Monday, May 7, 2018

Stock & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares mostly higher, U.S. crude powers past $70 - Reuters News

07-May-2018 01:48:33 PM

  • Asia share markets mostly firmer, Nikkei flat as yen seesaws
  • Oil prices firm ahead of White House call on Iran deal
  • Relief on US wages data tempered by emerging market strains
  • Dollar uptrend pauses, supported by outlook for Fed hikes

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, May 7 (Reuters) - Most Asia markets firmed on Monday after a tame reading on U.S. wages lessened the risk of faster rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although Sino-U.S. trade tensions and a looming deadline for an Iranian nuclear deal lurked in the background.

Energy shares were on a roll as oil prices hit their highest in more than three years amid strains in Venezuela's output and talk of possible new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

President Donald Trump has set a May 12 deadline for Europeans to "fix" the deal with Iran over its nuclear program or he would refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for the oil-producing Islamic Republic.

Brent crude futures added 76 cents to $75.63 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed 64 cents to $70.36 to finally crack the $70 barrier.

The week ahead also has important readings on the health of the Chinese economy, and hence global demand, as well as the latest data on U.S. consumer price inflation.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan put on 0.2 percent, while Chinese blue chips rose 1.2 percent.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 inched up 0.36 percent and spread betters pointed to opening gains for the European bourses. Japan's Nikkei was flat, recouping losses as the yen shed its early gains.

Friday's U.S. jobs report showed unemployment dropping to a new cycle low of 3.9 percent yet wages remained benign, suggesting the Federal Reserve would keep raising rates but at a gradual pace.

That outlook cheered Wall Street where the Dow ended Friday up 1.39 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 1.28 percent and the Nasdaq 1.71 percent.

Apple Inc hit a record high after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc disclosed that it had raised its stake in the iPhone maker.

The recent run of solid U.S. economic news contrasts with a softer turn in European data and lifted the dollar to its highest for the year so far against the euro.

The single currency was last at $1.1957, having been down as deep as $1.1911 on Friday. The dollar also reached its highest since December against a basket of currencies and was last trading at 92.609.

It had less luck against the Japanese yen, in part because strains in emerging market currencies were supporting safe havens such as the yen. The dollar steadied at 109.14, having topped out around 110.05 last week.

"It's this recovery in the U.S. dollar – one based on the data flow in the U.S. against the rest of the world – which is catching many by surprise and causing ructions across emerging markets," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at CFD and FX provider AxiTrader.

Markets from Argentina to Turkey have been under intense pressure, in part because many of these countries have large amounts of U.S. dollar debt which gets more expensive to finance as the currency rises.

A firming U.S. dollar has also been negative for some commodities, with gold falling for a third straight week before bouncing slightly on Monday to $1,315.12 an ounce.

(Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)

 

 

 

UPDATE 5-Oil prices reach highest since Nov 2014 on Venezuela, Iran worries - Reuters News

07-May-2018 03:00:22 PM

  • Brent jumps to over $75 a barrel, WTI rises above $70 per barrel
  • Shanghai futures hit record price, volume and open interest
  • Economic crisis in Venezuela threatens its oil exports
  • U.S. deadline over Iran looms on May 12
  • But highest U.S. oil drilling since 2015 holds back market

Adds China crude open interest and volume record; updates prices

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - Key crude oil prices rose by 1 percent to their highest levels since late-2014 on Monday, pushed up by a deepening economic crisis in Venezuela and a looming decision on whether the United States will re-impose sanctions against Iran.

Brent crude oil futures were at $75.57 per barrel at 0650 GMT, up 70 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close. Earlier in the session, they touched their highest since November 2014 at $75.89 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 70 cents, or 1 percent, to $70.42 per barrel. Monday was the first time since November 2014 that WTI had climbed above $70 per barrel.

Meanwhile, China's Shanghai crude oil futures, launched in March, broke their dollar-converted record-high of $71.32 per barrel by rising as far as $72.54 on Monday.

Open interest and traded volumes for Shanghai crude also hit a fresh record on Monday.

Analysts warned that the deepening economic crisis in major oil exporter Venezuela threatened to further crimp its production and exports.

Shannon Rivkin, investment director of Australia's Rivkin Securities, said that oil prices had been driven up due to "growing concerns over the economic collapse of Venezuela and its oil industry, plus possible new sanctions against Iran from the Trump administration".

U.S. oil firm ConocoPhillips has moved to take key Caribbean assets of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA to enforce a $2 billion arbitration award, actions that could further impair PDVSA's declining oil production and exports.

Venezuela's oil output has halved since the early 2000s to just 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), as the South American country has failed to invest enough to maintain its petroleum industry.

Beyond Venezuela's woes, Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader, said "the big story this week is going to be about oil and the Iran Nuclear deal". Most market participants expect Trump to withdraw from the pact, he said.

Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter in 2016 after international sanctions against it were lifted in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear programme.

Expressing doubts over Iran's sincerity, Trump has threatened to walk away from the 2015 agreement by not extending sanctions waivers when they expire on May 12, which would likely result in a reduction of Iran's oil exports.

Looming over markets, however, is surging U.S. output, which has soared by more than a quarter in the last two years, to 10.62 million bpd.

U.S. output will likely rise further this year, towards or past Russia's 11 million bpd, as its energy firms keep drilling for more.

U.S. energy companies added nine oil rigs looking for new production in the week to May 4, bringing the total count to 834, the highest level since March 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said last Friday.

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein and Roslan Khasawneh; Editing by Richard Pullin and Joseph Radford)

 

 

 

FOREX-Dollar index at near 4-month high after U.S. jobs data - Reuters News

07-May-2018 12:24:14 PM

  • Dollar near 4-month high against basket of major currencies
  • Uncertainties on trade frictions, Iran nuclear deal hamper trade

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, May 7 (Reuters) - The dollar stayed near its 2018 peak on Monday after U.S. jobs and wages data did little to temper perceptions of strength in the U.S. economy, though renewed concerns about trade frictions could cloud its outlook.

The dollar index, stood at 92.461, down 0.1 percent but still near Friday's high of 92.908, which was its firmest level since late December.

The dollar index has risen for three straight weeks, maintaining its strength after Friday's mixed U.S. data.

The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected and the average hourly earnings, closely watched for signs of inflationary pressures, rose a less-than-expected 0.1 percent in April, leaving the annual increase at 2.6 percent.

The unemployment rate dropped to near a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent, although this was driven in part by Americans leaving the labour force.

None of this changed the perception that the Federal Reserve will likely hike interest rates at least twice, and possibly three times, by year-end.

In contrast, recent data suggested Europe's stellar growth last year is losing momentum, leading speculators to trim bets on the single currency on expectations the European Central Bank will wind down its stimulus.

The euro changed hands at $1.1962, not far from Friday's four-month low of $1.1910.

Data from U.S. financial watchdog published late on Friday showed speculators' net long position in the euro in Chicago's futures exchange declined only slightly in the latest week.

They held 120,568 contracts of net short positions, down from a record 151,476 set last month but still at a high level.

A wider measure of dollar positioning that includes contracts on some emerging market currencies showed net dollar shorts shrank to $18.32 billion, from a seven-year high of $28.18 billion two weeks earlier.

"Speculators' positioning has gone to extreme levels as they had been selling the dollar continuously," Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionism was one big reason many investors had shied away from the dollar earlier.

Some market participants expect worries over a trade war could return after talks between the United States and China produced little apparent progress.

In a sign that the trade tension is spilling over to other issues, Beijing and Washington came to loggerheads over how to refer to Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.

"Trade issues are likely to persist towards the U.S. mid-term elections. So in the long run, the dollar is likely to decline," said a currency trader at a Japanese bank.

Traders also kept an eye on the fate of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, from which Trump has threatened to pull out.

An escalating diplomatic standoff could have innumerable repercussions, including a further rise in oil prices and damage to investors' risk appetite.

Trump has said that unless European allies rectify "flaws" in Tehran's deal with world powers by May 12 he will refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for Iran.

Elsewhere, the British pound traded at $1.3538, near its four-month low of $1.3487 touched on Tuesday.

The dollar stood little changed at 109.10 yen, off its three-month high of 110.05 yen.

The yen's rebound was in part driven by short-covering by Japanese margin traders, especially against the Turkish lira, which fell to record lows during Japan's Golden Week holidays.

The lira fell more than 4 percent last week versus the dollar.

(Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)

 

 

 

ANALYSIS-Dollar surge bringing emerging market rate cut cycle to a halt - Reuters News

07-May-2018 02:00:00 PM

  • Surging dollar comes back to haunt emerging markets
  • Argentina facing classic currency attack
  • Expectations of more interest rate cuts being scaled back
  • Bond exodus faster than during 2013 'taper tantrum'

By Marc Jones and Karin Strohecker

LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - A resurgent dollar and higher borrowing costs are smashing through Argentina and Turkey's currencies like a wrecking ball and raising the likelihood more broadly that emerging markets' three-year long interest rate cutting cycle is at an end.

Emerging markets came into the year flying, riding on the back of a healthy global economy and rising commodity prices alongside tame inflation and a weak dollar. It looked more than likely that a wave of rate cuts would keep rolling, allowing a bond rally to continue.

From Brazil and Russia to Armenia and Zambia, developing countries, big and small, have been on a rate cutting spree. With hundreds of rate cuts since Jan. 2015, the average emerging market borrowing cost fell under 6 percent earlier this year from over 7 percent at the time.

Fund managers' profits too have soared in this time, with emerging local currency debt among the best performing asset classes, with dollar-based returns of 14 percent last year. Even in the first quarter of 2018, returns were a buoyant 4.3 percent

Now though, almost exactly five years since the so-called taper tantrum shook an emerging market rally, these gains appear to be on the cusp of reversal.

Argentina has jacked up its interest rates to 40 percent in response to a rout in its peso currency, while Turkey was also forced into a rate rise as its lira hit record lows against the dollar. Indonesia, after heavy interventions to stem rupiah bleeding, has also said it could resort to policy tightening.

As emerging currencies slide almost everywhere, yields on bonds denominated in emerging market currencies are back up near 6.2 percent and returns are now negative for 2018.

"The rate cut trade has unwound," Naveen Kunam, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors said, citing the increased uncertainty on monetary policy.

For decades, a rising dollar has spelt bad news for emerging markets and despite all the progress in the developing world in recent years, latest price moves show not that much has changed.

With the dollar on the rise, emerging currencies have weakened some 3 percent in the past two weeks, as measured by a JPMorgan index.

Figures from the Institute of International Finance this week showed that the result has been a faster exodus from EM debt than at a similar stage of the 2013 taper tantrum. At $5.5 billion in two weeks the IIF described it as the "ghost of tantrums past".

 

RATE EXPECTATIONS

It has looked as though emerging economies had the upper hand over their old enemy -- inflation. Inflation has fallen below target to record lows in Russia, slipped to five-month lows in India and is projected at a below-target 3.8 percent in Brazil this year.

Indonesian inflation in April was a 100 bps off year ago levels, data last week showed.

But the shifts of recent weeks have prompted some analysts to reassess whether interest rate cuts can continue. In Russia for instance, analysts have reduced their bets on rate cuts after the central bank held rates in late April and now predict only one or two moves this year versus earlier calls for deeper cuts.

Sberbank CIB analysts said they did not now expect a Russian rate cut to come before September.

India, like all energy-importing emerging economies, is being hit also by the oil price rise -- each $10 rise in oil prices adds 0.8 percent to inflation there, analysts at TS Lombard calculate.

In the past week, expectations for an interest rate hike in India over the coming 12 months have jumped -- markets now price more than two rate hikes compared to just over one, a week ago. Last year it was cutting rates.

The question emerging market policymakers may ask themselves has changed, said Sebastien Barbe, global head of EM research and strategy at Credit Agricole.

"Now the question for many central banks is: should they increase (rates) more quickly?" he said.

It is not only those that are normally vulnerable either. Even in the relatively calm backwaters of eastern Europe, the Czech central bank has warned it may have to raise rates again following a sudden slump in the crown.

All that is a huge blow to fund managers who have piled into the EM asset class in anticipation the returns would continue. It may be especially painful for newcomers -- a raft of new funds have launched this year, including one from Franklin Templeton's high-profile portfolio manager Michael Hasenstab.

Countries such as Indonesia where foreigners own a large share of their local bond markets have consequently been among the worst hit as investors jostle to sell.

"If there are worries, this money will get out," Credit Agricole's Barbe said.


(Additional reporting by Sujata Rao
Editing by Keith Weir)

 

 

 

PRECIOUS-Gold rises to 1-week high as dollar pauses rally - Reuters News

07-May-2018 12:12:41 PM

  • Dollar index eases from 4-month high hit on Friday
  • SPDR Gold holdings down 0.17 percent on Friday
  • Speculators cut net long positions in gold in week to May 1
  • Spot gold may bounce to resistance at $1,326/oz -technicals

(Adds comment, updates prices)

By Apeksha Nair

BENGALURU, May 7 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit their highest in a week on Monday, buoyed as the dollar slipped after marking its strongest level this year in the previous session.

Spot gold had risen 0.3 percent to $1,318.46 per ounce by 0332 GMT, after earlier touching its highest since late-April at $1,318.85.

U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up 0.3 percent at $1,319.10 per ounce.

"The dollar is a little bit under pressure. The key driver still remains the dollar and that is what we see," said Dominic Schnider at UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong.

The dollar index traded slightly below its 2018-peak early on Monday, after disappointing U.S. employment data for April and as concerns about trade frictions weighed on upward momentum.

Gold prices were also drawing support from political uncertainty surrounding markets, Schnider said, pointing to concurrent gains in the Japanese yen, which also tends to appreciate with higher uncertainty.

"The fact that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China for some ended up on the disappointing side could have added a little bit of support for gold."

Meanwhile, ANZ analysts said in note that gold prices pushed higher as investors focused on the relatively benign level of wage growth in the United States.

"This eased concerns that had built up over the past few weeks about a quicker rate hike cycle. The tepid economic data should see the U.S. Federal Reserve remain on a gradual tightening phase, and support investor sentiment for gold," ANZ said.

Two Federal Reserve officials on Friday said they were keeping an open mind on the total number of interest rate rises needed this year.

U.S. interest rate futures rose modestly on Friday, as traders still expect the Fed to raise key borrowing costs at its June 12-13 policy meeting in the wake of weaker-than-forecast growth in domestic payrolls and wages in April.

Gold is highly-sensitive to rising U.S. rates as these tend to boost the dollar in which it is priced.

Spot gold may bounce more to resistance at $1,326 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.17 percent to 864.13 tonnes on Friday.

Hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net long positions in COMEX gold by 62,378 contracts to 51,985 contracts in the week to May 1, U.S. data showed on Friday.

In other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.5 percent to $16.56 an ounce.

Platinum advanced 1.3 percent to $917.60 an ounce, having earlier hit its highest since April 25 at $918.70.

Palladium rose 1 percent to $976.50 an ounce, after earlier reaching its strongest since April 27 at $977.20.

 

(Reporting by Apeksha Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Pullin and Joseph Radford)

 

 

EXCLUSIVE-World's biggest gold ETF launching new low-fee fund- source - Reuters News

05-May-2018 02:39:57 AM

By Peter Hobson

- The World Gold Council, owner of the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund (ETF), is launching a new fund with a cut-price management fee to fend off rivals with lower charges, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The move is a sign that cost competition among gold ETFs is heating up after a price war in the much larger equities ETF sector slashed management fees. Gold ETFs allow buyers to invest in physical gold without having to buy and store the metal.

The council's SPDR Gold Trust, which launched in 2004 and trades using the ticker GLD, dominates the industry but its share of total bullion held by gold-backed funds has slipped below 50 percent from 75 percent at the start of the decade, Reuters data show.

GLD's gold holdings have risen 5 percent since the start of last year while rival iShares Gold Trust, which is run by investment manager BlackRock with a lower management fee, has grown 47 percent, by far the fastest growth among the five biggest gold ETFs tracked by Reuters.

Other low-fee funds such as Deutsche Asset Management's Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC are growing rapidly and others such as GraniteShares, launched last year, are popping up.

GLD charges a fee of 40 basis points, or 0.4 percent, of the value of an investment, around the higher end of the market, while iShares Gold and Xtrackers take 25 basis points and GraniteShares 20 basis points, near the bottom.

The council's new fund will charge a fee of around 25 basis points, said the source, describing it as a "countermove" by the council to rivals' gains.

The source said the council's two funds were designed to appeal to different audiences, with the new product targeted at investors looking to buy and hold gold who want a low management fee, and GLD aimed at financial investors who use its scale and liquidity to trade in and out of positions cheaply.

"The idea is that the new product grows without damaging the existing product," the source said.

The World Gold Council declined to comment.

To keep the offerings separate, shares in the new fund will represent a smaller allocation of gold than shares in GLD. This smaller share size will make it more expensive to move in and out of positions, encouraging financial investors to stick with SPDR, the source said.

The World Gold Council filed for the new ETF in November last year with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, but did not reveal its management fee or share size. It is expected to launch the fund in the second quarter.

 

(Reporting by Peter Hobson
Editing by Alexander Smith and Veronica Brown)

 

 

 

TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may test support at $10.29 - Reuters News

07-May-2018 02:26:01 PM

SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybeans July contract may test a support at $10.29 per bushel, a break below which could cause a loss to $10.17-1/4.

The support is provided by 76.4 percent Fibonacci projection level of downward wave c from $10.67-1/2. This wave is capable of travelling to $10.17-1/4.

The contract has broken a rising trendline. The break makes the target at $10.17-1/4 more likely. A pullback towards the line may have completed and the wave c is expected to resume towards $10.17-1/4.

Resistance is at $10.42-1/4, a break above which may lead to a gain to $10.55-1/2.

 

** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **

 

(Reporting by Wang Tao; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

 

 

 

COLUMN-Funds adopt record positions in both CBOT soymeal, soyoil -Braun - Reuters News

07-May-2018 01:00:00 PM

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

- Commodity funds opened the month holding record bullish views in Chicago-traded soybean meal and record bearish views in soybean oil, creating the most lopsided speculative positioning in history between the two soy products.

As of May 1, investors held an all-time bearish stance in the CBOT oilshare, which measures soyoil's share of value in the soy products. A lot of this has to do with a suspected tightening in global exportable soybean meal supply, led by both weather and logistical problems in lead exporter Argentina.

In the week ended May 1, hedge funds and other money managers boosted their CBOT soybean meal net long to a record 133,549 futures and options contracts from 105,421 in the prior week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The previous record for the managed money meal net long was 115,500 futures and options contracts set in the first week of March 2018.

Speculators in the "other reportables" category are not quite as bullish soybean meal as they had been back in February. But combining this position with the managed money position through May 1 yields a whopping 166,296 futures and options contracts.

Money managers' net short in CBOT soybean oil futures and options also hit a new record through May 1 of 73,540 contracts versus 52,726 in the week before. The previous record bean oil short was 64,537 contracts set in January 2014.

This was spurred on by strength in meal futures, which set across-the-board contract highs on Tuesday. Soybean oil had fallen victim to meal-oil spreads as well as healthy crush volumes out of the United States and weakness in other global vegoil markets.

But unlike the unanimous view toward meal, not all speculators are bearish soybean oil. Over the last couple of months, traders in the "other reportables" category have carried a record bullish stance toward the vegoil.

Soymeal futures on Tuesday hit their highest levels since June 2016, and in the days since, profit-taking and unwinding of long soymeal/short soyoil spreads have created a little more balance in the CBOT oilshare.

Traders estimate that commodity funds were straight sellers of soymeal and straight buyers of soyoil between Wednesday and Friday.

 

CORN AND SOYBEANS

In the week ended May 1, money managers increased their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 186,317 contracts from 122,877 in the prior week.

U.S. corn plantings were already expected to be down on the year and as of April 29, planting pace was the slowest in five years. Speculators had also been eyeing drought development for Brazil's heavily exported winter corn crop.

Money managers also extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options through May 1, to 177,047 contracts from 170,094 a week earlier.

Last week's soybean gains were largely linked to strength in soybean meal, because otherwise, traders have had a rather tepid view on soybeans over China's slapping of tariffs on U.S. beans last month.

The U.S.-China issues got the better of soybeans late last week, especially on Friday, as market-watchers were hoping for more progress from trade talks between Beijing and Washington. China's Xinhua news agency reported on Friday that the talks had ended with "relatively big" disagreements.

Trade sources indicate that commodity funds were net sellers of soybeans and very slight net sellers of corn over the last three sessions.

 

WHEAT

Speculators last week adopted their least bearish stance toward soft red winter wheat since early August. Through May 1, money managers slashed their net short in CBOT wheat to 28,702 futures and options contracts from 54,713 in the prior week.

Although investors were covering CBOT wheat shorts last week amid U.S. crop uncertainties, the establishment of new longs was a bigger factor in money managers' latest move.

In the five days ended May 1, K.C. July wheat futures surged 8 percent as market participants awaited the start of the annual hard red winter wheat tour through the top U.S. wheat state of Kansas. However, speculators may have believed that the market had already accounted for crop losses stemming from a historically dry growing season in the Southern Plains.

Money managers slightly trimmed bullish bets in K.C. wheat futures and options through May 1 to 39,231 contracts from 40,698 a week earlier, the result of a slight reduction in longs and an even slighter increase in shorts.

They also flipped back to a bullish stance in Minneapolis wheat through the same period, establishing a new net long of 1,000 futures and options contracts versus the net short of 1,435 contracts in the previous week.

Although positioning changes in hard red spring wheat have appeared relatively slight over the last few months, the latest number of outright managed money longs – 9,032 – is the largest since the beginning of September.

The wheat contracts surged again on Thursday as Kansas crop tour scouts pegged state production at the smallest volume since 1989. But rains in the U.S. Plains and technical selling pressured prices on Friday.

Market estimates suggest that commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat futures between Wednesday and Friday.

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)

 

 

 

VEGOILS-Palm sees strongest jump in 3 weeks tracking related oils - Reuters News

07-May-2018 12:47:14 PM

  • Palm jumps tracking gains in crude oil, U.S. soyoil
  • U.S. soyoil also lends support to palm - Trader
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board to release data on May 10

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures clocked their highest gains in three weeks in early trade on Monday, tracking an uptrend in crude oil prices and supported by soyoil on the U.S. Chicago Board of Trade.

The benchmark palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 1.6 percent to 2,377 ringgit ($603.30) a tonne at the midday break, its biggest gain since April 17.

It earlier rose as much as 1.7 percent to 2,379 ringgit, its highest level since May 2.

Trading volume stood at 15,684 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"Palm market rose tracking crude oil's price movement, which went up a lot on Friday. On a favourable palm oil to gas oil spread, there is new buying for crude palm oil," said a Kuala Lumpur based trader.

"Gains in rival oilseed are also lending support."

Palm oil prices are impacted by movements of crude oil, as it is used as feedstock to make biodiesel. Rising oil prices in recent weeks have made biodiesel production more economical, as gas oil's price premium over palm last widened to $56 per tonne on Monday.

Brent crude oil futures rose above $70 a barrel on Monday for the first time since November 2014, on the back of a deepening economic crisis in major oil exporter Venezuela.

In other related oils, gains in U.S. soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade provided additional support to palm. The Chicago July soybean oil contract was last up 0.5 percent on Friday.

Palm oil is impacted by movements in rival edible oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Meanwhile, the September soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.9 percent, while the Dalian September palm oil contract was up 0.8 percent.

Further movement in the palm market will depend on upcoming official data release by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Malaysian palm oil inventories at end-April are expected to fall 4.1 percent to 2.23 million tonnes, the lowest in six months, according to a Reuters poll of nine traders, planters and analysts.

Meanwhile, the survey respondents also forecast that April exports will fall 5.5 percent on-month to 1.48 million tonnes, but output will remain flat at 1.57 million tonnes.

Official data for the month of April is scheduled for release on Thursday, May 10 at around 0430 GMT.

(Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Sunil Nair)

 

 

 

GRAINS-Wheat drops for 2nd day as US weather improves; soybean prices rise - Reuters News

07-May-2018 11:34:31 AM

  • Chicago wheat futures fall 0.7 pct, down for 2nd day
  • Rains improve crop condition in drought-hit U.S. Plains
  • Soybeans tick higher after Friday's losses, corn down

Adds comment, detail

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures slid 0.7 percent on Monday, falling for a second session as an improving weather outlook for the U.S. winter crop weighed on prices.

U.S. soybeans ticked higher, but gains were capped by a lack of demand from top importer China amid a trade dispute between the two nations.

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active wheat contract has dropped 0.7 percent to $5.22-3/4 a bushel by 0313 GMT, adding to Friday's 2.2-percent decline.

Soybeans climbed 0.2 percent to $10.38-1/2 a bushel, while corn slid 0.1 percent to $4.05-3/4 a bushel.

"It is a weather-driven market, prices are coming under pressure as there have been rains in some parts of the U.S. Plains and there are forecasts of more rains, but it is not a complete reversal of trend," said an India-based commodities analyst.

Recent rains have eased concerns over dryness hurting the Hard Red Winter wheat crop in the U.S. southern Plains.

However, scouts on an industry tour on Thursday projected that drought-hit Kansas, the top U.S. wheat-growing state, may produce its smallest crop since 1989.

Forecasts of bumper production in the Black Sea region are also pressuring wheat prices.

For soybeans, there is disappointment that trade talks between Washington and Beijing did not move closer to a deal to resolve the mounting dispute that has crimped U.S. crop sales to China.

The Trump administration has drawn a hard line in trade talks with China, demanding a $200 billion cut in the Chinese trade surplus with the United States, sharply lower tariffs and advanced technology subsidies.

U.S. farmers were hoping for a quick resolution to the conflict after China last month threatened tariffs against a range of U.S. goods, including a 25-percent duty on soybeans.

U.S. soybean sales to China over the last four weeks are down 10 percent from a year ago, according to U.S. trade figures. This is a blow to farm country, which helped push President Donald Trump into office in the 2016 election.

Large speculators raised their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week to May 1, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, trimmed their net short position in CBOT wheat and raised their net long position in soybeans.

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral
Editing by Joseph Radford)


Friday, May 4, 2018

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Futures lower in choppy trading after U.S. jobs report - Reuters News

04-May-2018 09:17:41 PM

  • Nonfarm payrolls up 164,000 in April vs est 192,000
  • Average hourly earnings rise 0.1 pct vs est 0.3 pct
  • Apple gains after Berkshire raises stake
  • Futures dip: Dow 0.27 pct, S&P 0.26 pct, Nasdaq 0.35 pct

Adds comments, details, updates prices

By Sruthi Shankar

May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell briefly after the release of April nonfarm payrolls report, which showed job growth rose less than expected and the unemployment rate fell to a 17-1/2-year low.

The Labor Department's closely watched report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate was 3.9 percent. However, wages edged up only 0.1 percent, easing concerns that inflation pressures were increasing.

"It's a goldilocks number ... the top line missed a little bit from consensus expectations, however you had the unemployment rate drop below 4 percent, lowest since December of 2000," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.

"Investors continue to look for signs of inflation and we really didn't get any. I don't see this particular report changing the Fed's path or the recent trend."

After the data, stock futures initially cut some of their losses, before reversing course to drop sharply and finally ended up little changed from their levels before the report.

"It really is a mystery these days to me in terms of how market participants are reacting," Arone said.

At 9:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 65 points, or 0.27 percent. S&P 500 e-minis were down 6.75 points, or 0.26 percent and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 23.5 points, or 0.35 percent.

Investors were also watchful of details after China and the United States had talks in Beijing to settle trade differences.

China has offered to buy more U.S. goods and lower tariffs on some items, including cars, Reuters reported after Xinhua news agency said the talks had made progress on some aspects, though disagreements over other issues remained.

Among stocks, Apple rose 1.3 percent after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake in the iPhone maker.

Alibaba inched up 0.7 percent after reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue, driven by steady sales in its core ecommerce and cloud computing businesses.

Pandora Media jumped 11.8 percent after the music streaming service provider reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss.

Twitter dropped 1.2 percent after disclosing a glitch that led to some passwords being stored in readable text on its internal computer system rather than disguised by a process known as "hashing".

 

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

 

 

 

UPDATE 6-Oil strong as U.S. decision on Iran sanctions looms - Reuters News

04-May-2018 09:22:44 PM

  • Investors "wait-and-see" before Iran deadline
  • European powers work to save Iran nuclear accord

Updates prices in paragraph 2

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday but stayed below recent highs as global supplies remained tight and the market awaited news from Washington on possible new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

Brent crude oil was up 10 cents at $73.72 a barrel by 1315 GMT. The benchmark contract hit a 3-1/2 year closing high of $75.17 on Monday.

U.S. light crude was 15 cents higher at $68.58.

"The energy complex is entering a consolidation phase as a wait-and-see approach takes hold ahead of next week's Iranian sanctions waiver deadline," said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

"Expectations that the United States will pull out of the (Iran nuclear) deal and refrain from extending sanctions relief are keeping both crude markers near three-year peaks," he added.

ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said Brent could reach $80 a barrel by the end of this year, attributing recent strength to rising geopolitical risks and tighter global supply.

"We expect the market to tighten even further in second half 2018," they wrote in a note to clients.

Investors are concerned that sanctions against Iran could cut oil supplies.

Iran's foreign minister said on Thursday that U.S. demands to change its 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers were unacceptable as a deadline set by President Donald Trump for Europeans to "fix" the deal loomed.

Trump has said that unless European allies rectify the "terrible flaws" in the international accord by May 12, he will refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for the oil-producing Islamic Republic.

"Prices reflect a premium for Iran uncertainties. Investors are worried about supplies after Iran took a tough stance in its response to the United States," said Wang Xiao, head of crude research with Guotai Junan Futures.

European powers still want to hand Trump a plan to save the Iran nuclear deal next week. But they have also started work on protecting EU-Iranian business ties if the U.S. president makes good on a threat to withdraw.

Iran resumed its role as a major oil exporter in January 2016 when international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear programme.

Aside from security concerns, growing U.S. crude supplies are capping price gains.

Surging production in the Permian shale basin is outpacing pipeline capacity, while local refining issues have exacerbated oversupply in the region.

The United States now produces more crude oil than top exporter Saudi Arabia.

 

(Additional reporting by Meng Meng in BEIJING and Henning Gloystein in SINGAPORE; Editing by Edmund Blair and Mark Potter)

 

 

 

PRECIOUS-Gold dips, bracing for robust U.S. jobs data - Reuters News

04-May-2018 08:16:04 PM

  • Gold heads for third consecutive weekly decline
  • Stronger than expected jobs data could lift gold
  • Spot gold could bounce to $1,326/oz -technicals

(Updates prices, adds quote)

By Eric Onstad

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices dipped slightly on Friday as the dollar strengthened ahead of key U.S. jobs data expected to underline a strong economy and support the case for more interest rate increases.

Spot gold was down 0.03 percent at $1,310.86 an ounce at 1207 GMT, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell by 0.1 percent to $1,311.70.

U.S. employment data due at 1230 GMT is likely to show that jobs growth accelerated in April after a weather-related slowdown the previous month. Unemployment, meanwhile, is expected to be near a 17-1/2 year low of 4 percent.

Analysts said a strong outcome is already priced in by the market, so gold was unlikely to move much if non-farm payrolls increase by 192,000, in line with the consensus in a Reuters poll of economists.

"But if there is a surprise, and it comes in quite positive and the dollar appreciates, gold is likely to come under pressure again and we don't rule out a test of the $1,300 mark," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann.

"Even if gold dips below $1,300, the past has shown that there is buying interest below that level, so we don't expect gold to drop significantly for the moment."

Expectations of a robust U.S. jobs report supported the dollar index, which weighed on gold. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

The dollar was on track for a weekly gain of about 1 percent.

Spot gold is biased to bounce to resistance at $1,326 an ounce, as suggested by a projection analysis and a falling channel, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 0.13 percent to 865.60 tonnes on Thursday.

In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.1 percent to $16.42 an ounce.

Among platinum-group metals, mainly used for catalysts that clean pollution from car exhaust, platinum shed 0.3 percent to $897.15 an ounce and was on track for a third weekly fall. Palladium added 0.3 percent to $965.

British new car registrations ended a year-long run of declines to rise by an annual 10.4 percent in April, though demand for diesel cars dropped by 25 percent in Europe's second-largest autos market.

Palladium is mostly used in catalysts for petrol vehicles while platinum is largely used in diesel cars.

"Next week Chinese car sales figures are due and if this data is quite positive this could give support to palladium in particular and maybe platinum," Briesemann said.

 

(Additional reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru Editing by David Goodman)

 

 

CBOT Trends-Soy down 10-13 cents, wheat down 6-8 cents, corn steady-down 2 cents - Reuters News

04-May-2018 09:20:45 PM

CHICAGO, May 4 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Friday.

 

WHEAT - Down 6 to 8 cents per bushel

  • End-of-week profit-taking expected following most-active contract's rally to highest since July. Benchmark CBOT July soft red winter wheat contract hit technical resistance at high end of 20-day Bollinger range during overnight trading session.
  • The CBOT reported no May wheat deliveries and 24 K.C. May wheat deliveries. The MGEX reported five May spring wheat deliveries.
  • CBOT July soft red winter wheat last traded down 6 cents at $5.32 per bushel. K.C. July hard red winter wheat was last down 7-1/4 cents at $5.60-1/2 and MGEX July spring wheat  was down 2-1/2 cents at $6.27-1/2 a bushel.

CORN - Steady to down 2 cents per bushel

  • Weakness expected after most-active contract failed to break through 10-month high hit on Thursday. Concerns about U.S. planting pace, short-covering seen limiting declines. Dry weather in Brazil also supportive.
  • The CBOT reported 223 deliveries against May corn futures.
  • CBOT July corn last traded down 1-1/4 cents at $4.06-3/4 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Down 10 to 13 cents per bushel

  • Weakening on worries about export demand after trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials ended without agreements on biggest issues. Benchmark CBOT July soybean futures contract dropped below 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 40-day and 50-day moving averages overnight.
  • Deliveries against CBOT May soybeans totaled 60 contracts. The CBOT reported 52 May soymeal deliveries and five May soyoil deliveries.
  • CBOT July soybeans last traded down 11-1/2 cents at $10.41-3/4 per bushel.

 

(Reporting by Mark Weinraub
Editing by Bill Trott)

 

 

 

VEGOILS-Palm sees strongest gain in 2 weeks on falling stocks forecast - Reuters News

04-May-2018 07:20:44 PM

  • Malaysia April stocks seen falling to 6-month low - poll
  • Palm fell 1.8 pct for the week
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board to release data on May 10

Updates prices

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, May 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures notched up their biggest rise in two weeks in on Friday on expectations of falling inventories, after a sharp decline on Thursday evening and being largely range-bound this week.

The benchmark palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 0.34 percent at 2,343 ringgit ($594.82) a tonne, its biggest gain since April 20. It earlier fell to a low of 2,324 ringgit, its weakest level since August 2016.

The market, however, fell 1.8 percent for the week, marking a second consecutive weekly decline.

Trading volume stood at 34,555 lots of 25 tonnes each at the market close.

"The market is up on expectations that end-stocks will drop," said a futures trader in Singapore. "Consumption could also be supported due to Ramadan," he said, referring to the Muslim fasting month which begins in mid-May this year.

Ramadan typically leads to higher usage of palm oil for cooking in Muslim majority regions, which sees devotees break day-long fasts with communal feasting.

Malaysian palm oil inventories at the end of April are expected to have fallen 4.1 percent to 2.23 million tonnes, their lowest in six months, according to a Reuters poll of nine traders, planters and analysts.

Meanwhile, the survey respondents also forecast that April exports would fall 5.5 percent month-on-month to 1.48 million tonnes, but output would remain flat at 1.57 million tonnes.

Official data for April is scheduled for release by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on May 10 at around 0430 GMT.

Another trader added overnight gains in U.S. soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade provided additional support to palm.

The Chicago July soybean oil contract rose as much as 0.7 percent on Thursday, but was last down 0.5 percent on Friday.

In other related oils, September soybean oil on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.1 percent, while the Dalian September palm oil contract declined 1 percent.

Palm oil is impacted by movements in rival edible oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

 

Palm, soy and crude oil prices, as of 1107 GMT

Contract

Month

Last

Change

Low

High

Volume

MY PALM OIL

MAY8

2310

+11.00

2310

2310

6

MY PALM OIL

JUN8

2339

+11.00

2322

2345

2475

MY PALM OIL

JUL8

2343

+8.00

2324

2348

16624

CHINA PALM OLEIN

SEP8

4950

-36.00

4930

4958

331586

CHINA SOYOIL

SEP8

5766

-6.00

5728

5770

291602

CBOT SOY OIL

JUL8

30.66

-0.16

30.57

30.75

6345

INDIA PALM OIL

MAY8

639.00

+5.90

633.00

640.2

1203

INDIA SOYOIL

MAY8

753.6

+7.30

746.5

756.1

17730

NYMEX CRUDE

JUN8

68.74

+0.31

68.12

68.86

124777

 

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

 

($1 = 3.9320 ringgit)

($1 = 66.6800 Indian rupees)

($1 = 6.3452 Chinese yuan)

 

(Reporting by Emily Chow and Liz Lee; Editing by Sunil Nair and Mark Potter)

 

 

 

FOREX-Dollar steady after jobs data disappoints - Reuters News

04-May-2018 09:21:51 PM

  • Dollar steady, after initial drop on jobs data
  • Index holds below 2018 high reached on Wednesday

Updates prices, market activity and comments to U.S. market open, new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of currencies on Friday, after briefly dropping on disappointing U.S. employment data for April.

The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected and the unemployment rate dropped to near a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent as some jobless Americans left the labor force.

Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents, or 0.1 percent, last month after gaining 0.2 percent in March. That left the annual increase in average hourly earnings at 2.6 percent.

"The U.S. report seems pretty soft in tone on a headline basis and in the details as well," said Erik Nelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. "It's a little surprising to see the dollar remain so resilient."

Against a basket of its peers, the dollar was up 0.13 percent on the day at 92.535, little changed from where it traded before the data. It initially dropped to 92.354 on the news.

The dollar index reached a 2018 high of 92.834 on Wednesday as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates while other central banks including the European Central Bank (ECB) will act more slowly.

"The story in the last few days has been the disappointment over the ECB and the UK to start raising interest rates in the wake of the Fed and unless we see data picking up meaningfully, the dollar will outperform in the coming weeks," said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at NAB in London.

The sharp rise in the dollar in recent weeks - it broke above a 200-day moving average this week for the first time in a year - took hedge funds and other investors by surprise. They had built up record short bets on the dollar and were forced to cover some of those positions, lifting the greenback even more.

Wells Fargo's Nelson sees further upside in the greenback as likely limited, however, saying that pessimism over other economies may be overdone.

"Everyone's gotten really pessimistic about the euro zone economies and I think that's maybe reaching a breaking point," Nelson said. "I think the economies are strong enough in those countries to keep central banks on track to keep normalizing monetary policy."

 

 

 

TREASURIES-Yields slide on softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data - Reuters News

04-May-2018 09:24:23 PM

  • 10-year, 30-year yields slide to two-week lows
  • 2-year to 10-year yield curve tightest in two weeks
  • Fed still seen hiking in June, but pace is gradual

New throughout, updates prices, yields, market activity and comments; adds byline and table

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday after a government report showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs last month, with slower wage growth than expected, suggesting the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes will be gradual.

Yields on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes and 30-year yields slid to two-week lows, while those on two-year noted fell to a one-week trough.

The Labor Department said U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 164,000, lower than market expectations for a rise of 192,000 jobs. Average earnings growth, a closely-monitored inflation indicator, grew by just 0.1 percent in April after rising 0.3 percent the previous month.

"This is not enough for the Fed to pause. They will still hike in the June meeting," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist, at Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.

"If people were worried about a faster pace of hike, this report should calm those ...The curve will likely resume its flattening bias in the long term, but it won't invert in the foreseeable future," he added.

In morning trading, U.S. benchmark 10-year yields fell to 2.914 percent from 2.946 percent late on Thursday.

U.S. 30-year bonds slid to 3.089 percent, from Thursday's 3.121 percent.

U.S. two-year yields were also down at 2.480 percent, from 2.484 percent on Thursday.

The yield curve flattened again after the report, with the spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year notes contracting to 43.90 basis points, the tightest in two weeks.

The flattening yield curve is being driven by doubts among investors that inflation will pick up over the long term.

 

(Additional reporting by Richard Leong
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and David Gregorio)