U.S. soy dips as LatAm output weighs; wheat steady
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures edged down, dropping for a third straight day as forecasts of higher South American output pressured the market ahead of a key government report on global demand and supply of agricultural products.
"Brazil and Argentine crops are looking very big which is a bearish factor for the soybean market," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief commodities analyst at Tokyo-based Fujitomi Co.
India to import less vegoils for first time in ten years-Mistry
KUALA LUMPUR, March 9 (Reuters) - India, the world's No.1 vegetable oil buyer, may import less for the first time in a decade as domestic production has improved in the year to October 2011, a leading industry analyst said on Wednesday.
Dorab Mistry, who handles the trading portfolio for Godrej International, said India's edible oil production is set to rise 11.3 percent to nearly 7 million tonnes.
Gold tracks oil lower; Libya, physicals may help
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Gold tracked oil lower and was under pressure from firmer equities, but bargain hunting from jewellers as well as worries that violence in Libya and the Middle East would spread could offer support for the metal, which has dropped from a lifetime high.
"I feel it is consolidating, waiting for any lead out of Libya. We'll see what happens on (Friday) prayer day around the Gulf, and then we'll see whether or not there is need for concern. I think that's the focus we have to follow," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Melbourne.
Oil falls, stocks up but investors still jittery
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for a second day as OPEC considered raising production, pushing up Asian stocks although investors remained on edge because of the turmoil in the Middle East.
"Oil has stopped rising for now, but it hasn't really retreated to levels that allows aggressive buying in risky assets, so investors will still be jittery," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at Nikko Cordial Securities.
Palm oil prices seen steady, before sharp H2 fall-analyst
KUALA LUMPUR, March 8 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices will stay firm over the next two to three months, before investors book profits to send prices plummeting by as much as 30 percent towards year end, a leading analyst said on Tuesday.
Palm oil prices have surged in recent months, on concerns that seasonally heavy rains have stalled harvesting in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and major soyoil exporting countries have suffered dry weather.
Oil : Crude slips to below $105 as concerns over Libya ease
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude dropped for a second day, dipping below $105 on Wednesday, after reassurances from OPEC members of ample spare capacity eased anxiety about export losses from Libya, Africa's third-largest oil producer.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is in talks about boosting oil supplies, Kuwait's oil minister said on Tuesday, but some in the group were reluctant to open the taps, saying world supply is comfortable despite the loss of around one million barrels of Libyan crude per day.
COMMODITIES: Oil down as OPEC eyes hike, coffee at 34-yr top
NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - Commodity prices fell broadly on Tuesday, led lower by Brent crude's near 2 percent slide after Kuwait's oil minister said OPEC is considering raising output to help replace war-torn member Libya's lost supplies. "It's profit-taking as we have a stronger dollar," said Zachary Oxman, managing director of TrendMax Futures.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Oil falls, stocks up but investors still jittery
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters)- Oil prices fell on Wednesday as OPEC considered raising production, pushing up Asian stocks although investors remained on edge due to worries that unrest in the Middle East could spread to other oil exporting nations.
The euro nursed heavy losses early in Asia as worries about European sovereign debt problems tightened their grip following the recent credit rating downgrade for Greece.
U.S. crude inventories rise, gasoline off-API
NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week, by 3.8 million barrels, even as imports fell, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 400,000-barrel draw in crude oil stocks.
China Farm Produce Prices Will Rise Over Next 10 Years (Source: CME)
Prices of agricultural products will "definitely" rise in both domestic and international markets over the next 10 years, due to factors including limited resources and rising labor costs and demand, Qian Keming, director of the ministry's Department of Market and Economic Information, said. The government's policies should go with the trend, aiming to keep those price increases at reasonable levels, Qian said during an online chat on the China Economy Network, the website of the state-run Economic Daily, adding that an annual increase of 10% in farm produce prices can keep farmers active in planting and production. The agriculture minister said previously the government would prevent unreasonable and dramatic price increases while allowing for reasonable rises to ensure supply, amid citizen complaints over rapid food price increases and farmers exiting planting due to low income. "It's a general trend that farm produce prices will run at high levels in the next 10 years," he said. "We must be well prepared."
Vegetable prices rose 20% last year, while fruit prices were up 14% and grain prices increased about 10%, Zhang Ping, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference last week. Prices of food, which account for about 30% of China's consumer price index basket, rose more than 7% in 2010, driving last year's CPI increase to 3.3%, exceeding the government's target of 3%. China will make stabilizing consumer prices a top priority this year and contain inflation increase around 4%, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Saturday during the parliament's annual session.
UN Rapporteur: Eco-Farming Best Way To Feed The World (Source: CME)
Reducing farmers' dependence on oil will be key to feeding the world's rapidly expanding population in the face of climate change and rising fuel prices, the United Nations' special rapporteur on food said. In an interview to coincide with the release of his report on feeding the world in the 21st century, Olivier De Schutter said promoting natural production techniques is the only sustainable way to guard against future crises and stop food prices increasing in-line with oil. "We set up our farming techniques in the 1920s when we thought there would be a never-ending supply of cheap oil," he told Dow Jones Newswires. "Now we are facing a situation where expensive oil and gas and the influence of climate change on yields are scaring us. "Developing farming in a way which makes it less addicted to fossil energy is much more promising. In developing countries, we may have to leapfrog the stage of industrial agriculture and find ways to produce that are less addicted to fossil fuels."
Developing new ways to feed the world has become increasingly pressing in the past year as record-high global food prices have pushed an extra 44 million people into poverty, according to World Bank estimates. Fears of a crisis similar to the widespread unrest of 2007-08 have grown since the price of oil surged to highs seen 29 months ago due to violence in the Middle East. "The oil factor, which has so far not been a driving factor this season, could become an element like it was in 2008," said senior economist with the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization Abdolreza Abbassian. The second price-spike in four years has propelled food security to the top of the international agenda. But while the immediate causes can be blamed on poor 2010 world harvests, observers warn that a broader structural shift is underway as producers struggle to increase world output by 70% over the next 40 years to feed what is expected to be a population of 9 billion.
Experts agree that finding ways to boost the output of Africa's 80 million smallholder farmers will be crucial. What they disagree on is how. Many argue that genetically modified crops and more powerful technology--continuing the methods of the "Green Revolution" of the last century--is the way forward. But De Schutter disagrees. Instead he says ecological methods which enhance soils productivity and protect crops against pests by relying on beneficial trees, plants, animals and insects will be more sustainable and effective by helping boost production in emerging nations, where demand is greatest. "There has been an attempt to relaunch the new agricultural revolution these days but its really very financially unsustainable for farmers," he said. "Those who are hungry today are those who have very small farms to cultivate. We need to help them to produce in ways without expensive agricultural inputs."
Time for the Next Agricultural Revolution? (Source: CME)
The term "Green Revolution" was first used in 1968 by former director of the U.S. Agency for International Developments William Gaud to describe a set of new technologies that had quadrupled yields in the developing world and reaped a record harvest the year before. "We are on the verge of an agricultural revolution," he told his peers at a meeting in Washington. "It is not a violet Red Revolution like that of the Soviets, nor is it a White Revolution like that of the Shah of Iran. I call it the Green Revolution. This new revolution can be as significant and as beneficial to mankind as the industrial revolution of a century and a half ago." Now, as leaders debate how to combat record food prices and producers struggle to meet rapidly-growing demand, the world is looking for a new agricultural revolution. And some are beginning to question whether last century's approach was, in fact, green enough. Experts agree that the global agricultural system is facing an unprecedented challenge.
The United Nations forecasts that food production will need to rise 70% by 2050 to feed an estimated world population of more than 9 billion people. Dietary habits are also changing, particularly in emerging nations. Meat consumption is predicted to increase from 37.4 kg a person a year in 2000 to over 52 kg/person/year by 2050, so that by mid-century, half of total cereal production may go to increasing meat production. Yet debate over how to satisfy our growing hunger continues. And while many leaders are committing more and more funds to agriculture, "under-investment in agriculture is [often] compounded by extensive misinvestment," the World Bank noted in a recent report. UN special rapporteur on food Olivier De Schutter argues that the key is to reduce our dependence on traditional farming inputs, like fertilizers and oil, which are set to push up food prices as they become more expensive. Instead of being resource-intensive, farming must now become knowledge-intensive.
In a new study, he says that using ecologically sustainable methods, like planting nitrogen-fixing trees in fields and animals to reduce pests, can double output from farming in the developing world, where it is needed most, and make production more sustainable in the face of environmental pressures.
PREVIEW-China's commodity imports to slacken after Jan surge
SHANGHAI, March 8 (Reuters) - China's imports of commodities, most of which posted strong increases in January, may finally show signs of easing in February as an extended holiday season disrupted shipments and high prices cut orders.
Market participants are cautious on the mid-term outlook for imports, particularly iron ore and copper, as Beijing's credit tightening has already made it difficult for firms to secure loans to fund purchases. Monetary tightening measures are also seen to create headwinds for overall commodities demand.
IMF: Signs of overheating in emerging markets
WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - Emerging market economies that powered the global recovery may be growing too fast for their own good as inflation pressures build, a top International Monetary Fund official said on Monday.
China, Brazil and other fast-growing nations have struggled to contain inflation and control heavy inflows of investment money. Although the IMF has been warning for months of the risks of price pressure, the comments by the Fund's first deputy managing director, John Lipsky, suggested the IMF is growing increasingly concerned.
PRECIOUS-Gold rises above $1,430/oz as Libya simmers
LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - Gold rose above $1,430 an ounce on Tuesday, supported by clashes in Libya, but remained well off the previous session's record high as a retreat in oil prices prompted some investors to cash in gains in the metal.
"Despite the escalation of the unrest in Libya, gold has been struggling to gain a foothold above the old highs with some investors seemingly happy to lock in profit at these levels," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
FOREX-Euro slips, signs of short-term correction seen
LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - The euro slipped versus the dollar on Tuesday, pausing from a rally spurred by expectations of a euro zone interest rate rise and raising the possibility of a downward correction on concerns about euro zone debt problems.
"As oil has come off people have squared some of their positions and now we could see the euro continue to edge a bit lower," said Adrian Schmidt, currency strategist at Lloyds.
Wheat drops for 2nd day as demand slows, soy down
SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures lost more ground taking the declines in two sessions to nearly 5 percent as slowing demand and improved crop weather in the United States continued to hammer the market. "The main thing that we see is that investor demand in wheat has moderated," said Abah Ofon, an agricultural commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
OPEC production hike talk helps equities
LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - Oil fell from recent highs on reports that OPEC may boost production, prompting some recovery on equity markets. "If oil stays in a $100-$120 per barrel range for around half a year the global economy could see a severe slowdown, pushing investors away from stocks, so everything depends on the Middle East now", said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments.
