20180321 Crude Oil Futures Technical View

Crude Oil Technical: 
Testing crucial resistance. 

Tuesday candle witnessed buyers boldness. 

A break and sustain above 64.30 will see further upside. 

20180321 Dow Futures Technical View

Dow Futures Technical: 

Consolidating within a triangle. 

Tuesday's candle doesn't show strength. 

Waiting for a break out of the triangle for next trading signal. 

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St advances on energy bump; Facebook woes continues - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 04:22:59 AM

• Oil prices up, energy stocks bounce

• Facebook says it faces questions from U.S. FTC

• FOMC policy meeting kicks off, guidance eyed

• Dow up 0.47 pct, S&P 500 up 0.15 pct, Nasdaq up 0.27 pct

Updates to market close

By Chuck Mikolajczak

March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced modestly on Tuesday as higher oil prices lifted the energy sector, but another slump in Facebook Inc shares curbed gains. 

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent to touch a three-week high, driven by tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of further declines in Venezuelan crude output.

Those gains helped the S&P energy index rise 0.84 percent, making it easily the best performing of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors.

Facebook Inc shares ended down 2.6 percent, well above earlier lows. The social media company said on Tuesday it faced questions from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission about how its users' personal data was mined by a political consultancy hired by President Donald Trump's campaign. 

The stock has fallen about 9 percent over the past two sessions, its biggest two-day decline since February 2016, a drop that has weighed heavily on equities. 

U.S. and European lawmakers have demanded an explanation of how the consultancy, Cambridge Analytica, gained access to the data and why Facebook failed to inform its users, raising broader industry questions about consumer privacy and whether tougher regulation is on the horizon. 

"The negative part would be they are going to haul them in front of Congress now and we'll see do they create new laws, are there new regulations that could stunt the growth of the company? That is really what the fear is," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

Facebook was not the only social media stock or fund taking a hit on Tuesday. Shares of Snap Inc fell 2.56 percent, while Twitter Inc shares tumbled 10.38 percent. The Global X Social Media ETF lost 0.9 percent. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 116.36 points, or 0.47 percent, to 24,727.27, the S&P 500 gained 4.02 points, or 0.15 percent, to 2,716.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.06 points, or 0.27 percent, to 7,364.30.

Oracle dropped 9.4 percent after the business software maker reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue. 

Financial stocks edged up 0.21 percent as investors awaited a near-certain interest rate hike at the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday. 

Market participants largely expect a total of three rate hikes this year, although some have not ruled out the possibility the U.S. central bank will hike four times.

"We are finally normalizing, after years we talked about the Fed holding it down and the market only going up because of the Fed. Now let's see what the market can do – can it stand on its own two legs?" said Saluzzi, referring to the low interest rate environment the Fed put into effect after the financial crisis. 

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.26 billion shares, compared with the 7.17 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. 

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.26-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

UPDATE 2-Oil edges up on Middle East tensions, but soaring U.S. output still weighs - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 03:46:52 PM

• Saudi Crown Prince visits Washington

• U.S., Saudi Arabia expected to put pressure on Iran

• U.S. could reimpose sanctions against Tehran

• Healthy demand also supports crude prices

• But relentless rise in U.S. crude production caps gains

Adds comment, updates prices

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday, lifted by tensions in the Middle East and healthy demand, although rising U.S. output continued to weigh on markets.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.69 a barrel at 0744 GMT, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their previous close.

Brent crude futures were at $67.56 per barrel, up 14 cents, or 0.2 percent.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday arrived in Washington for a state visit, raising speculation the United States could reimpose sanctions on Iran, following renewed criticism of the 2015 nuclear deal.

"The presence of the Saudi Crown Prince...in Washington and his clear agenda to ramp up pressure on Iran, has for me, been the key driver...of oil, which rose strongly," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

Analysts also pointed to the nomination of Mike Pompeo as new U.S. Secretary of State as a risk to oil markets, given he fiercely opposed the 2015 pact as a member of Congress. 

"The nomination of Mike Pompeo for U.S. Secretary of State...raises the likelihood of oil trade disruptions," U.S. bank Citi said in a note.

Should the United States reimpose sanctions against Iran, energy consultancy FGE said that would likely result in a 250,000 to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) drop in its exports by year-end.

Analysts also pointed to healthy economic growth and a weak dollar as oil price drivers.

In a sign of healthy demand, U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels in the week ended March 16 to 425.3 million, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. 

Official U.S. production and inventory data will be released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

"The global economy is humming, and robust demand solidly underpins commodity prices," said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity Research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

Despite this, he said seasonally low demand at the end of the northern hemisphere winter season meant he had "a rather cautious near-term outlook on commodities."

Looming over oil markets has been surging U.S. crude production which has risen by more than a fifth since mid-2016, to 10.38 million bpd, overtaking top exporter Saudi Arabia and putting the United States within reach of Russia's 11 million bpd.

"U.S. shale will continue to weigh on prices," Singapore-based Phillip Futures said in a note.

Still, some U.S. producers are holding back expansion in order to prevent a price crash.

"Larger players are holding back capital expenditures in an attempt to avoid past mistakes," said consultancy FGE.

PRECIOUS-Gold gains on dollar decline as market awaits Fed rate outlook - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 04:01:25 PM

• Fed seen raising rates, 2018 rate hike projections in focus

• Gold down 4 pct from over 1-1/2-year high touched in Jan

• Analysts see global political tensions supporting gold

(Updates prices)

By Eileen Soreng

March 21 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the dollar fell as investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting this week for signs of the pace of monetary tightening, which could limit the demand for bullion going forward.

Spot gold was 0.4 percent higher at $1,315.84 per ounce at 0746 GMT. Prices fell to a nearly three-week low of $1,306.91 in the previous session.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 0.27 percent to $1,315.40 per ounce.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.2 percent to 90.195 after climbing to 90.445 on Tuesday, its highest since March 1. 

With a 25 basis point interest rate hike seen as a done deal, investors will be on the lookout for whether the Fed forecasts four rate increases in 2018, instead of the median of three hikes in December's quarterly forecast.

"Dealers will be looking at forward guidance to determine the dollar's prospects, and therefore that of gold," said Alasdair Macleod, head of research with Toronto-based Goldmoney Inc.

The Fed will make an announcement on interest rates at 1800 GMT on Wednesday and new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold his first news conference at 1830 GMT.

The expectations for a faster pace of U.S. rate hikes have caused gold to fall 4 percent from a 1-1/2-year high reached in January.

Higher U.S. interest rates reduces demand for gold for non-interest-bearing bullion.

Heightened geo-political tensions, inflation concerns, trade wars and runaway U.S. budget deficit spending should serve to counteract the well-expected Fed rate hike and keep the floor on gold prices intact, Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA said.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, holdings rose 1.26 percent, their best one-day percentage rise since Jan. 18, to 850.84 tonnes on Monday.

SPDR holdings, however, fell 0.04 percent on Tuesday. 

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unveil up to $60 billion in import duties on Chinese goods by Friday. The move comes after Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminium earlier this month.

Investors are worried Trump's actions could escalate into a trade war if China and other countries retaliate with similar or harsher measures, threatening global growth.

Among other precious metals, both spot silver and platinum were up 0.5 percent, at $16.27 per ounce and $944.90 per ounce, respectively.

Palladium rose 0.2 percent at $980.50 per ounce.

GRAINS-Wheat near 1-month low as rains ease U.S. crop concerns - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 11:52:24 AM

• Wheat little changed, near Tuesday's weakest since Feb. 22

• Corn ticks up after 5-session fall, soybeans up for 2nd day

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures were largely unchanged on Wednesday, hovering near last session's one-month low as forecasts of more rains in U.S. southern Plains further eased concerns over drought-damage to the winter crop.

Corn rose as the market took a breather following five consecutive sessions of decline while soybeans rose for a second day.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade was unchanged at $4.53 a bushel by 0327 GMT. On Tuesday, prices dropped to a low of $4.50 a bushel, the weakest since Feb 22. 

Corn added 0.1 percent to $3.75 a bushel, having lost 4.4 percent in the past five sessions and soybeans rose 0.1 percent to $10.29-1/2 a bushel, having firmed 0.6 percent on Tuesday.

"We are seeing improved weather in the United States and Argentina," said one Singapore-based agricultural commodities trader.

"Soybean crop losses in Argentina have now been priced in and for wheat, there is no major global supply threat."

The wheat market is under pressure as rains fell across parched U.S. fields in the last few days. Some forecast models called for another round of moisture in the drought-hit southern Plains, where the hard red winter wheat crop is exiting dormancy and resuming spring growth.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) late on Monday rated 11 percent of top winter wheat producer Kansas in good-to-excellent condition, down from 12 percent a week earlier. Wheat ratings also declined in Texas.

The soybean market is focused on trade relations between the United States and China. 

U.S. agricultural exports could be at risk in any retaliation over tariffs implemented by the White House, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said on Monday.

Soybeans are the biggest U.S. agricultural export, followed by corn. China is by far the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans.

Late season rains will halt further deterioration of drought-hit Argentine soybean yields, setting the stage for an estimated crop of at least 40 million tonnes after being trounced earlier in the season by extremely dry weather, experts said on Tuesday.

The 2017/18 crop year started with soy harvest estimates in the 55 million tonne range. But the drought has parched wide areas of Argentina's normally fertile Pampas grains belt since November and scorched some soy and corn fields beyond repair.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn and soyoil futures on Tuesday, and net buyers of soybeans, wheat and soymeal, traders said. 

UPDATE 1-Indonesia wins appeal against EU over anti-dumping duty on biodiesel - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 04:33:34 PM

Adds comment from Indonesia biodiesel association, context

JAKARTA, March 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia has won an appeal against the European Union in a dispute over the bloc's anti-dumping duty on biodiesel, the Ministry of Trade said in a statement on Wednesday.

The European Court of Justice, the EU's highest court, ruled that the bloc must do away with anti-dumping duties of between 8.8 percent to 23.3 percent on imports of Indonesian biodiesel products.

Indonesia is one of the world's largest exporters of palm oil-based biodiesel. 

"With the elimination of these duties, businesses can once again export biodiesel to the EU," said Oke Nurwan, director general of foreign trade at the Indonesian trade ministry. 

He added that the elimination of duties was valid from March 16, 2018. 

The Indonesia Biofuel Producers Association welcomed the ruling.

"We're asking producers to prepare exports soon," said Paulus Tjakrawan, vice chairman of the association. 

He declined to give an estimate on expected export volumes.

The EU court ruling reinforces a decision made by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) earlier this year, which said the EU needed to bring its measures into conformity with WTO agreements.

Indonesia also plans to challenge anti-subsidy duties in the United States in a U.S. court and at the WTO.

Indonesia has also been pushing domestic biodiesel consumption as part of an ambitious plan to develop its biofuels industry. It plans to expand biodiesel subsidies to cover palm-oil blended fuels for use by its huge mining sector in addition to the power sector.

USDA attaché sees Indonesian palm oil output rising in 2018/19 - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 06:16:12 AM

March 20 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché in Indonesia:

Palm oil production is expected to increase from 38.5 million tons in 2017/18 to 40.5 million tons in 2018/19. Exports and stocks are forecast to increase. Harvested area is revised for 2008-2017 based on analysis of seed sales and seed trade data. Soybean imports are forecast up slightly to 2.85 million tons for 2018/19.

USDA attaché sees China 2018/19 soybean imports at 100 million T - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 03:09:01 AM

March 20 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché in China - Peoples Republic of:

China is the largest oilseed importer in the world with total oilseed imports at 98.42 million tons (MMT) in MY16/17. Chinese total soybean imports hit another record at 93.5 MMT, absorbing 62.6 percent of total world exports, and 61.2 percent of total U.S. soybean exports. Post estimates this growing trend will continue and drive soybean imports to reach 97 MMT in MY17/18, and hit 100 MMT in MY18/19. Rising incomes, urbanization and the modernization of the domestic feed and livestock sectors will continue fostering Chinese consumption of oilseed products. The United States soybean exports to China are expected to face fierce competition from South American countries in MY17/18 and beyond. Despite a change in China's government policy in MY16/17 encouraging farmers to plant more soybeans, growth in China's oilseed production remains constrained by limited arable land and stagnant yield. Thus, China's oilseed production is estimated to rise modestly to 58.55 MMT in MY17/18 and forecast up slightly to 58.6 MMT in MY18/19. Since its implementation in MY16/17, USDA and U.S. exporters have actively worked to meet China's new exporter registration requirements for grain and oilseed (known as Decree 177). In January 2018, U.S. exporters for grain and oilseeds successfully completed the registration process.

WRAPUP 1-Powell's Fed likely to raise rates, may upgrade 2018 outlook - Reuters News

21-Mar-2018 01:00:00 PM

• Financial markets focused on 2018 rate hike path

• Fed policy statement due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT)

By Jonathan Spicer

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at its first policy meeting under Chairman Jerome Powell and may signal more hikes are coming in response to tax cuts and government spending that could further stoke a robust U.S. economy. 

The U.S. central bank projected late last year that it would lift rates three times in 2018, but some investors believe the fiscal stimulus and recent hints of inflation pressures will push policymakers to add an additional increase to the mix. 

The Fed is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Powell is due to hold a press conference half an hour later.

Fed officials have speculated in recent weeks that the stimulus could drive more Americans into an already tight labor market and lift inflation to the central bank's 2 percent target, or much above that level if the economy gets too hot.

Yet analysts are split over whether the Fed, which is wary of an early misstep under its new leadership, will raise policy tightening expectations until more price pressures are clearly evident, especially given outside risks to the economy such as a possible global trade war.

"A prudent institution would probably give more weight to the facts, at least for the moment," Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist who is now a partner at Cornerstone Macro, wrote in a note predicting the Fed would stick with three projected rate increases for this year. 

The Fed's drive to stimulate the world's largest economy in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession is drawing to a close. It raised its benchmark overnight lending rate three times last year, to a range of 1.25 to 1.50 percent, as joblessness fell and economic growth accelerated. It is expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday.

With futures markets anticipating another increase in June, Powell's Fed could leave its rate outlook unchanged until then to see how the economy absorbs the $1.8 trillion in stimulus expected from the Trump administration tax cuts and planned spending. 

POWELL IN SPOTLIGHT

While recent home sales and retail spending data have been on the weak side, the overall economic picture has brightened this year. Inflation has strengthened after remaining below the Fed's target for more than five years, and there have been more hints of wage gains. 

The central bank is expected on Wednesday to boost its economic growth forecasts for the next few years, and could project that the unemployment rate will fall well below the current 4.1 percent, which is seen as a low but stable level. 

The blockbuster U.S. jobs report for February could further convince Powell and his colleagues that the Fed's stated "gradual" rate hike path could carry on longer than previously thought. A sign of this would be a rise in the Fed's longer-term, or neutral, expected policy rate, currently at 2.8 percent.

Powell, who took over from former Fed chief Janet Yellen in early February, triggered a brief global market selloff when he told U.S. lawmakers late last month that he had grown more confident in the economic outlook. Yet worries over a new hawkish central bank are likely overblown given Powell's cautious, consensus-building approach. 

Seven of the 15 Fed policymakers who will update their forecasts on Wednesday have recently indicated the fiscal stimulus could boost their expectations for the economy, rate hikes, or for both, according to an analysis of public statements.

New York Fed President William Dudley, one of the most influential policymakers, said four rate increases this year would still be considered "gradual," noting that fiscal policy is turning "quite stimulative."

The comments suggested a shift "towards a potentially faster pace of tightening ... particularly with tax cuts now implemented and with an additional fiscal boost from federal spending arriving this year," Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note predicting that the Fed would signal on Wednesday that rates will rise four times this year.

Stock and Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St edges higher on oil jump, tech still soft - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 10:20:19 PM

• Facebook shares under pressure for second day

• Oracle slumps as Q3 cloud business disappoints

• FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday, policy guidance eyed 

• Indexes up: Dow 0.3 pct, S&P 0.02 pct, Nasdaq 0.03 pct 

Updates to open

By Sruthi Shankar

March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks inched higher on Tuesday with energy stocks leading the way thanks to a jump in oil prices but technology stocks remained on the defensive after the previous day's bruising selloff.

Oil rose to its highest level so far this month, lifted by tension in the Middle East and the possibility of further falls in Venezuelan output.

That helped push the S&P energy index up 0.9 percent.

S&P 500 technology stocks after a fleeting advance at the opening bell, were back modestly in the red, adding to Monday's steep losses when Facebook Inc's data privacy issues hit the sector.

Investors are also focused on the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting where it is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point. But the bigger question is how aggressive the U.S. central bank will be with monetary policy after that.

Traders currently expect two more rate hikes later this year, although they said policymakers could set a hawkish tone by forecasting four increases in their "dot plot" projections.

The past nine years of U.S. stock market gains have come with the Fed fostering an environment of easy money for the financial system, but it has begun gradually withdrawing that accommodation as the economy appears to be on healthier footing. Few economists expect new Fed chair Jerome Powell to alter the trajectory of the bank's anticipated rate path, but as it is his first meeting at the helm, investors have been somewhat on edge as the meeting approaches.

Aside from the Fed, the Trump administration is creating a stir with plans for up to $60 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports by Friday, targeting technology, telecommunications and intellectual property, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. 

"There's much more volatility in this marketplace and that's because there two main fears - monetary policy mistake and trade policy mistake and on backdrop is a lot of chaos that comes out of White House," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR in Boston.

At 10:14 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.34 percent at 24,694.22. The S&P 500 gained just 0.07 percent to 2,715 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1 percent to 7,351.60.

Shares of Facebook, which instigated the rout, were down 2.5 percent, adding to a 6.8 percent decline on Monday on reports that its users' data was misused.

Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg faced calls from both U.S. and European lawmakers demanding explanations and fears of increased regulation on how companies use data had sent shares of other internet stocks down as well.

Oracle was the biggest percentage decliner on the S&P 500, falling 9 percent after the business software maker reported quarterly revenue that missed Wall Street estimates on disappointing sales from its cloud business. 

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Dan Burns)

UPDATE 6-Oil rises to March high on Middle East tensions, Venezuela concerns - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 10:01:02 PM

• Geopolitics not fundamentals lift prices - analyst

• Relentless rise in U.S. crude output caps gains

• Economic crisis halves Venezuelan output since 2005

Updates with comment, refreshes prices

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - Oil rose on Tuesday to its highest level so far this month, as tension in the Middle East and the possibility of further falls in Venezuelan output helped offset the negative impact of growing U.S. crude production.

Brent crude futures rose $1.22 on the day to $67.27a barrel by 1343 GMT, their highest level since late February. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May crude futures rose $1.19 to $63.32 a barrel.

"The move today is more to do with geopolitical tensions than underlying fundamentals, but I don't expect that to last," PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said.

Saudi Arabia called the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers a "flawed agreement" on Monday, on the eve of a meeting between the Saudi crown prince and U.S. President Donald Trump. Both are highly critical of Iran.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers, raising the prospect of new sanctions that could hurt Iran's oil industry.

"Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran gave prices some support," Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta, said in a note.

Worries about falling production in Venezuela, whose output has been halved since 2005 to below 2 million barrels per day (bpd) due to an economic crisis, also supported oil markets.

The International Energy Agency said last week Venezuela was "vulnerable to an accelerated decline" and said such a disruption could tip global markets into deficit. 

PVM's Varga said Venezuela was a potential source of supply disruption, but he said the bigger challenge for OPEC and its allies was ensuring their efforts to balance the market through output curbs was not undermined by rising production elsewhere.

Output has climbed sharply in the United States, Canada and Brazil, as they ramp up production to benefit from higher crude prices that have been buoyed by the cuts made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies. The production rise has capped oil price gains.

Appetite for U.S. crude is adding to the headache facing OPEC. A widening discount of WTI to Brent crude makes it more attractive for foreign refiners to process U.S. oil. Brent is the benchmark for several Middle East and other global crudes.

"Oil prices have appreciated as continued tensions in the Middle East stimulated concerns over potential supply disruptions," said Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.

"While news of the United States potentially re-imposing sanctions on Iran could fuel the current upside, growing fears of rising U.S production are likely to create headwinds for bulls down the road." 

The premium of Brent crude to WTI rose above $4 a barrel on Tuesday, its widest in a month.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore

Editing by Edmund Blair)

CBOT Trends-Wheat up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 1-2, corn steady-down 1 - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 09:28:12 PM

CHICAGO, March 20 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of the grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Tuesday.

WHEAT - Up 3 to 5 cents per bushel

• Technical bounce after Monday's sharp sell-off, which was tied to much-needed moisture in the dry U.S. Plains winter wheat belt, along with fund long liquidation. The CBOT May contract dipped to a seven-week low at $4.50 a bushel in early moves, and K.C. May hard red winter wheat dipped to $4.69.

• The USDA late Monday rated 11 percent of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 12 percent one week earlier.

• CBOT May soft red winter wheat last traded up 3-1/2 cents at $4.54-1/4 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last up 3-1/2 cents at $4.73-3/4 and MGEX May spring wheat was last up 5 cents at $6.01-1/2.

CORN - Steady to down 1 cent per bushel

• Corn steady to weaker, with the CBOT May contract matching Monday's three-week low of $3.74-3/4 ahead of the daily break in trade. Funds hold a large net long position in CBOT corn, leaving the market open to bouts of long liquidation. Worries about the impact of a trade war on U.S. grain demand hang over the market.

• The USDA said private exporters sold 110,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Peru for delivery in the 2017/18 marketing year.

• CBOT May corn CK8 last traded down 1/4 cent at $3.74-3/4 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Up 1 to 2 cents per bushel

• Soybeans higher on a technical bounce a day after the CBOT May contract hit a one-month low at $10.21-3/4 a bushel. Expectations of an expansion in U.S. plantings this spring hang over the market, limiting rallies, along with concern about the impact of a trade war. 

• U.S. agricultural exports could be at risk in any retaliation over tariffs implemented by the White House, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said on Monday.

• CBOT May soybeans last traded up 1 cent at $10.23-1/2 per bushel.

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

Stock Market & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St drops as regulation worry sinks tech shares - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 04:16:18 AM

• Facebook tumbles as EU, U.S. urge probes of data practices

• Industrials fall as G-20 meeting looms, tariffs in focus

• Fed meeting on tap for Tuesday

• Dow down 1.35 pct, S&P 500 down 1.42 pct, Nasdaq down 1.84 pct

Updates to market close

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks dropped on Monday, with the S&P and Nasdaq suffering their worst day in just over five weeks, as concerns over increased regulation for large tech companies was spearheaded by a plunge in Facebook shares.

Facebook shares tumbled 6.8 percent as Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg faced calls from both U.S. and European lawmakers to explain how a consultancy that worked on President Donald Trump's election campaign gained access to data on 50 million Facebook users. 

The stock had its worst day since March 2014 and was down 10.8 percent from its closing record hit on Feb. 1, to put the stock squarely in correction territory, a drop of 10 percent from its high.

Facebook's plunge weighed heavily on the S&P technology sector, down 2.11 percent, as well as the Nasdaq, off more than 2 percent. Both indexes had their worst daily performance since Feb. 8. 

Other major companies with large tech businesses also dropped as recent concerns over regulation in the arena increased. Apple lost 1.53 percent while Alphabet fell 3 percent and Microsoft declined 1.8 percent.

"What's chilling to an investor is whether Facebook will be able to get advertisers to pay for the rich data they pay for today," said Kim Forrest, Senior Portfolio manager, Fort Pitt Capital, Pittsburgh.

"Investors are not only concerned about losing advertising dollars. They're also concerned these companies might come under relatively heavy regulation."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 335.6 points, or 1.35 percent, to close at 24,610.91, the S&P 500 lost 39.09 points, or 1.42 percent, to 2,712.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 137.74 points, or 1.84 percent, to 7,344.24.

The S&P once again fell below its 50-day moving average, seen as a technical support level, for the first time since early March. The Nasdaq came about 2 points from its 50-day before paring losses. 

Investors were also cautious ahead of a two-day monetary policy meeting at the U.S. Federal Reserve starting on Tuesday. 

The market believes the Fed is set to raise interest rates on Wednesday as Thomson Reuters data shows traders expect a quarter-percentage-point hike to be a certainty. Investors are now grappling with the question of whether an improving economy could lead to more hikes than anticipated.)

"Some of the more salient questions investors have is, has the tone of the Fed, which this time last year was certainly more skewed towards being dovish, has it now extended to becoming more hawkish?" said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. 

Industrials .fell 0.82 percent against the backdrop of worries about a global trade war, which are set to dominate a two-day G20 meeting in Argentina. 

Selling was broad, with each of the 11 major S&P sectors in the red. The CBOE Volatility index touched a high of 21.87 in one of its sharpest gains since the market sell-off in February.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.71-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.68-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.9 billion shares, compared to the 7.2 billion average over the last 20 trading days. 

UPDATE 3-Oil prices rise on Middle East tension, falling Venezuela output - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 03:46:16 PM

• Oil traders concerned at Saudi, Iran tensions

• Weak dollar also supports crude prices

• Relentless rise in U.S. crude output caps gains

Adds U.S. exports, updates prices

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose by almost 1 percent on Tuesday, lifted by a weak dollar, tensions in the Middle East and concerns of a further fall in Venezuelan output.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $62.61 a barrel at 0744 GMT, up 55 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their previous close.

Brent crude futures were at $66.53 per barrel, up 48 cents, or 0.7 percent.

"Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran gave prices some support," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta in a note. 

Futures traders also pointed to general dollar weakness as a supporter for crude.

A weaker greenback makes imports of dollar-denominated crude cheaper for countries using other currencies at home, potentially spurring demand.

Worries about Venezuela's tumbling crude production also supported oil markets.

The International Energy Agency said last week that Venezuela, where an economic crisis has cut oil production by almost half since early 2005 to well below 2 million barrels per day (bpd) was "clearly vulnerable to an accelerated decline", and that such a disruption could tip global markets into deficit. 

Still, surging U.S. crude oil production, which has risen by more than a fifth since mid-2016, to 10.38 million bpd, has been looming over oil markets.

U.S. output is now higher than that of top exporter Saudi Arabia. Only Russia produces more, at around 11 million bpd, although U.S. output is expected to overtake Russia's later this year as well.

Soaring U.S. output, as well as rising output in Canada and Brazil, is undermining efforts by the Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to curb supplies and bolster prices.

Rising U.S. oil output isn't just being refined at home either, as WTI's widening discount to Brent makes U.S. crude exports attractive. 

"Spot Brent crude oil prices averaged $3.36 per barrel more than WTI prices in 2017 compared with just $0.40 per barrel more in 2016, providing a price incentive to export U.S. crude oil into the international market," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services International in a note.

Brent's current premium over WTI is almost $4 per barrel. 

With U.S. oil increasingly making its way into the world, many analysts expect global oil markets to flip from slight undersupply in 2017 and early this year into oversupply later in 2018.

PRECIOUS-Gold off two-week lows ahead of Fed meet - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 12:11:50 PM

• Fed expected to signal faster increases in U.S. rates

• SPDR Gold holdings rise 1.26 pct on Monday

(Updates with commentary, prices)

By Nithin ThomasPrasad

March 20 (Reuters) - Gold was firm on Tuesday, having recovered from over a two-week low hit in the previous session, as traders waited to gauge the path of U.S. monetary policy for the rest of the year from the two-day Federal Reserve meeting that kicks off later in the day.

Spot gold was flat at $1,316.44 per ounce at 0353 GMT. In the previous session, it touched $1,307.51 an ounce, its lowest since March 1.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery dropped 0.1 percent to $1,316.10 per ounce.

"While the market has all but factored-in a rate hike, the focus will remain on the commentary and whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints at further rate hikes in 2018," ANZ analysts said in a note.

Powell is expected to hike interest rates and signal three more increases this year at the Fed policy meeting.

Though a rate hike today has been factored into the current price, uncertainty remains as to how further tariffs in the United States will impact global trade, said Cameron Alexander, an analyst with Thomson Reuters-owned metals consultancy GFMS.

"This will likely escalate with a tit-for-tat response from China, which won't help."

Prices for the yellow metal have not dipped below the $1,300 an-ounce level since the beginning of the year and have been trading in a $23 range since March 8.

A hike of more than 25 basis points would push prices lower, while a significant reaction from China and European countries on (U.S.) tariffs would drive prices higher, said Alexander.

Higher interest rates tend to boost the U.S. dollar and push bond yields up, pressuring gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while political and financial uncertainty push up safe-haven demand for the yellow metal.

Holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, holdings rose 1.26 percent, their best one-day rise since Jan. 18, to 850.84 tonnes on Monday from 840.22 tonnes on Friday. 

Meanwhile, Asian shares fell after investors took profits in high-flying U.S. technology shares on fears of stiffer regulation as Facebook came under fire following reports it allowed improper access to user data. 

Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.1 percent to $16.32 per ounce after matching Friday's three-month low in the previous session.

Platinum was nearly unchanged at $952.70 per ounce after hitting its lowest since Jan. 3 on Monday. Palladium declined 0.28 percent to $987.25 per ounce.

VEGOILS-Palm oil gains on stronger export data - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 12:40:40 PM

• Palm in line for second straight day of gains

• Malaysian exports rose 15.3 pct on-month during March 1-15 - AmSpec

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed in early trade on Tuesday and were set for a second straight session of gains on the back of stronger export data.

The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.3 percent to 2,432 ringgit ($621.36) a tonne at the midday break. 

It rose as much as 0.8 percent in early trade before paring some gains. Trading volumes stood at 25,220 lots of 25 tonnes each at noon on Tuesday.

"The market is up on stronger export figures today," said a palm oil futures trader, referring to data released by an inspection company before the midday break.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1 to 20 rose 15.3 percent to 913,091 tonnes from the 791,992 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1 to 20, said company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, are expected to pick up in the coming weeks as buyers stock up ahead of Ramadan which begins in mid-May this year.

The Muslim holy month sees devotees break day-long fasts with communal feasting, which incurs higher usage of palm oil for cooking purposes. Buyers in regions such as the Middle East usually start increasing purchases of palm oil one to two months ahead of the festivities.

In other related oils, the Chicago Board of Trade's May soybean oil contract was down 0.2 percent, while the May soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.7 percent. 

The Dalian May palm oil contract declined 0.1 percent.

Palm oil prices are impacted by movements in rival edible oils as they compete in the global vegetable oils market. 

COLUMN-Did recent rains help Argentina's soybeans? -Braun - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 02:00:00 PM

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

CHICAGO, March 20 (Reuters) - Some market analysts would say that the Argentine soybean crop is as good as dead, as many forecasts have been slashed to multiyear lows.

But that may not be the case as rains glossed the area last weekend and may do so again this weekend, and the crops may be in a position to benefit from this moisture.

A substantial drought has thinned harvest hopes for many soybean farmers in Argentina, which is the leading exporter of soybean products. Many analysts are now leaning more heavily toward top producers Brazil and the United States to make up for the lost supply.

Indeed, Argentina's harvest will not be great, but there is a chance that losses do not end up as large as some expect.

Not all of the production regions received rain last weekend, but some areas may have received up to an inch (25 mm) - much more than has recently been observed. Late on Monday, weather models suggested this could happen again on or around Saturday.

Most importantly, the recent and expected moisture is not necessarily too late to make a difference because the yield-determining phase of growth is still very much in progress.

As of Thursday, about 72 percent of soybeans were still in the pod-filling stage in the province of Buenos Aires, judging from weekly data published by Argentina's agriculture ministry. Cordobá had 78 percent of its crop still in this stage, and together the two provinces account for roughly two-thirds of the country's bean production.

About 6 percent of the soybeans in each of these provinces were in the flowering stage and the rest were in the maturation process.

The No. 3 province of Santa Fe has been hit harder by the drought. The crops are in considerably worse condition than in the top provinces and 41 percent of the soybeans were already maturing as of March 15.

So far in March, crop conditions in the leading producers have not fallen nearly as sharply as during the month of February.

As of March 15, about 60 percent of the soybeans in Cordobá and 61 percent of those in Buenos Aires were in good or very good state, compared with 64 percent for both at the start of the month. The Feb. 1 rating was 78 percent in Buenos Aires and 87 percent in Cordobá.

Late last week, Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange chopped its peg for the country's soy crop to 40 million tonnes from last month's 46.5 million. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange recently revised its outlook to 42 million tonnes, significantly lower than its original projection of 54 million.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture sharply dropped its number earlier this month to 47 million tonnes from 54 million, but its harvested area estimate remains 1.5 million hectares higher than the planted area peg from the country's agriculture minister.

USDA had called for the 2017-18 Argentine soybean crop to hit 57 million tonnes in its original forecast last May. 

GOOD TO KNOW

Industry-wide soybean harvest estimates for Argentina have been slashed over the last several weeks in response to the bone-dry conditions. But Argentine-based analysts as well as the exchanges may have a history of "over-slashing."

In 2016 persistent, heavy rains were cause for great concern during the critical stretches of Argentina's soybean campaign. Harvest pegs dropped as low as 52 million tonnes on fears that more than a million hectares had possibly been lost to flooding. These lowball estimates were mostly introduced into the marketplace around April or May, after harvest began.

Rains also caused a stir in 2017 along with some patches of dryness, causing the Argentine exchanges to drastically cut production to around 53 million tonnes in January, which was basically just after planting had concluded. However, they began increasing numbers again in the subsequent months as decent weather prevailed.

Yields were also likely underestimated in the previous two years, which contributed to the lower estimates in addition to the uncertainties around harvested area.

Argentina's agriculture ministry maintains that the 2016 soybean harvest hit 58.8 million tonnes while the 2017 harvest was a more modest 55 million. USDA claims 56.8 million and 57.8 million tonnes were raised in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

It is worth pointing out that USDA was generally on the higher side of market forecasts for Argentina's soybeans during 2016 and 2017. 

Crops are obviously faring much worse this year, though. The 2018 season has been one of the most trying in a long time, perhaps ever for some of the country's farmers.

While the latest and upcoming rains in Argentina could not possibly reverse all the damage that has been done, it would be unwise to rule Argentina's season completely over just yet.

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)

GRAINS-Wheat prices firm after deep losses, rains aid drought-hit U.S. winter crop - Reuters News

20-Mar-2018 11:23:45 AM

• Wheat rises 1 pct after steepest 3-day loss since 2013

• Rains in parts of U.S. Plains ease some drought concerns

Adds details, quotes

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat prices rose on Tuesday, clawing back some ground from their biggest three-day decline since 2013 after rains brought relief to the parched U.S. winter wheat crop in the southern Plains.

Corn ticked higher to end a four-session losing streak, while soybeans edged up following steep losses on Monday.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active wheat contract had risen 1 percent to $4.55-1/4 a bushel by 0305 GMT. The market had slid 7.8 percent in the previous three sessions, the biggest three-day decline since April, 2013. 

Corn was up 0.2 percent at $3.75-3/4 a bushel, having dropped 2 percent on Monday. Soybeans gained 0.2 percent to $10.25 a bushel, having fallen 2.6 percent in the last session.

"(There was) some weekend rain in some U.S. hard red winter wheat regions and model projections suggested more to come," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"Investors are also heavily long and the swing in momentum may be prompting them to sell. U.S. wheat prices had also made U.S. exports uncompetitive, so trade buying was minimal."

A winter storm brought beneficial rain and snow on Monday to portions of the southern U.S. Plains. The region's hard red winter wheat crop has endured months of drought.

The storm produced about 1 inch (2.5 cm) of moisture across northern, central and eastern Kansas, the biggest U.S. wheat-growing state. It also hit Nebraska and northern Colorado.

The region's hard red winter wheat is starting to emerge from dormancy and resume spring growth, a phase that ratchets up its need for moisture.

After the market closed on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 11 percent of the winter wheat in top state Kansas in good-to-excellent condition, down from 12 percent a week earlier. Wheat ratings also declined in Texas.

For corn, some analysts cited pressure from rains in crop areas of Argentina.

Wheat from Australia was offered at the lowest price of $306 a tonne (c&f) in Iraq's tender to purchase a minimum 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat which closed on Monday. 

Active trading in CME Group's new cash-settled futures for Black Sea grain suggests the exchange may have found a way to tap into booming Black Sea export trade after an unsuccessful earlier foray in the region.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat and soymeal futures on Monday and small net buyers of soyoil futures.

Grains Related News.

CBOT Trends-Wheat down 7-10 cents, soybeans down 13-16 cents, corn down 4-6 cents - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 09:17:37 PM

CHICAGO, March 19 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of the grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Monday.

WHEAT - Down 7 to 10 cents per bushel

• Rain in U.S. Plains during weekend, good soil moisture in key growing areas of Black Sea region weigh on prices. Most-active CBOT soft red winter wheat contract hit lowest since Feb. 22 overnight. 

• The supplement to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments report showed large speculator widened their net short position in CBOT wheat by 4,755 contracts in the week to March 13, to 48,200 lots.)

• For K.C. hard red winter wheat, the CFTC's supplemental report showed large speculators expanded their net long by 4,182 contracts, to 25,376 lots, the biggest since August. 

• CBOT May soft red winter wheat last traded down 7-1/2 cents at $4.60-1/4 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last down 15-1/2 cents at $4.84 and MGEX May spring wheat  was last down 2-3/4 cents at $6.09.

CORN - Down 4 to 6 cents per bushel

• Weakness in soybeans and wheat weighs on corn, which hit lowest since Feb. 27 during overnight trading. CBOT May corn dropped through 200-day and 30-day moving averages during overnight trading session.

• The supplement to the CFTC's weekly commitments report showed large speculators widened their net long position in CBOT corn by about 66,000 contracts in the week to March 13, to 266,728 lots, the biggest since June 2016.

• CBOT May corn last traded down 4-1/4 cents at $3.78-1/2 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Down 13 to 16 cents per bushel

• Falling on long liquidation, expectations of big plantings in United States this spring. Showers in Argentina during the weekend contributed to bearish tone but rainfall totals were below expectations in parched growing areas.

• Benchmark CBOT May soybean futures contract dropped below its 30-day moving average during overnight trading.

• The CFTC's weekly commitments report showed large speculators trimmed their net long position in CBOT soybeans by about 1,900 contracts in the week to March 13, to 147,045 lots.

• CBOT May soybeans last traded down 15-1/4 cents at $10.34-1/4 per bushel.

Crude Oil and Gold Related News.

Oil prices slip but Saudi-Iran tensions limit losses - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 07:12:51 PM

• Middle East tensions prevent further price drops

• U.S. rig count rises back to 800 - Baker Hughes

• Climbing U.S. output puts pressure on prices

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Monday after rallying at the end of last week, but tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran helped limit losses.

Prices had climbed on Friday after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the kingdom would develop nuclear weapons if arch-rival Iran did.

Gold hits two-week low ahead of Fed meeting but seen bouncing - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 07:06:23 PM

• Investors await Fed forward policy guidance

• Platinum touches lowest in more than 2 months

(Adds analyst comment, updates prices, changes dateline to LONDON)

By Eric Onstad

LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Gold touched its lowest in more than two weeks on Monday as markets remained nervous ahead of a U.S. central bank meeting that could raise interest rates and signal three more increases this year.

The price of gold has bounced after each of the five previous U.S. rate hikes and is expected to again, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins on Tuesday, with the U.S. central bank expected to raise interest rates for the first time this year on Wednesday.

With an increase of 25 basis points seen as a done deal, one key focus is whether Fed policymakers forecast four rate hikes this year instead of the three projected at the December meeting.

Market & Commodities Related News

45 U.S. trade groups urge Trump to avoid tariffs against China - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 07:44:47 AM

By Pete Schroeder

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) - Forty-five U.S. trade associations representing some of the largest companies in the country are urging President Donald Trump not to impose tariffs on China, warning it would be "particularly harmful" to the U.S. economy and consumers.

The organizations said in a letter sent to Trump on Sunday that potential tariffs on China would raise prices on consumer goods, kill jobs and drive down financial markets.

The letter marks the latest in a growing rift between Trump and the business community on trade policies, as the president has begun to take more aggressive steps he says are needed to protect domestic industry.

"We urge the administration not to impose tariffs and to work with the business community to find an effective, but measured, solution to China's protectionist trade policies and practices that protects American jobs and competitiveness," the groups wrote.

"Tariffs would be particularly harmful," they said.

The groups called on Trump to work with trade allies to push for changes to China's policies. The business groups said while they had serious concerns about China's approach to trade, unilateral tariffs by the United States would only separate the country from allies, and encourage them to replace the U.S. business presence in China when Beijing retaliates.

Trade associations publicly pushing back include the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the Information Technology Industry Council.

The Trump administration is said to be preparing tariffs against Chinese information technology, telecoms and consumer products in an attempt to force changes in Beijing's intellectual property and investment practices.

The Republican president recently announced plans to impose tariffs on certain steel and aluminum imports, despite opposition from some business sectors. 

The groups also called on Trump to allow industry experts to comment on the economic impact of any changes in trade policy before the measures take effect.

"We urge the administration to take measured, commercially meaningful actions consistent with international obligations that benefit U.S. exporters, importers, and investors, rather than penalize the American consumer and jeopardize recent gains in American competitiveness," they said.

UPDATE 3-Oil prices fall as increased U.S. drilling points to higher output - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 03:48:06 PM

• U.S. rig count rises back to 800 -Baker Hughes

• Middle East tensions prevent further price drops

• Falling Venezuelan output seen as risk to supply 

Adds Rosneft output figures, comment, updates prices

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, March 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as increased drilling in the United States pointed to more output, raising concerns about a return of oversupply.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $62.14 a barrel at 0739 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their previous close.

Brent crude futures were at $65.99 per barrel, down 22 cents, or 0.3 percent.

Monday's price falls in part reversed increases last Friday, which came on concerns over tensions in the Middle East.

On a simple supply versus demand basis, however, oil markets are facing the possibility of a renewed glut after being in a slight deficit for much of last year.

U.S. drillers added four oil rigs in the week to March 16, bringing the total count to 800, the weekly Baker Hughes drilling report said on Friday.

"Surging U.S. production will hamper exponential growth in crude oil prices," Singapore-based brokerage Phillip Futures said on Monday.

The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, is much higher than a year ago as energy companies have boosted spending. 

Thanks to the high drilling activity, U.S. crude oil production has risen by more than a fifth since mid-2016, to 10.38 million barrels per day (bpd), pushing it past top exporter Saudi Arabia.

Only Russia produces more, at around 11 million bpd, although U.S. output is expected to overtake Russia's later this year as well. 

Soaring U.S. output, as well as rising output in Canada and Brazil, is undermining efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to curb supplies and bolster prices.

Amid Russia's efforts to restrain output, Russian oil giant Rosneft said on Monday that its fourth quarter 2017 liquid hydrocarbon production reached 56.51 million tonnes, raising its full-year output by 7.3 percent to 225.5 million tonnes, or 4.53 million bpd. 

Many analysts expect global oil markets to flip from slight undersupply in 2017 and early this year into oversupply later in 2018. 

"Let's face it, there is still too much oil," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker with Freight Investor Services in Dubai in a note.

One risk seen to supplies, however, is Venezuela.

The International Energy Agency said last week that Venezuela, where an economic crisis has cut oil production by almost half since early 2005 to well below 2 million bpd, was "clearly vulnerable to an accelerated decline", and that such a disruption could tip global markets into deficit despite soaring U.S. output. 

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein; editing by Joseph Radford and Richard Pullin)

PRECIOUS-Gold falls for fourth day as dollar stays firm ahead of Fed meeting - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 04:01:13 PM

• Investors eye Fed policy projections

• Platinum touches lowest in over 2 months

(Updates prices)

By Eileen Soreng

March 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices extended losses into a fourth session on Monday and hit a more than two-week low, with the dollar remaining supported as investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,310.03 per ounce at 0735 GMT. Prices fell to $1,307.51 earlier in the session, their lowest since March 1.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery dropped 0.2 percent to $1,309.40 per ounce.

"I think the overall economic recovery is good enough for the (U.S.) central bank to consider a faster pace of normalization of monetary policies," said Mark To, head of research at Hong Kong's Wing Fung Financial Group.

A two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins on Tuesday, with the U.S. central bank expected to hike interest rates for the first time this year.

"It is somehow expected and is already priced in the market so I stick to my prediction that precious metals, with gold included, are going to have range-bound trading, unless something really surprising happens," said To.

With a 25 basis point rate hike seen as a done deal, one key focus is on whether Fed policy makers forecast four rate hikes this year instead of the three they had projected at December meeting.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, becoming less attractive to investors as it does not bear interest.

The dollar inched higher against a basket of major peers on Monday as traders braced for the Fed meeting and as the increased threat of trade protectionism kept markets on edge. 

The dollar index was up 0.1 percent at 90.302. On Friday, it hit a two-week high near 90.38, following strong U.S. economic data. 

"Potential market headwinds from the underlying (susceptibility) to risk-appetite, heightened (geo) political tensions, inflation concerns, Russia tensions, to name a few, could help keep the floor on gold prices in check," Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA, said in a note.

Gold speculators cut their net long position by 16,153 contracts to 145,659 contracts, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data. This was the smallest net long position since early January.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.3 percent at $16.26 per ounce and palladium inched 0.1 percent lower to $993.90 per ounce.

Platinum was 0.5 percent lower at $938.49 per ounce after falling to its lowest since Jan. 3 at $936.50.

UPDATE 1-Speculators cut net long positions in COMEX gold, copper -CFTC - Reuters News

17-Mar-2018 03:51:29 AM

Adds background, details, table

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - Hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net long positions in COMEX gold and copper contracts in the week to March 13, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.

Speculators raised their net short position in silver futures and options contracts, the data showed.

Gold speculators cut their net long position by 16,153 contracts to 145,659 contracts, according to the CFTC data. This was the smallest net long position since early January.

During the week, spot gold prices slipped as equities rallied after strong U.S. jobs data boosted risk appetite. This shored up expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would press ahead with further interest rate rises this year.

Higher interest rates make gold less attractive since bullion does not bear interest.

Speculators trimmed their net long position in copper by 1,419 contracts to 27,357 contracts, the CFTC data showed.

Silver speculators raised their net short position by 5,356 contracts to 16,188 contracts, according to the data.

FCPO Related News.

VEGOILS-Palm supported by weaker ringgit, rising demand outlook - Reuters News

19-Mar-2018 01:12:25 PM

• Palm hits one-week low of 2,407 rgt/T
• Softer gains in U.S. soyoil capping palm's gains - Trader

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up in early trade on Monday supported by weakness in the ringgit, its currency of trade, and as traders were bullish about prospects of improving demand.

The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.4 percent to 2,425 ringgit ($620.05) a tonne at the midday break, after falling to a one-week low of 2,407 ringgit earlier in the session.

Trading volumes stood at 22,858 lots of 25 tonnes each at noon on Monday.

"The market is supported in anticipation of better exports... But lower soyoil seems to be checking palm's upside," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader, referring to soyoil on the U.S. Chicago Board of Trade.

Another trader in Kuala Lumpur added that a slightly weaker ringgit also added to palm's gains, as this makes the edible oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

The ringgit slipped 0.1 percent to 3.9110 against the dollar on Monday afternoon.

Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, weakened 2-5 percent in the first half of March versus the corresponding period in February, according to shipment data.

Demand is expected to pick up from regions such as the Middle East, as buyers stock up ahead of Ramadan which begins in mid-May this year.

The Muslim holy month sees devotees break day-long fasts with communal feasting, which incurs higher usage of palm oil for cooking purposes. Buyers usually start increasing purchases of palm oil one to two months ahead of the festivities.

In other related oils, the Chicago Board of Trade's May soybean oil contract rose 0.1 percent, while the May soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.4 percent.

The Dalian May palm oil contract was also down 0.4 percent.

Palm oil prices are impacted by movements in rival edible oils as they compete in the global vegetable oils market.

Metals & Agriculture Related News.

PRECIOUS-Gold dips, down for week; market braces for Fed rate hike - Reuters News

17-Mar-2018 01:55:31 AM

• Gold down 0.8 percent this week
• Investors braced for U.S. rate hike next week
• U.S. political uncertainty fuels some safe-haven demand

(Updates prices; adds comment, additional byline, NEW YORK to dateline)

By Renita D. Young and Peter Hobson

NEW YORK/LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Gold prices dipped on Friday and were set for their biggest weekly fall in three weeks on pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week for the first time this year.

Losses were limited by political tumult in the United States which fueled safe-haven demand for bullion.

A Fed rate hike generally lifts bond yields, making non-yielding bullion less attractive. Higher U.S. interest rates also tend to strengthen the dollar, making gold more expensive for users of other currencies.

Spot gold dipped 0.3 percent, trading at $1,312.36 per ounce by 1:35 p.m. EST (1735 GMT). It was on track to end the week down 0.8 percent.

U.S. gold futures  for April delivery settled down $5.50, or 0.4 percent, at $1,312.30 per ounce.

Gold has tended in recent years to fall before U.S. interest rate hikes and rally afterwards.

"It recovers because the interest rates that we're seeing right now are not negative for gold," added Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.

Technical support for gold was at its 100-day moving average around $1,304, the psychologically important level of $1,300 and the 200-day moving average at $1,290.

Gold prices were supported by deepening U.S. political uncertainty and fears that U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel could disrupt global trade.

On Thursday, the Washington Post reported that Donald Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, would become the latest senior official to leave his post. The New York Times said U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena for documents related to Trump's businesses.

"There is a lot of confusion in the market about what the White House's strategy is on any large macro issues," said Mitsubishi Analyst Jonathan Butler.

"These factors should keep gold above $1,300, but it's more of a holding pattern and a generally supportive environment than something that is going to raise prices significantly."

Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said gold prices are low relative to other commodities.

A diplomatic crisis between Russia and Britain over the poisoning of a former Russian double agent on English soil underlined gold safe-haven appeal.

Among other precious metals, silver lost 0.5 percent at $16.29 an ounce, poised for a 1.9 percent weekly drop, its largest weekly decline since early February.

Platinum dropped 0.5 percent at $949.10 an ounce, on track for a 1.6 percent weekly decline. Palladium increased 0.7 percent at $993.10 an ounce, ending the week barely changed.

METALS-Copper hits one-week low on dollar and politics; China hopes limit falls - Reuters News

By Maytaal Angel

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Copper hit a one-week low on Friday as the dollar recovered and concerns lingered that U.S. tariffs could provoke a trade war, though hopes for strong growth in China kept losses in check.

The dollar recovered its losses versus a currency basket while Wall Street ticked higher after data showed strong U.S. factory output and improving consumer sentiment, though concerns lingered over turmoil in the U.S. government.

A strong U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals costlier for non-U.S. investors.

"The demand data and forecasts point to stronger demand, especially in China, so the deficit on the (copper) market is likely to continue this year," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank.

"The question is whether (this deficit) is not already priced in. We think it is. (Also) we expect through the year a somewhat stronger U.S. dollar."

* LME COPPER: Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 0.5 percent down at $6,888 a tonne, having hit a one-week low of $6,852.

* FED MEETING: ANZ said investors "are likely to remain cautious" ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, at which the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time this year.

* TRADE WAR: Markets were roiled this week after President Trump ousted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, viewed as a free trade proponent, and then sought to impose $60 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.

* OYU TOLGOI: Annual revenue from Mongolia's giant Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine fell 22 percent last year, with construction delays leaving it unable to take full advantage of higher prices. 

* CHILE COPPER: Polish copper producer KGHM said it expects daily copper ore output at its Chilean mine Sierra Gorda to increase by 18 percent next year from current levels. 

* CHINESE COPPER OUTPUT: China's refined copper output in January and February rose by 10.3 percent year on year to 1.48 million tonnes, data showed on Friday. 

* BRAZIL ALUMINA: Norwegian aluminium maker Norsk Hydro  has ordered 600 employees at its Brazilian Alunorte alumina refinery to go on temporary holiday to prevent layoffs at the plant. 

* ALUMINIUM INVENTORIES: Deliverable Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories rose by 87,303 tonnes to a record 934,216 tonnes, data showed on Friday.

* CHINA ALUMINA: Chinese alumina refineries in Henan province may delay the restart of their plants because of rising costs for the raw material bauxite amid supply tightness, research firm Antaike said.

* METALS PRICES: Aluminium ended flat at $2,085, zinc rose 0.8 percent to $3,260, lead closed 1.2 percent down at $2,383, tin dropped 0.1 percent to $21,000 and nickel  finished down 0.1 percent at $13,625.

GRAINS-U.S. wheat drops on U.S. rains forecast; soybeans up - Reuters News

17-Mar-2018 03:44:56 AM

• Corn follows wheat lower
• Soybeans rise for second day
• Rains on Sunday and Monday could aid U.S. wheat

New throughout, updates U.S. market activity to close, adds comments; changes byline, dateline, previously PARIS/SINGAPORE

By Michael Hirtzer

CHICAGO, March 16 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures dropped to a 2-1/2-week low on Friday on outlooks for rains by this weekend that should alleviate stress on some crops in the parched U.S. Plains growing region, traders said.

CBOT May contract wheat settled down 11 cents at $4.67-3/4 per bushel, bringing the losses for the week to more than 6 percent - the biggest weekly decline since August.

"They really increased rain chances from yesterday, through overnight and into the morning hours," Midwest Marketing Solutions analyst Brian Hoops said of the weather forecast.

Wheat had fallen below several moving averages on Thursday, triggering selling.

"There's bearish fundamentals and bearish technical action," Hoops added.

Rains on Sunday and Monday will benefit the northeastern half of the Plains wheat belt but will likely miss the main drought areas in southern Kansas and Oklahoma, according to meteorologists and analysts.

At the same time, favorable weather ahead of spring grain sowing in Black Sea producers Russia and Ukraine is bolstering the chances of another large wheat harvest due to good levels of soil moisture, analysts and industry officials said. 

"As far as the Black Sea production looks good, buyers are not too worried about U.S. drought," said one Singapore-based trader who sells wheat to millers across Southeast Asia. "Mills are not going to chase a rally in prices at this stage."

CBOT May corn settled down 4 cents at $3.82-3/4 per bushel, the lowest since March 1. Corn largely tracked losses in wheat in relatively light trading volume.

CBOT May soybeans settled up 8-3/4 cents at $10.49-1/2 per bushel, rising for the second straight session on fund buying linked to expectations of a smaller soy and corn harvest in Argentina due to drought.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the close of trading on Friday said speculative investors as of Tuesday slightly cut their net long in soybean futures and increased their corn net long.

The Rosario Grains Exchange on Thursday cut its estimate of Argentina's soy harvest to 40 million bushels from 46.5 million previously. 

That was also well below the 47 million tonnes forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) this month.

AG CFTC: Hedge Fund Managers Boost Net Bearish Soy Oil Bets

By Bloomberg Automation

(Bloomberg) -- 

Money managers have increased their bearish soy oil bets by 12,175 net-short positions to 21,221, weekly CFTC data on futures and options show.

• The net-short position was the most bearish in three weeks
• Long-only positions fell 4,544 lots to 69,391 in the week ending Mar. 13
• The long-only total was the lowest in three weeks
• Short-only positions rose 7,631 lots to 90,612
• The short-only total was the highest in three weeks