Monday, March 26, 2018

20180326 Dow Futures Technical View

Dow Futures Technical:

Break down from triangle.

Friday candle has been over extended below lower Bollinger band. Correction could take place.

Further downside expected.

20180326 Soybean Technical View

Soybean Technical:

The fall has paused for now.

Friday's candle long lower shadows shows seller indecisiveness.

Market could test resistance level near 1043.70 and middle Bollinger bands.

Stock and Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St nosedives as investors flee on trade war fears - Reuters News

24-Mar-2018 04:58:42 AM

• Major indexes clock worst week in more than two years

• China-U.S. trade war worries eat into risk appetite

• Financial sector falls with Treasury yields

• Micron sinks on pricing worries, weighs on chip stocks

• Indexes down: Dow 1.77 pct, S&P 2.1 pct, Nasdaq 2.4 pct

Updates to close, adds commentary

By Sinéad Carew

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street tumbled on Friday with more than 1,000 points knocked off the Dow in two days as investors, increasingly nervous about a potential U.S. trade war with China, shied away from risk ahead of the weekend and sought shelter from further losses.

In a volatile session, the S&P 500 came within a hair of its 200-day moving average, a key technical level. The benchmark index also nudged closer to its February low, which marked a correction, ending 9.9 percent lower than its Jan. 26 record.

"There is concern what the trade war could look like. Investors want to manage their risk. If it escalates rapidly, it could be a major headwind for the market," said Peter Kenny, senior market strategist at Global Markets Advisory Group, in New York.

President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese goods moved the world's two largest economies closer to a trade war as China declared plans to levy duties on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports including fruit and wine even as it urged the United States to "pull back from the brink."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 424.69 points, or 1.77 percent, to 23,533.2, the S&P 500 lost 55.43 points, or 2.10 percent, to 2,588.26 after hitting an intraday low that was barely above its 200-day moving average of 2585.22.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 174.01 points, or 2.43 percent, to 6,992.67.

For the week, the Dow was down 5.67 percent, the S&P 500 was down 5.95 percent and the Nasdaq was down 6.54 percent, marking their biggest weekly percentage falls since January 2016.

The Dow was down 11.6 percent since its Jan. 26 high, and hit its lowest close since confirming a correction in February.

The Cboe Volatility Index, the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term volatility in the S&P 500, finished up 1.53 points at 24.87, its highest close since Feb. 13.

The S&P's financial sector was the S&P's biggest percentage loser, at 3 percent, after a volatile session in which it was whip-sawed by volatile Treasury yields.

Bloomberg News cited China's ambassador to the United States saying that the country is "looking at all options" in response to tariffs, which could include scaling back purchases of U.S. Treasuries.

Nasdaq was weighed down by declines in momentum stocks such as Facebook, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Google's parent Alphabet.

The semiconductor sector took a fall after Micron Technology's quarterly report stoked fears about falling NAND prices. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index slumped 3.3 percent.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.96-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.72-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 42 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 93 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.11 billion shares, above the 7.3 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and April Joyner in New York and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru Editing by Nick Zieminski and James Dalgleish)

UPDATE 2-Oil prices fall as U.S. trade dispute with China looms - Reuters News

26-Mar-2018 01:50:50 PM

• Stock markets stumble on potential U.S.-China trade dispute

• U.S. rig count hits 3-year high, pointing to rising output

• China launches Shanghai crude oil futures

• Glencore carries out 1st trade on Shanghai crude oil futures

Adds China comment, updates prices

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Brent and WTI crude oil futures dipped on Monday as concerns of a looming trade dispute between the United States and China weighed on global markets.

In Asia, Shanghai crude oil futures debuted strongly, both in terms of volume and prices, with front-month contracts soaring as much as 6 percent as investors bought into the world's newest financial oil trading instrument.

Looming over oil markets, however, was the possibility of a full-blown trade war between the United States and China battered Asian shares, on Monday. The falls came after U.S. President Donald Trump last week signed a memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports from China.

This weighed on crude oil futures as well. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $65.49 a barrel at 0543 GMT, down 39 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their previous close.

Brent crude futures were at $70.18 per barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.4 percent.

Crude was also weighed by a rise in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil to a three-year high of 804, implying further rises in production, which has already jumped by a quarter since mid-2016 to 10.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

NEW FUTURES

Financial oil markets have long been dominated by Europe's Brent and America's WTI.

Asia, despite being the world's biggest and fastest growing oil consumer, has so far not had a benchmark.

That possibly changed on Monday, as China saw the launch of Shanghai crude oil futures.

Few analysts doubt that Asia is overdue a financial oil price benchmark, and that China with its vast consumer and production base is a prime location for it.

"China surpassed the U.S. to become the world's largest importer of crude in 2017. Rightly so, China would want to play a more active role in influencing the price of crude oil," said Sushant Gupta, research director at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie said it expected China's crude imports to grow by 2.1 million bpd from 2017 to 2023, which it said was the world's biggest growth in demand.

"Prices assessed at the Shanghai exchange will reflect China's crude supply and demand," said Gupta, adding that its independence from movements in Brent and WTI "could provide new arbitrage opportunities for traders".

Despite this, there were concerns over regulatory interference, as seen in other Chinese commodities like iron ore and coal.

"The fact that the government is encouraging the exchange and also is not shy about stepping in to occasionally change the rules may discourage international players," said Jeff Brown, President of energy consultancy FGE.

That concern did not scare off global commodity trading giant Glencore, which according to Chinese brokerage Xinhu Futures carried out the first trade on the Shanghai crude oil futures.

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein

Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

PRECIOUS-Gold rises to five-week high on trade war, geopolitical woes - Reuters News

26-Mar-2018 12:48:12 PM

• Gold to be headline driven for the moment -analysts

• Gold specs cut net long position by 23,822 contracts to

121,838

-CFTC

(Adds quotes, updates prices)

By Eileen Soreng

March 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose to a five-week high on Monday as the threat of a trade war between the United States and China weighed on the dollar and equity markets, driving investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,348.66 per ounce at 0419 GMT. Price rose to as much as $1,350.76 per ounce, the highest since Feb. 19.

Gold rose 2.6 percent last week, its biggest weekly gain since September 2017.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.1 percent to $1,348.80 per ounce.

Fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China battered Asian shares again on Monday, keeping the safe-haven yen near a 16-month peak. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 89.39.

Last week U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods, while China declared plans to levy additional duties on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium.

"It's hard not to stay long gold with geopolitical risk now registering in the danger zone as an escalation of a trade war and John Bolton's appointment unambiguously raised short-term market risks to a whole new level," Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA, said in a note.

Trump named Bolton, who has previously advocated using military force against North Korea and Iran, as his national security adviser last week provoking strong reactions worldwide. A senior Iranian official, on Sunday, called the move "shameful."

The yellow metal also received support early Monday from fresh tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi militia, said a Hong Kong-based trader.

Saudi air defences shot down seven ballistic missiles fired by Houthi militia on Sunday, with debris killing a man in what was the first death in the capital during the Saudi-led coalition's three-year military campaign in Yemen.

"Gold is going to be headline driven for the moment... so we are going to keep an eye out for any new information," the trader added.

Gold is sought as a store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, while a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, speculators cut their net long positions in the week to March 20 by 23,822 contracts to 121,838 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday. The data does not reflect the buying interest that occurred during the latter part of last week.

In other precious metals, silver gained 0.5 percent to $16.60 per ounce; while platinum was up 0.2 percent at $948.99 per ounce.

Palladium rose 0.1 percent to $977.10 per ounce.

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; editing by Richard Pullin and Christian Schmollinger)

VEGOILS-Palm falls to one-week low on weak demand outlook, stronger ringgit - Reuters News

26-Mar-2018 12:53:20 PM

• Palm falls to one-week low of 2,416 rgt/T

• Market also down on rising output forecasts - Trader

• Malaysian exports up 9.5 pct on-month during March 1-25 -AmSpec

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, March 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures declined in early trade on Monday, hitting a one-week low in early session, weighed down by a weakening demand outlook and a stronger ringgit.

Gains in the ringgit, palm's currency of trade, usually make the oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies. The ringgit strengthened 0.3 percent against the dollar around noon on Monday to 3.9030.

The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.45 percent to 2,417 ringgit ($619.27) a tonne at the midday break. It earlier fell to 2,416 ringgit, its lowest since March 20.

Trading volumes stood at 8,381 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The ringgit is stronger today and, going forward, the market feels that April exports will decline as duties are imposed," said a futures trader from Kuala Lumpur, referring to Malaysia's resumption of crude palm oil export taxes in April.

Malaysia in early January suspended its export tax on crude palm oil for three months to increase demand and boost prices, as it expected stockpiles to grow in 2018.

While Malaysian palm oil demand is expected to rise in the short term before the export tax kicks in, the market expects exports to slump from April onwards as buyers switch to more competitively priced Indonesian palm.

Inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported on Monday that Malaysian palm oil shipments rose 9.5 percent between March 1-25 versus the same period last month.

The trader also added that expectations of rising production for the full month of March is also weighing on sentiment. Palm oil output typically sees seasonal gains around the second quarter of the year before peaking in the third quarter.

In other related oils, the Chicago Board of Trade's May soybean oil contract rose 0.5 percent, while the May soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.1 percent.

The Dalian May palm oil contract declined 0.2 percent.

Palm oil prices are impacted by movements in rival edible oils as they compete in the global vegetable oils market.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices as of 0444 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL APR8 2410 -10.00 2390 2415 48

MY PALM OIL MAY8 2422 -10.00 2419 2436 1270

MY PALM OIL JUN8 2417 -11.00 2416 2433 4534

CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP8 5102 -16.00 4980 5116 400914

CHINA SOYOIL SEP8 5844 +2.00 5690 5874 544532

CBOT SOY OIL MAY8 31.57 +0.15 31.42 31.71 7606

INDIA PALM OIL MAR8 643.50 -1.00 643.50 644.5 10

INDIA SOYOIL APR8 780 -0.15 779.5 780.45 120

NYMEX CRUDE MAY8 65.57 -0.31 65.46 66.55 89311

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.9030 ringgit)

($1 = 64.8800 Indian rupees)

($1 = 6.3117 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Sunil Nair)

GRAINS-Wheat climbs to 1-week high on U.S. dryness; soybeans rebound - Reuters News

26-Mar-2018 11:02:26 AM

• Wheat rises for 5th session as dry weather hurts U.S. crop

• Soybeans up, but threat of U.S.-China trade war caps gains

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat rose for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, climbing to a one-week high as concerns over dry weather in the U.S. southern Plains underpinned the market.

Soybeans bounced back after closing marginally lower on Friday, although gains were capped by the threat of a U.S.-China trade war hurting demand for U.S. cargoes.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active wheat contract rose 0.5 percent to $4.62-3/4 a bushel by 0245 GMT, after hitting its highest since March 19 at $4.63-3/4 a bushel.

Soybeans gained 0.7 percent to $10.35-1/4 a bushel and corn advanced 0.7 percent to $3.80 a bushel.

The wheat market is finding support in dry weather in key U.S. winter crop regions.

"U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat crops remain at risk of falling yields," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The HRW crop regions did get a little rain last week but not enough where it was most needed."

Soybeans closed marginally lower on Friday on worries about trade issues with China, the world's top soybean importer, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods.

However, soybeans were not on China's list of American goods that could be subject to extra duties in response to U.S. tariffs.

China is projected to import 97 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2017/18 marketing year and 100 million in 2018/19, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Those totals cannot be met by South American suppliers alone, analysts say, making it less likely that China would retaliate against U.S. soybeans.

Soybean prices have drawn support from crop losses in drought-hit Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter. The Buenos Aires grains exchange last week cut its estimate of the country's soy harvest to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes previously.

The focus is shifting to U.S. growing season. Farmers are likely to plant a record 91.5 million acres of soybeans in 2018 and 90 million acres of corn, according to a Farm Futures survey of nearly 1,400 growers released on Friday.

Large speculators cut their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week to March 20, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans.

Grains prices at 0245 GMT

Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI

CBOT wheat 462.75 2.50 +0.54% +1.54% 477.67 42

CBOT corn 380.00 2.75 +0.73% +1.06% 380.69 55

CBOT soy 1035.25 7.00 +0.68% +0.53% 1043.45 51

CBOT rice 12.34 -$0.02 -0.16% +0.12% $12.34 55

WTI crude 65.53 -$0.35 -0.53% +1.91% $62.14 69

Currencies

Euro/dlr $1.237 $0.002 +0.14% +0.55%

USD/AUD 0.7722 0.003 +0.34% +0.40%

Most active contracts

Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight

RSI 14, exponential

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral

Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

TREASURIES-Yields rise from six-week lows as stocks retrace losses - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 09:07:49 PM

• Yields rise as stocks recover

• Capital goods orders rebounded in February

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose from to six-week lows on Friday as stocks appeared stronger, after tumbling on Thursday on concerns about global trade wars.

China urged the United States on Friday to "pull back from the brink" as President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese goods moved the world's two largest economies closer to a trade war.

Stocks markets fell globally as investors feared the impact of tariffs on global growth, before retracing some of their losses on Friday morning.

"Equity markets seem to be coming off their lows quite nicely," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. "We're getting a little bit of a rubber band rebound from yesterday's risk off rally in Treasuries."

Benchmark 10-year notes were last down 5/32 in price on the day to yield 2.850 percent, after falling to a six-week low of 2.792 percent overnight.

With no large catalysts in the near-term expected to set market direction investors are focusing on headlines coming out of Washington.

Data on Friday showed that new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rebounded more than expected in February after two straight monthly declines and shipments surged, pointing to strong growth in business spending on equipment in the first quarter.

(Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

-------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 8:48 a.m. EDT (1248 GMT)-------

June T-Bond 144-08/32 (-16/32)

June 10-Year note 120-14/32 (-03/32)

Change vs Current

Nyk yield

Three-month bills 1.6975 (+0.01) 1.728

Six-month bills 1.8875 (unch) 1.932

Two-year note 99-30/32 (-) 2.291

Five-year note 99-30/32 (-02/32) 2.642

10-year note 99-05/32 (-05/32) 2.850

30-year bond 98-04/32 (-19/32) 3.097

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

LAST Change

U.S. 2-year dollar swap spread 32.25 (+1.00)

U.S. 3-year dollar swap spread 27.25 (+0.50)

U.S. 5-year dollar swap spread 15.00 (unch)

U.S. 10-year dollar swap spread 3.75 (-0.25)

U.S. 30-year dollar swap spread -15.25 (-0.75)

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Nike, energy stock help Wall St steady, but chip stocks weigh - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 11:47:00 PM

Nike jumps on positive N. America sales forecast
Micron sinks on pricing worries, weighs on chip stocks
Dropbox surges as much as 48 pct in trading debut
Dow up 0.29 pct, S&P up 0.08 pct, Nasdaq down 0.15 pct

Changes comment, adds details, updates prices

By Sruthi Shankar

March 23 (Reuters) - Nike and energy companies led modest gains in U.S. stocks on Friday, amid lingering fears of a trade war, although a Micron-led slump in semiconductor companies kept gains in check.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was modestly higher, helped by Nike and as industrial stocks gained after a bruising day on Thursday when the United States moved to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports, sparking fears of a trade war.

China on Friday retaliated by disclosing own plans for tariffs on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports, but also urged the United States to "pull back from the brink."

"Nothing's happened yet, except for the tariffs in the U.S. Investors don't want to sell and buy back at a higher price and if the diplomacy wins and trade war is not as severe as everyone's thinking," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York.

"So right now the market's in a wait-and-see period, they are waiting to see what the next catalyst will be - bullish or bearish."

Also helping sentiment was data showing new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods posted its biggest gain in five months in February.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 1.8 percent last month. Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent gain.

At 11:00 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which gained 0.29 percent to 24,027.28. The S&P 500 rose 0.08 percent to 2,645.88 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15 percent to 7,155.72.

Nike shares rose 3.2 percent after the company said it expected North America business to return to growth in the latter half of the year.

Oil prices jumped more than 1.5 percent after the Saudi energy minister said OPEC and allied producers would need to keep coordinating supply cuts into 2019.

The S&P energy index was up 1.23 percent. The industrial index was up 0.36 percent, led by a 2.5 percent gain for Boeing.

Micron Technology fell about 5 percent after Citigroup downgraded the chipmaker, citing falling NAND prices. The company, however, posted better-than-expected quarterly results on Thursday.

Shares of other chipmakers also came under pressure, weighing on the S&P tech index, which was off 0.13 percent, and leading to a 1.2 percent drop on the Philadelphia semiconductor index.

Dropbox Inc surged as much as 48 percent in their market debut on Friday as investors rushed to buy into the biggest tech IPO in more than a year.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE for a 1.11-to-1 ratio, and for a 1.37-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza)

UPDATE 8-Oil rises as Saudi backs extending output cuts into 2019 - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 11:01:52 PM

Brent heads for strongest weekly rise since July
Trump's new National Security adviser seen as hawk on Iran
Brent to hit $75/barrel by Q3 on strong demand -Morgan Stanley
Coming up: Baker Hughes drilling data and CFTC report

New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comment; new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON

By Ayenat Mersie

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - Crude prices rose on Friday, hitting their highest since late January after the Saudi energy minister said OPEC and allied producers would need to keep coordinating supply cuts into 2019, and as concerns grew over the future of Iranian crude exports.

Brent crude futures hit a session high of $70.22 a barrel before retreating to $70.13 by 10:27 a.m. EDT (1427 GMT), up $1.22 or 1.77 percent. For the week, Brent was up about 5.9 percent, its strongest weekly rise since July.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $65.34 a barrel, up $1.04, or 1.6 percent. On the week, WTI was up about 4.4 percent.

"There are a number of bullish things to hang the hat of the rally on this week; be it the inventory report ... or the tariff news, or the heightened tensions between Saudi and Iran," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Clipper Data in Louisville, Kentucky.

President Donald Trump's decision to replace national security adviser H.R McMaster with John Bolton, who is seen as more hawkish on Iran, also supported prices, Smith said.

Oil's rise defied a slump in global stock markets, which fell in response to worries about a trade stand-off between the United States and China. Gold, seen as a safe haven, hit a two-week high.

Since January 2017, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as a group of non-members, have curbed output by 1.8 million barrels per day.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told Reuters that such curbs would need to continue into 2019 to reduce global oil inventories.

"As the Saudi guessing game for the new rebalancing target begins, Brent seems well positioned to have another crack at the $70 (a barrel) level," PVM said in a note.

Although analysts said the stand-off between the United States and China could hit oil markets, for now most said demand looked healthy.

"Geopolitical tensions are coming to the front. But global balances are relatively tight at the moment. That's enough to amplify relatively small factors," said Andrew Wilson, head of energy research at BRS Brokers.

Morgan Stanley also cited an expected pick-up in seasonal demand in the coming months.

"We are only three-four weeks away from peak refinery maintenance, after which crude and product demand should accelerate ... Global inventories are already at the bottom end of the five-year range," the U.S. bank said.

"There are sufficient reasons to expect oil prices to strengthen further from here, and we stick with our (Brent) $75 per barrel call for Q3," Morgan Stanley said.

Goldman Sachs said in a note this week that demand and OPEC cuts pushed its Brent spot price expectations to $82.50 a barrel by mid-year.

(Additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla, Henning Gloystein and Roslan Khasawneh
Editing by David Gregorio and Dale Hudson)

UPDATE 1-China Feb LNG imports eased on slower industrial demand growth, New Year holiday - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 12:34:46 PM

Spot LNG prices fell as demand declined
Feb gas imports by pipeline gained 16 pct on year
Feb fuel exports fell

Re-casts to lead with LNG

BEIJING, March 23 (Reuters) - China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports fell in February from a record high in January, with growth in demand from industrial users easing as the country enjoyed its traditional week-long Lunar New Year holiday last month.

The world's number 2 economy brought in 3.99 million tonnes of LNG in February, up 69 percent from a year ago, but well down from the previous month's 5.18 million tonnes, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday.

Still, for the first two months for the year, LNG arrivals climbed 58 percent from the same period a year earlier to 9.15 million tonnes.

Warmer weather will continue to dampen LNG imports, with China's winter heating season having come to a close in mid-March.

"The market needs less gas now," gas analyst Diao Zhouwei with IHS said, predicting import volumes will decline again this month.

Spot LNG prices fell to around 3,000 yuan per tonne ($474 per tonne) this week, slipping from a high of more than 6,000 yuan per tonne in December, Diao said.

However, demand from industrial consumers such as fertilizer makers is set to pick up, with some businesses having resumed operations after shutting for more than two months during a winter gas supply crunch.

Gas imports through pipelines grew 16 percent in February to 2.9 million tonnes, customs data showed. For the first two months of the year, gas piped in grew 12 percent to 5.5 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, China's monthly diesel exports fell to 1.04 million tonnes in February, the lowest since January 2017, while gasoline exports fell again from the peak level in December.

(Reporting by Meng Meng and Aizhu Chen
Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

Gold Prices near Two-Week Highs on Fed Decision, Trade Fears - MIST

23-Mar-2018 11:20:40 PM

Investing-

Gold prices were trading near their highest levels in two weeks in European mid-morning trade on Thursday, boosted by a softer dollar after a less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve and growing concerns over trade tariffs.

Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were up $9.7 or 0.73% to $1,331.2 a troy ounce by 05:28 AM ET (09:28 GMT).

The dollar weakened broadly after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday but stuck to its forecast for two more hikes this year.

Some investors had expected the Fed to project three more rate hikes this year so the decision to stick to its forecast for two additional hikes was seen as less hawkish than expected.

Expectations for a slower pace of rate hikes tend to buoy gold, which struggles to compete with yield bearing assets when interest rates rise.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.18% at 89.13 after plumbing a one-month low of 89.06 overnight.

A weaker dollar makes gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency less expensive for overseas buyers.

Prices of the precious metal received an additional boost from increased safe haven demand amid growing concerns over the prospect of a U.S. - led trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump was expected to unveil up to $60 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports later in the day. The Trump administration already imposed tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports earlier this month.

Investors are concerned that major U.S. trade partners could retaliate with similar measures and threaten the outlook for global growth.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures were up 0.83% at $16.555 a troy ounce, while platinum futures were little changed for the day at $958.60.

Farm Futures survey puts U.S. soy area at record 91.5 million acres - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 10:27:11 PM

CHICAGO, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers are likely to plant a record 91.5 million acres of soybeans in 2018 and 90 million acres of corn, according to a Farm Futures survey of nearly 1,400 growers released on Friday.

The plantings survey, conducted by email from March 1 to March 22, projected U.S. all-wheat plantings for harvest in 2018 at 46.2 million acres.

		Change vs
Crop	Acreage	USDA final 2017
Corn	90 million	-0.2%
Soybeans	91.5 million	1.5%
All Winter Wheat	32.3 million	-1.3%
Spring Wheat	11.7 million	5.9%
Durum	2.3 million	-2.0%
All Wheat	46.2 million	0.5%
Sorghum	5.9 million	4.1%
Cotton	13.3 million	7.9%

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

USDA Attache Report: China Targets U.S. Agriculture in Response to U.S. Trade Actions Beijing China - Peoples Republic of - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 10:15:50 PM

March 23 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China - Peoples Republic of:

On March 23, 2018, the People's Republic of China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced a proposal to levy retaliatory tariffs impacting approximately $2.0 billion in U.S. food and agricultural exports to China in response to the recent U.S. 232 Trade Action on steel and aluminum. The products subject to this proposed increase in tariffs include pork and pork products, horticultural products, wine, American ginseng, and denatured ethanol. Interested domestic parties have until March 31, 2018 to comment or submit additional information to MOFCOM's Trade Relief and Investigation Bureau regarding these countermeasures.

CBOT Trends-Soybeans down 6-10 cents, down 3-4, wheat down 4-6 - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 09:29:24 PM

CHICAGO, March 23 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of the grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Friday.

WHEAT - Down 4 to 6 cents per bushel

Lower on technical selling and spillover weakness from soybeans and corn amid worries about mounting trade tensions with China. Market underpinned by dry conditions in the U.S. Plains wheat belt and forecasts that scaled back rain coverage next week.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. wheat in the latest week at 428,600 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations.
CBOT May soft red winter wheat last traded down 5-1/2 cents at $4.50-1/4 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last down 2-3/4 cents at $4.68-1/4 and MGEX May spring wheat was last down 2-3/4 cents at $5.90-1/4.

CORN - Down 3 to 4 cents per bushel

Corn turned lower in early moves on technical selling and worries about growing trade tensions with China. The CBOT May contract fell below its 50-day moving average, which had been a support level this week. Long liquidation expected ahead of the weekend.
The USDA reported export sales of U.S. corn in the latest week at 1,455,700 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), at the low end of a range of trade expectations.
Traders are looking ahead to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March 29 planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports.
CBOT May corn last traded down 3-3/4 cents at $3.72-1/4 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Down 6 to 10 cents per bushel

Soybeans turned lower in early moves on technical selling and worries about trade tensions with China, the world's top soybean buyer. The CBOT May contract dipped to $10.12, its lowest since Feb. 13.
Chinese buyers of soybeans, the United States' biggest agricultural export, are quietly drawing up contingency plans to ensure supplies of alternative feed ingredients in the event of a trade war, sources said.
The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 899,100 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations.
CBOT May soybeans last traded down 9-1/2 cents at $10.20-1/4 per bushel.

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

As trade tensions mount, China soybean buyers devise contingency plans - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 08:04:52 PM

Soybeans are America's biggest farm export to China
US soybean prices under pressure on worries over orders
Feedmakers worry trade action would push up prices
China soymeal prices rise on Friday

By Hallie Gu and Josephine Mason

BEIJING, March 23 (Reuters) - Chinese buyers of soybeans, the United States' biggest agricultural export to the country, are quietly drawing up contingency plans to ensure supplies of critical raw materials in the event of a trade war, sources said.

The moves are the strongest sign yet that businesses in the world's most populous country are growing worried that critical commodities could get caught up in escalating trade tensions.

At least two trading houses have started buying more rapeseed meal, an alternative ingredient used to make animal feed, in case the oilseed is a target of retaliation by Beijing, sources at the company familiar with the strategies said.

"It is an obvious choice to seek other protein sources. We are buying more rapeseed meal, for example," said one of the sources.

As an extra layer of protection, his company has also started to include exit clauses in purchase contracts with U.S. suppliers giving them the right to cancel the order if needed.

The second source said their firm was also purchasing more domestic distillers' dried grains (DDGS), a byproduct of ethanol production used as an animal feed ingredient.

The company is also considering ramping up purchases of Brazilian soybeans.

The sources declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media and would not disclose further details due to the commercial sensitivity of the issue.

POWERFUL WEAPON

Penalties on soybeans would be a powerful weapon in Beijing's arsenal because they would especially hurt Iowa, a state that backed U.S. President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential elections. U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad was previously a long-serving governor of the farm state.

The United States shipped more than $12 billion worth of soybeans to China last year. China buys two thirds of the beans traded worldwide, mainly from Brazil and the United States.

China's commerce and agriculture ministries told a delegation of U.S. soy growers last September that soybeans were being considered as a target for retaliatory action in the event of U.S. trade action against Beijing.

On Thursday, Trump announced plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese goods for what he says is misappropriation of U.S. intellectual property, moving the world's two largest economies closer to a trade war.

China showed readiness to retaliate by declaring plans to levy additional duties on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports including fruit and wine in response to U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminium, which were due to go into effect on Friday.

U.S. PRICES UNDER PRESSURE

Jim Sutter, chief executive of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said it would not be a surprise for Chinese crushers and importers to make emergency plans.

"They're business people and they have to be thinking about their alternatives," he said.

Sutter had not heard of any specific contingency plans being developed. However, Chinese buyers would likely find it difficult to get by only using alternatives, because its industry relies so heavily on U.S. soybeans, he said.

Even so, worries that China may cancel orders pushed cash bids for both soybeans and corn lower at grain elevators along Midwest rivers on Thursday, indicating decreased demand from export terminals at the U.S. Gulf, a U.S. grains exporter said.

Soybeans dropped by about 2 cents to 6 cents per bushel and corn was down 1 to 4 cents per bushel.

NOW IT SEEMS REAL

The threat of a trade war drove up prices for soymeal, hurting feedmakers and pig farmers, on Friday. The most-active soymeal futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were up 1.4 percent at 3,046 yuan per tonne.

Traders and millers who crush soybeans and rapeseed to make meal and oil in China say there are no signs of panic in the country's vast farming and livestock sector.

Any immediate impact on crushers will be cushioned by a Brazilian crop coming to market.

"We will deal with it if it happens," said Ji Feng, a senior soybean trader at global commodities merchant Cargill, in a panel discussion at an oilseeds conference on Thursday.

Still the increasingly heated rhetoric between the two countries has given some industry insiders pause this week.

"I feel the trade war is really happening. Before it was just talk, but now it seems real," said a purchasing manager at a medium-sized feed company who is bracing for a further spike in soymeal prices.

"For me, the impact will be mainly on soymeal prices."

(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Josephine Mason in BEIJING; additional reporting by Mark Weinraub and Tom Polansek in CHICAGO
Editing by Bill Tarrant)

GRAINS-Soybeans slide as investors fret over U.S.-China trade fallout - Reuters News

23-Mar-2018 07:44:06 PM

Soy turns lower as China lists possible tariffs vs U.S.
Soybeans seen as unlikely target with Chinese import needs
Trade fears encourage drop after Argentina weather rally
Wheat, corn track soy lower; rain in U.S. also curbs wheat

Writes through with market fall during European hours, changes byline/dateline

By Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral

PARIS/SINGAPORE, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures turned lower on Friday, hitting a one-month low as a deepening trade dispute between the United States and China, respectively the world's biggest soybean producer and importer, triggered selling after a recent weather rally.

Traders and analysts do not expect U.S. soybeans to be directly targeted in any Chinese riposte to U.S. plans to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese products, because of China's heavy reliance on soybean imports.

However, the growing tensions, with China issuing a list of U.S. goods including pork that could be subject to extra duties in response to U.S. tariffs, fuelled caution in the soybean market.

"It's a case of concern about whether these additional tariffs from Trump will result in retaliation from China," Charles Clack, a commodity analyst at Rabobank, said.

"On the soybean side, this is lowering confidence in the recent price strength in a market that has been popular with funds," he said.

"Fundamentally, our view is that in terms of retaliatory measures, soybeans is very difficult for China to do."

China is by far the world's biggest importer of soybeans and with drought slashing harvest prospects in No. 3 producer Argentina this year, China would struggle to replace U.S. supplies.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade was down 1.2 percent at $10.17-1/2 a bushel by 1133 GMT. It earlier fell as low as $10.12, its weakest since Feb. 16, after erasing a small gain at the start of the session.

CBOT wheat was down 1.5 percent at $4.49 a bushel and corn was down 1.1 percent at $3.71-3/4, with the cereals pressured by the pullback in soybeans and wider losses in equity and commodity markets.

Wheat also remained under pressure from rains that could help drought-hit U.S. winter wheat crops as the crucial spring growth period begins.

(Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; editing by Richard Pullin and Susan Fenton)