Soy product futures ended mixed, with soyoil climbing at the expense of soymeal on fears of tightening global vegoil supplies. The soyoil market also garnered support from a strong export demand base, analysts said. Soymeal slipped lower on oil/meal spreading. December soyoil settled 0.08 cents or 0.2% higher at 44.97 cents per pound. December soymeal ended $1.30 or 0.4% lower at $315.70 per short ton.(Source:CME)
Malaysia, Indonesia Palm Oil Output To Expand By 2.5M Tons In 2010-11 - Analyst (Source:CME)
Palm oil production growth in Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's top producers of the commodity, may expand by 2.5 million metric tons during the calendar year 2010-2011, as widespread rain will boost palm yields and as the lower palm production period ends, vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry said. "The biological low cycle will come to an end around June 2011 and the higher cycle should coincide with the beneficial after-effects of good rainfall in 2010," Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said in a speech prepared for an industry conference in Mumbai, India. Mistry reiterated his forecast for Malaysian crude palm oil output this year, saying that an El Nino-related dry spell late last year will likely cut production by 2.3% to around 17.2 million tons, as the two-month dry spell caused tree stress and lowered crop yields. He estimated Indonesia's palm oil production in 2010 to reach 22.5 million from 22 million tons last year.
Mistry said palm prices are likely to trade lower the next four to six weeks, as he predicted a strong recovery in CPO production, which "will spillover into November. Malaysia's month-end stocks will rise and prices will need to go lower." Malaysia's September CPO output is likely to grow at a slower pace, as harvesting was disrupted when workers headed home for the Eid ul-Fitr celebrations earlier this month, traders said. "We could lose about MYR150-MYR200...After that weak spell, prices should begin to recover as exports remain strong," Mistry said, as major vegetable oil buyers India and China restock supplies, tipping prices to rally to MYR3,000-MYR3,200/ton by January next year. He also said global soyoil production for 2010-2011 period is projected to increase by about 2.1 million tons, Mistry said, citing higher rate of crushing and ample supply of global soybeans.
Rival soyoil prices will likely rise to rise sharply, to $1,050 a ton free-on-board Argentina ports by January, he said, widening the gap between soy oil and palm oil, making the latter a cheaper alternative to price-sensitive buyers. CPO usually trades a wide discount to soyoil, but a record crop of soybeans from South America this year and a likely record harvest from the U.S. even as palm production slowed, has pushed it into a narrow discount around $10-$20/ton the last few months.
Soy at 13-month top; corn, wheat rise on weak dollar
SINGAPORE, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Chicago soy futures climbed to a 13-month top on Monday, rising nearly 1 percent, while corn scaled a new 2-year peak as a weak dollar and tight supplies continued to buoy the grain market.
Soybeans gained additional strength from a rally in Asian vegetable oil markets, led by China's Dalian futures, estimates of sowing falling in the United States next year and dry weather hurting prospects of soon to be planted South American crops.
Climb on China, weather; palm at highest since May 2009
JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil hit its highest level since May 2009 and other global vegetable oil markets rallied on Monday as traders bet on top buyers China and India snapping up more cargoes in the months to come.
An industry conference in Mumbai forecast that India will buy a record amount of vegetable oil in the new marketing year and China's Ministry of Commerce revised up its estimate for September soy imports.
China MofCom ups Sept soy import est to 4.9 mln T
BEIJING, Sept 27 (Reuters) - China's commerce ministry has revised up its estimate for soy imports in September to 4.9 million tonnes, the second largest level ever, lifted from an earlier estimate of 4.7 million tonnes.
Cheap South American soy imports, coupled with a capacity expansion, led soy plants to book more of the oilseed after record imports of 6.2 million tonnes in June.
Palm oil to rise by Jan after weak Oct-Mistry
MUMBAI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures could rise at least 11 percent to 3,000-3,200 ringitt per tonne by January as demand strengthens but prices may weaken slightly next month as output and stocks rise, top analyst Dorab Mistry said.
Crude palm oil production would recover in October and Malaysia's month-end stocks would swell, he said on Sunday, suggesting that Malaysia's benchmark palm oil futures, which closed at 2,701 ringgit ($871.8) on Friday, would weaken.
Soyoil, biofuels may lift crude palm oil - Mielke
MUMBAI, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Robust biofuel demand and firm soyoil prices may lift crude palm oil (CPO) prices by 11 percent to 3,000 ringgits per tonne in five months, a top industry analyst said on Saturday.
On Friday, Malaysia's benchmark palm oil futures rose by more than 1 percent to close at 2,701 ringgit ($871.8).
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