49.2 million tonnes, according to the exchange.
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